Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint: Take a shot with 20/1 outsider

We are little more than a month away from the Breeders Cup, and a couple of the dirt races have barely made for any headlines yet at this early stage. One of those is the Dirt Mile, a race in which "participant clarity" rarely appears until the week leading up the race due to the simultaneous appeal of both the Sprint and the Classic as alternatives for many potential contenders.

The other is the Filly & Mare Sprint, one of the less prestigious races of Day 2. Here UK and Irish bookmakers have decided unanimously that there is a "Big 3" and have aligned their prices accordingly: 9/4 (Ways and Means), 5-1 (Sweet Azteca), 5-1 (Explora).

We want to take on this trio of favourites for different reasons:

Ways and Means: A stunning victory last time out in the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes. But this came at Saratoga, her playground. The record of Chad Brown's filly there reads 1211111. Wowzers. Trouble is, the Breeders Cup is not being held at Saratoga (never has been, never will be). Away from "The Spa", the race record or Ways and Means reads a rather less formidable 2-4-1-5-3-2. She has never won outside of New York State, and her only Breeders Cup attempt (F&M Sprint, the race for which she is now 9/4 favourite) saw her finish fifth... after starting favourite at exactly the kind of price she is trading at now (2/1).

Sweet Azteca: This one has bundles of talent too, and it's difficult to criticize her lifetime race record of nine wins from eleven runs. For good measure, a number of those performances have earned gaudy speed figures (multiple 100+ Beyers). But this mare is now six, and she missed the last two Breeders Cups with "issues" of one kind or another. Another question mark is that Sweet Azteca has been bossing weak fields in California for the last couple of years, and things will be rather different in a championship race in Kentucky with a larger field than she has been used to – the average field size of her last six races works out at just 5.4. Those are often conditions under which it's easier to shine bright.

Explora: Good on her day, and most impressive winner of the G1 Test two races back, but she can be downright disappointing sometimes. She's been beaten at odds-on three times now, most recently in the G3 Dogwood Stakes last time out. That absolutely wasn't supposed to happen at 4/11. Explora just doesn't strike us as very formidable, and we're surprised bookmakers didn't push her odds out at all after the Dogwood defeat.

By contrast, there is very little alignment in prices outside of these three favourites. In many cases there is a discrepancy of 8-12 points in the prices of horses quoted, and in one particular instance we think a few bookmakers have badly underestimated a really good filly on the back of a recent defeat: Rusty Arnold's Kilwin at 20/1.

You're getting that price because Kilwin was well and truly dusted by Ways and Means in the G1 Ballerina last time out on 29 August. She was beaten just over five lengths. That's the bad news.

But on the positive front, this year's Ballerina was seriously deep, containing no less than five Grade 1 winners. Coming second to a track specialist who "freaked" on the day (and more importantly on that track) was far from a disgrace, especially as Kilwin closed from a long way back, having three of the above-mentioned G1 winners behind her. She was also giving a weight penalty away to the winner and to the fillies who came 3rd, 4th and 5th.

Bear in mind too that Kilwin doesn't know how to run a bad race. Her dirt form record (has also run on turf multiple times) now reads 1-1-1-2. This year's Ballerina was only her second run back after a long layoff, and she has a right to step forward again after almost 11 months away from the track.

In summary, aside from a peak-form Ways and Means (who has rarely peaked away from Saratoga) and an on-song Sweet Azteca (who has yet to make it to a Breeders Cup, and has faced small fields in her last few races), we believe Kilwin is one of the fillies most likely to win this race. The 20/1 just doesn't compute.

We will play her each-way, as the 4/1 place part of such a bet is very attractive too.

Recommendation: Back Kilwin each-way at 20/1 to win the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Keeneland racecourse on Saturday 31 October. Price available with William Hill and Unibet. The 16/1 available with Bet365 is also appealing.