Breeders Cup Classic - Final Field Analysis
- The AntePoster (H)
- Oct 21, 2024
- 13 min read
Updated: Oct 29, 2024
Date of race: 2 November 2024 Date of analysis: 29 October 2024
BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC – FINAL FIELD GUIDE
CITY OF TROY (Tr. A P O’Brien) | Last 5 runs: 1-9111 | Draw: 3 of 14
Brilliant colt who would be unbeaten bar an inexplicable blowout in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket back in May. Has since racked up three successive victories at the highest level, including last time out in the ultra-competitive Juddmonte International at York in August (Arc winner back in fourth, Champion Stakes runner-up in second). This son of Justify is now rated second only to Goliath in the global rankings of horses in training, so must have a chance of winning this. But bettors should be under no illusion that he is going into an environment that is very new: a different surface to anything he has raced on before (dirt), a dozen or so competitors who are proven on such a surface, an environment in which gate speed (i.e. the ability to break quickly from the gates) is key and where US horses typically have an edge over their European counterparts, and the hustle and bustle of a crowded field around a tight circuit in which no quarter will be given and those who break slowly may not only lose position but also face unpleasant kickback. City of Troy can win this race if he takes to the surface, but there are many unknowns, and in contrast to a middle-distance race on turf he could also potentially lose this in the first couple of furlongs. Has drawn inside, which increases his chances if he breaks well.
Betting observations
A wave of British and Irish money has forced this colt’s price down into a level that looks non-sensical. Anyone wanting to back O’Brien’s colt to give him the Classic winner his bosses crave should wait until the day and bet in the US pools, where they are likely to get a better price.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
7/4 | 5/2 | ★★ |
FIERCENESS (Tr. T Pletcher) | Last 5 runs: 31011 | Draw: 9 of 14
Most talented of the US three-year-old crop. Huge win on debut, equally huge flop next time out when stepped up to G1 level (albeit in the mud). Ignored in betting for Breeders Cup Juvenile last November as a result but blitzed that field by more than six lengths at 17/1. This season has seen a repeat of this in-and-out form cycle: dull seasonal start (encountered trouble at start of race), then oozed class with a wide-margin romp in Florida Derby before then finishing well down the field in the Kentucky Derby having missed the break. Has since recorded back-to-back wins for the first time in the G2 Jim Dandy and the G1 Travers, the latter crucially his first win over this 10-furlong trip. Trainer Pletcher now thinks he is stronger and better than ever, in which case he has a big chance of winning here, not least as some of the key other pace players (Dornoch, Seize the Grey) have bypassed this race and the Del Mar track has been favouring horses running on or near the lead this autumn. One of the likelier winners of this race, for all that doubts remain over the suitability of this ten-furlong stamina test and his possible mental fragility when faced with adversity. Draws more to the outside, which is what connections wanted, but inside of speed horse Arthur’s Ride.
Betting observations
The 9/2 offered by Bet365 at the time of writing is likely to be the best price available to bettors who like this horse. He is certain to be the shortest price of the American contingent and may well vie for favouritism on Saturday. Win-only play for those who like him given his inconsistent record.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
9/2 | 3/1 | ★★★★ |
FOREVER YOUNG (Tr. Y Yahagi) | Last 5 runs: 11-113 | Draw: 1 of 14
Ultra-talented grandson of Japanese champion Deep Impact whose race record stands at seven runs and six wins, with his only defeat coming when beaten just two noses into third in the Kentucky Derby after plenty went wrong for him in that race. Rested for the summer before returning with a straightforward win earlier this month in Japan’s Dirt Cup, which was purely a prep run for this challenge. Likely to have to do this the hard way, as he is not the fastest from the gate, and being too far back on this racetrack has not been a recipe for success at Del Mar’s most recent meet. No denying his talent, however, and genuine claims of taking the spoils back to Japan for the first time if getting clear run from his inside draw (1 of 14). That is a question mark, however.
