Breeders Cup Distaff: Time to reach for another arrow at 7/1

A couple of months ago we put up the filly Nitrogen as a must-play pick for the Breeders Cup Distaff at 6/1. She is now into 11/8 best price. Which you might think is a good bit of business, as this star filly looks comfortable the best filly going into the Distaff.

However, there's a potential fly in this otherwise pleasing ointment.

Nitrogen is currently being pointed – for the second time in a row – to a Group 1 against the boys, namely the Jockey Club Gold Cup in a week's time. We are doubtful about her winning that contest over 10 furlongs against likely opponent Forever Young, but it does indicate (following her stellar effort behind Sovereignty in the Whitney Stakes) that connections have not altogether given up the possibility of pointing her to Breeders Cup Classic at Keeneland in six weeks' time. And if she were to win, the temptation would be huge, particularly as current favourite Sovereignty is struggling with foot issues.

While we suspect a tilt at the Classic remains less likely than a Distaff bid, we want the other key filly in the Distaff on board now, as we believe she is a live player even with Nitrogen in the field, and suspect she will start favourite if that one is diverted to face the boys.

The filly in question is Fully Subscribed, and she shouldn't be 7/1.

This Chad Brown 4-year-old has won four of her last six starts, and while she was no match for Nitrogen in the Ogden Phipps back in June (second but thrashed out of sight, like every other runner), her trajectory show she has made bundles of improvement since.

In particular, her last-time out defeat of decent yardstick Scottish Lassie (who she had beaten narrowly the time before) by a sensational nine lengths was extraordinarily impressive. As too was the Beyer time figure she was assigned (106), which is wickedly fast. Indeed, Fully Subscribed's speed figure progression in her last three races on that scale reveals a pattern of 93–98–106, clearly indicative of a filly who has taken a big step forward at the age of four.

For comparison with her other key rivals in the Distaff, neither Splendora nor Counting Stars has recorded a Beyer in excess of 100. What's more, Splendora (last year's Filly and Mare Sprint champ over a much shorter distance) has never won over the Distaff distance of nine furlongs, while Counting Stars disappointed last time in the Alabama Stakes after two successive wins against fellow 3-year-olds that seemed to have put her firmly in the Distaff picture.

Last but not least, Fully Subscribed has an appealing running style with the Distaff in mind. Whereas Splendora and Nitrogen like to be very forwardly placed, ideally leading in the former case, and Counting Stars also does her best within close range of the pace, Fully Subscribed is more of a hold-up horse. She likes to launch a bid from off the pace.

And in a race where the other main contenders will want to be on or close to the pace, Fully Subscribed is the one filly of the key contenders with a different pattern of energy distribution, sitting off the fractions early and unleashing a late surge. What's more, her victory in the Personal Ensign proved that she didn't even need a fast pace to produce a devastating late run.

We are writing this article now because

• Fully Subscribed's price is already out of alignment with reality

  
  

• Rival Splendora runs tonight and a poor run will trigger a price movement on the Brown filly

  
  

• Nitrogen runs next week and the narrative over a possible Classic bid will gather steam

Either way, we expect Fully Subscribed to shorten as the Breeders Cup at Keeneland looms larger on the horizon, and obviously dramatically so if Nitrogen's connections cannot resist going for the biggest prize of all on 31 October.

This filly is an each-way recommendation, as her chances of placing are outstanding even if Nitrogen does run in the Distaff.

Recommendation: Back Fully Subscribed each-way at 7/1 to win the Breeders Cup Distaff at Keeneland racecourse on Saturday 31 October. Price available with William Hill, Paddy Power and Skybet. The 13/2 with Unibet is also fine, and even the generally available 6/1 is fair.