Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf: Go to War with 18/1 Goddess

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Like most of the ante-post betting markets for the Breeders Cup races set to be run on the turf in Del Mar on 1-2 November, the Filly & Mare Turf market has been chaotic in its evolution over the last month. As always, European trainers and owners have had to weigh up various end-of-season options, with many horses being pencilled in the box marked “possible” until very late in the day. Some are seized on by the market and backed as they are perceived to be likely contenders only to then drift out again. Bluestocking, winner of the Arc de Triomphe, leapt to the head of the betting for a while, but rattling fast ground the other side of the world looked an unlikely seasonal finale for this top-class filly who prefers cut underfoot, and she has predictably been removed from consideration. So who does fly over?

Confusion over Ballydoyle trio

The market has played a “rotating guessing game” with the key fillies from the powerful Ballydoyle yard, with Content, Ylang Ylang and Opera Singer all attracting waves of support at one time or other. Content is set to run in Ascot’s Champion Fillies & Mares on 19 October, just two weeks after flopping in the mud at Longchamp Prix de l’Opera (where she finished second last). Another two-week turnaround for a race halfway across the world looks highly doubtful. Ylang Ylang was an even bitterer disappointment in the Opera (finished last, many lengths behind her toiling stablemate) and her status is unknown. Opera Singer has not been seen since finishing an underwhelming fifth in the Prix Vermeille – perhaps she goes to America, perhaps she doesn’t. But what does seem certain is that Aidan O’Brien won’t run all three, with a single entrant perhaps the most likely outcome.

The market is currently led by the Gosdens’ Friendly Soul, winner of the Prix de l’Opera. She’s a solid enough entrant and given that she is owned by the American George Strawbridge there is every likelihood of her going to Del Mar, where she could be joined by stablemate Emily Upjohn, a top-class filly in her own right (albeit with the alternative of the BC Turf against the boys over an extra furlong). The George Boughey-trained Soprano, who was second in the QEII Stakes at Keeneland over nine furlongs on 12 October, is an intended runner but faces a step up in trip as well as a sharp class rise at Del Mar – bar the winner, the QEII field was very weak.

Top-class US mare flies under betting radar

But for all the confusion and antepost merry-go-round surrounding the Europeans, there is a decent wager to be had in this race. Lurking well down in the betting is the top-drawer War Like Goddess, who is dismissed by SkyBet as an 18/1 shot. That looks plain wrong. This mare is getting on, of that there’s no doubt. She’s seven indeed. But trainer Bill Mott believes his girl is as good now as she’s ever been, and that view is borne out by her recent start at Aqueduct in the G1 Joe Hirsch. Here she finished a close second to Far Bridge, the leading US hope for the BC Turf, while thrashing the useful yardstick Silver Knott for the second race in succession. This looks like very good form. Her record over 11 or 12 furlongs over the last three years reads 113112131217122 (more on the “7” below), with almost all of these being G1 or G2 contests. As a come-from-behind horse, she has on various occasions failed to win due to a very slow pace (many of the “2s” above fall under that category). But the larger the field and the faster the pace, the better she has performed. And the Breeders Cup has traditionally ticked both these boxes.

Three cracking efforts in last three Breeders Cups

War Like Goddess’s performances in the last three Breeders Cups stand up to close scrutiny. In 2021, she was just three quarters of a length behind Japan’s Loves Only You in third, this being the last occasion the F&M Turf was held at Del Mar. In 2022, trainer Bill Mott decided to pitch her in against the boys in the Breeders Cup Turf, and she duly finished an excellent third in Keeneland behind Rebel’s Romance, who is heavy favourite to regain his crown in that race this year. Only last year was she mildly disappointing on the face of it, beaten just over four lengths into seventh behind Auguste Rodin at Santa Anita. But that run was much better that it looks on paper and bears rewatching on video – dropped into last from the worst of the draw (outside post) and still last with less than two furlongs to run, War Like Goddess found herself behind a wall of horses as she made her closing run and lost all momentum, forcing her jockey to wrench her out wide to find running space. How many lengths this cost her is difficult to assess, but there’s no doubt that she was value for much more than her finishing position suggests.

Of course, as a “deep closer” such problems in running could hinder War Like Goddess this year too, as she will likely face a big field at Del Mar. But that possibility is more than built into the Skybet price. Now facing her own gender, against whom she usually wins and has never failed to place over 11 furlongs or further, she is a standout bet to deliver another ultra-competitive effort. Expect this leading US hope to start in single figures.

Recommendation

Back War Like Goddess each-way @18/1 with Skybet. 16/1 with Betfred and BetVictor also very fair.

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