Betting observations
Having drawn the very inside post, his best price of 6/1 is in line with the Del Mar morning line and looks about right.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
6/1 | 6/1 | ★★★ |
SIERRA LEONE (Tr. C Brown) | Last 5 runs: 12323 | Draw: 11 of 14
The owners of City of Troy have another bullet to fire in this race with this talented son of Gun Runner, whose racing style – to spend most of the race in the rear of the field and come with a late charge – has seen him deliver high-class performances in numerous big races this season, but with just the G1 Bluegrass (Derby prep run) to show for it in terms of actual victories. Like Forever Young, he too was just nosed out in the Derby, but there – as in other races this season – his tendency not to run in a straight line in the final couple of furlongs has come at a cost. Most recently finished third to Fierceness in the G1 Travers, so has work to do to turn that form around, and his deep-closing style is far from ideal with the Breeders Cup at Del Mar. That said, if the pace turns out to be very hot this colt is an obvious candidate to pick up the pieces. Draws wide, but that looks neutral to his chances
Betting observations
Once again, the 12/1 available looks generous relative to the price this colt is likely to start on the day, for all that he doesn’t appeal as a bet. With this eye-catching running style and familiarity with the US betting community he will take money, despite having lost his last four races.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
12/1 | 12/1 | ★★★ |
USHBA TESORO (Tr. N Takagi) | Last 5 runs: 15-122 | Draw: 7 of 14
Very high-class Japanese horse with an excellent strike rate and a stellar track record in some of the biggest races in the world, to the point where he has now accumulated almost £13 million in earnings. Top performances on his CV include a win in the Dubai Cup in 2023, a second placing in the same race this year (albeit well behind easy winner Laurel River), and a previous close second to Senor Buscador in this year’s Saudi Cup. Like Sierra Leone, Takagi’s charge has a deep closing style that may not be ideally suited to Del Mar, and he was only fifth in this race last year (held at Santa Anita). Couldn’t win his prep race for this in Japan at 2/5, but unlikely to have been fully primed for that effort, so if the leaders go too hard he would be one of the obvious beneficiaries.
Betting observations
The way Del Mar racetrack has been playing this season (speed-favouring) makes him a less likely winner. Looks priced about right now.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
12/1 | 12/1 | ★★★ |
HIGHLAND FALLS (Tr. B Cox) | Last 5 runs: 42121 | Draw: 2 of 14
Four-year-colt looking to give Godolphin their first-ever win in the Classic. Nothing in this horse’s first nine races suggested he was remotely capable of winning a race like this. However, he took a big step forward when last seen in the G1 Jockey Club Cup at Saratoga in early September, taking on the favourite Arthur’s Ride early and harrying him for most of the race until that one faded, then holding off the closers to win by four lengths. With Arthur’s Ride disappointing hugely on that occasion, the form of that race looks a bit suspect while his final furlong was extremely slow, but credit is nonetheless due given the vicious pace war he found himself in. It’s just possible that this son of Curlin is only now coming into his own, and he possesses both tactical speed and grit. Interesting, not least with good draw in 2 (doubtful starting speed on both sides).
Betting observations
Price looks too generous, and he is recommended each-way when four places become available.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
20/1 | 20/1 | ★★★★ |
ARTHUR’S RIDE (Tr. W Mott) | Last 5 runs: 22-115 | Draw: 12 of 14
Mildly promising as a two-year-old (two runs, two second places) but then off for the best part of two years with injury problems. He returned at Saratoga in June this year in spectacular style, winning by 13 lengths and recording a huge speed figure for good measure. That duly saw him start as low as 7/1 at the same venue for the G1 Whitney Stakes, a race he won comfortably on a muddy track, recording another huge speed figure after leading from “gate to wire” (also worth noting that last year’s Whitney winner (White Abarrio) went on to win this race too). Most recently disappointed at odds-on behind Highland Falls in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, having been harried for the lead and eventually throwing in the towel, trailing in nine lengths behind that rival. Interesting that Bill Mott – a trainer who doesn’t overface his horses – is persevering again in this even deeper race. There’s not a huge amount of pace in this line-up, so the possibility of him taking this race by the scruff of the neck and leading all the way is not negligible. That said, he’s drawn wider than ideal in 12.
