Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf: Canada's Moira a Sky(bet) diamond

An interesting feature of the marquee races on the turf in this year’s Breeders Cup is the significant difference in their relative strength. The Mile looks very strong, with a clutch of top Europeans taking on two of the strongest candidates that the US has sent to this race in recent years. Meanwhile, the Turf looks much weaker, with the most striking feature here being the absence of almost all the top European middle-distance horses in training.

The Filly and Mare Turf suffers from a similar problem. Not a single representative has come here from the Prix de l’Opera, for example – except the two that finished last in that race, and one of these had been scratched a couple hours before this article was written. Emily Upjohn, who would presumably have been favourite for this race having finished third in the Opera (behind the two fillies who went on to fill the same positions in the Arc de Triomphe) has been rerouted to the BC Turf.

The F&MT market is now led by Cinderella’s Dream, which is remarkable given how weak her form looks and presumably owes more to her connections (Appleby/Buick) than to anything she's done on the track. Next in the betting is O’Brien’s Content, who would have a lovely profile... were it not for the fact that she finished unplaced in her last two races. That was probably due to the ground on both occasions, but is 9/2 second favouritism justified on the back of those performances? Next in the betting is War Like Goddess who looks much more solid, but AntePoster followers will have backed her at 18/1 as per our article two weeks ago, so have no need to go back in at 5/1.

One mare stands out as a bet in this race at the prices: Moira at 12/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook (related companies). However, that price should only be taken by win-only bettors, because Skybet – to their credit – are offering five places on this race for each-way betting (for our American readers, this is a European win-and-show combination bet in which the show part of the bet is fixed at a fifth of the win price). Skybet’s price of 10/1 is lower than Paddy Power's, but an each-way wager appeals hugely here as they will pay out if she finishes in the first five. That represents a 50% profit on the investment if she comes second, third, fourth, or fifth.

For further information on Moira, see our extensive analysis of this race as published this morning. However, the key point is simple: This is a very high-class mare from Canada who has always run well in the US. She was an outstanding third (beaten only 1.25 lengths) in last year’s Filly & Mare Turf, which was a much stronger edition of this race. Her price is inflated due to her defeat in her most recent race as favourite, but – as our analysis reveals – there was a very good reason for that. She is extremely appealing on Skybet’s terms in particular.

[A wager on Moira as per the above has no non-runner risk, as the bookmakers referenced are now offering “non-runner no bet” terms.]

Recommendation: Back Moira in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf, either 12/1 win only with Paddy Power/Betfair Sportbook or (more appealingly) 10/1 (each-way, five places) with Skybet.