Betting observations
Overpriced for such a lightly raced son of Tapit who has notched up two huge speed figures this year. Absolutely no guarantee of him reproducing those peak efforts here and may come up woefully short like he did in the Travers, but 25/1 is very reasonable compensation for that risk on a track that has been playing friendly to speed. Four places should become available for each-way backers later in the week, though 25/1 may not hold until then.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
25/1 | 15/1 | ★★★★ |
NEXT (Tr. W Cowans) | Last 5 runs: 1-1111 | Draw: 14 of 14
Six-year-old with a cult following a series of facile wins over what the Americans call marathon trips (11 to 14 furlongs). Indeed, he has won nine of his last ten, often by extraordinary margins, prompting connections to run him in this year’s Breeder Cup. But they have a problem in that this race (on his preferred dirt surface) is at ten furlongs, shorter than the distances he is used to excelling over, whereas the (now rejected) alternative of running in the BC Turf would have given him more distance. The key piece of form that gives him a shout here is his crushing of Crupi by nine lengths in the G2 Brooklyn Stakes at Aqueduct, for which he earned a huge figure over just a furlong further than this race. If the runner-up ran to his best there that looks form to take seriously (given that Crupi finished a close second to Arthur’s ride in the Whitney), but that Pletcher horse has also been beaten out of sight in numerous races (most recently behind Tapit Trice) so that has to be open to doubt. Has also got the worst of the draw.
Betting observations
Perhaps the most difficult horse to weigh up from a wagering perspective. In raging form with blowout wins and decent speed figures – but never in a top-notch field, and always over a longer trip, while as an additional negative he’s drawn an appalling post. Doesn’t appeal as a bet, but he will surely start shorter than his current price (cf. best fixed odds vs. Del Mar morning line).
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
25/1 | 8/1 | ★★★ |
NEWGATE (Tr. B Baffert) | Last 5 runs: 2219-3 | Draw: 13 of 14
Four-year-old son of Into Mischief who took a big step forward at three, recording his first success at G1 level by winning the Santa Anita Handicap from Subsanador in July 2023. Flopped when taken to the Middle East for the Dubai World Cup, coming ninth of 12 and beaten 18 lengths. Sole start since came last month when he was edged out in a close three- way finish in the G1 California Crown behind old rival Subsanador. Much more will be required to win this, so everything depends on him taking a big step forward from that first start in six months. Possible contender at a price if Baffert has worked some magic in the interim and very eye-catching workout in run-up to this race (fastest of 51 workouts over five furlongs at Santa Anita on 20 October). Has drawn a very bad post position, however.
Betting observations
In the original write-up The AntePoster found this horse interesting, but that appeal has diminished with his dreadful draw.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
33/1 | 20/1 | ★★ |
TAPIT TRICE (Tr. T Pletcher) | Last 5 runs: 53-141 | Draw: 10 of 14
Another four-year old son of Tapit, this one started his career with four straight wins and consequently entered the starting gates for the Kentucky Derby as 5-1 second favourite. Couldn’t cope with the hurly-burly of that race but can boast plenty of decent form since, often coming from well off the pace. Although his victory over Skippylongstocking last time out in the G2 Woodward Stakes was not nearly good enough to win this, his striking five-length defeat of Highland Falls at Monmouth Park in July reads very well indeed in the light of that rival’s subsequent exploits. Will have to run the race of his life, but that’s not beyond the bounds of possibility, as the talent has always been there. Indifferent draw.
Betting observations
Reasonable each-way play, one of those cases where the inconsistency of a horse can be the bettor’s friend. Although he is as likely to finish at the tail of the field as run in the first five, his best effort on a going day puts him in the mix.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
33/1 | 30/1 | ★★★★ |
DERMA SOTOGAKE (Tr. H Otanashi) | Last 5 runs: 162-56 | Draw: 6 of 14
The third member of the Japanese squad in this race and by far the biggest price of the three, which is explained by his indifferent prep run in Japan a month ago (same race as Ushba Tesoro) and his poor run behind Laurel River in the Dubai World Cup on his previous outing in March. Go back a bit further, however, and there are bits and pieces of very high-class form on his resume, most notably a close second to White Abarrio in the BC Classic a year ago at Santa Anita. He also wasn’t disgraced on his only other start in the US (sixth of 18 in the 2023 Kentucky Derby after missing the break). Has an excellent draw, and if he’s on a going day this son of Mind Your Biscuits could easily outrun his odds, which remain in overly generous territory.
Betting observations.
Hasn’t run well in 2024, but this inconsistent sort has bounced back from a bad run before, not least when second in this last year, and could get a good trip in a field without that much pace. Will surely start shorter (cf. big discrepancy between best European fixed odds and Del Mar Morning Line), sporting each-way play at a price that is twice that of most bookmakers. Four places for such a bet would appeal more, but doubt 50/1 available by the time those terms are offered.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
50/1 | 20/1 | ★★★★ |
PYRENEES (Tr. C Devaux) | Last 5 runs: 03-122 | Draw: 8 of 14
Lightly-raced horse who missed almost all of his three-year-old season due to injury. Has turned into a nice type aged four and recently recorded two respectable runner-up places in Grade 1 races, namely behind Kingsbarns in the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs and more recently behind Highland Falls in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga. Just possible he has more upside, but this race is a far steeper task than those recent races, and this son of Into Mischief would have to take a massive leap forward to even contend for a place. Draw fine.
Betting observations
No appeal even at 40/1. He’s being aimed too high.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
40/1 | 30/1 | ★ |
SENOR BUSCADOR (Tr. T Fincher) | Last 5 runs: 21345 | Draw: 5 of 14
Six-year-old son of Mineshaft was belatedly in the form of his life at the start of the year, running the high-class National Treasure close in the G1 Pegasus World Cup and then coming from the clouds to take the G1 Saudi Cup just a month later. In no sort of form since resuming his campaign in California this autumn, however, and the Classic being held at Del Mar – a track that has a short finishing straight and has recently favoured those racing up with the pace – looks an unlikely venue for this stalwart stayer to threaten the podium places, even if he were to return to his best. Draw fine.
Betting observations.
50/1 looks a very generous price on the face of it for a reigning Saudi Cup winner and Pegasus World Cup runner-up, but it doesn’t appeal at this speed-favouring venue for a horse who appears to be out of form.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
50/1 | 30/1 | ★★ |
MIXTO (Tr. D O’Neill) | Last 5 runs: 53521 | Draw: 4 of 14
One of the features of the Breeders Cup is allocating automatic starting berths to horses who have won certain races during the season. This “Win and You’re In” status applied to the Grade 1 Pacific Classic on 1 November, which was won by this son of Good Magic at a price of 22/1. That race was the weakest of any Grade 1 run in the US this year with relevance to the Breeders Cup Classic, and none of Mixto’s previous 13 races give him any claims of finishing in the top half of this field. Completely overmatched.
Betting observations
He would make strong appeal in a betting market for the last-placed finisher so makes zero appeal either to win or place at this antepost price. Three figures will almost certainly be available on the day, and they wouldn’t appeal either.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
66/1 | 30/1 | ★ |
RATTLE N ROLL (Tr. K McPeek) | Last 5 runs: 12643 | Draw: 15 of 14 (reserve)
Five-year-old son of Connect whose career-best performance came as a juvenile when winning the G1 Futurity at Keeneland in October 2021. That form looks extraordinarily weak with hindsight and he hasn’t risen to those heights since, but did rattle off three G3 wins in the spring of 2023. Less good in three more races that summer and autumn before taking a year away from the track and returning a month ago with a non-threatening third in the G2 Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs. Very bold – or foolhardy – move by connections to pitch him in the toughest race run on dirt anywhere in the world this year, so presumably trainer Ken McPeek still thinks he has a top-class horse on his hands. The evidence of the last 3½ years would suggest otherwise, and to compound matters he will be the widest horse in the field if he draws in from the reserve list.
Betting observations
Stunning training performance by Ken McPeek to pull off this year’s Kentucky Derby/Oaks double but getting this horse to even place here would be a feat for the ages. No betting appeal.
Best fixed European odds | Del Mar Morning Line | Price appeal |
100/1 | 30/1 | ★ |
Pick your winner!
City of Troy
Fierceness
Forever Young
Sierra Leone
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