Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: A straightforward Thought Process

With such a huge weekend of flat racing in Europe just past, one might imagine the best betting opportunity of the day would emerge from analysis of those races. But after Sunday night the most glaring mispricing in The AntePoster’s view can be found in the Breeders Cup meet at Del Mar in four weeks’ time.

Specifically, a prime contender has emerged in the last 24 hours for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (quite the mouthful, let’s just call it the “JFT”), which is an appealing betting race for the antepost punter because, like the equivalent Breeders Cup race for the juvenile colts, it is priced up largely around the European horses at this stage, with the Americans given barely a look-in. That makes no sense at all.

US the dominant force in JFT

In the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (the colts’ equivalent) such a bias makes perfect sense, as the Europeans habitually dominate that race. But the JFT is very different. In the 16 runnings since it was introduced as part of Breeders Cup weekend, the US have won 13 editions. For a nation frequently dismissed as inferior to the Europeans on the grass, that’s quite eye-catching. US dominance weakens only slightly when analysis shifts to the runner’s-up position (US taking 9 from 16) and the third-placed finisher (11 from 16). But the general trend is clear – the Americans more than hold their own, and are statistically far more likely to produce the winner.

There is one obvious reason for that disparity in performance, namely that the Europeans do not send their best juvenile fillies to this race. That much is clear from analysis of the calibre of Europeans who have actually contested it. Some decent types, but almost never a top-notcher. This is understandable – sending two-year-old fillies to the other side of the world when autumn has set in and they may be “going in their coat” is quite an ask. Far more prudent to wrap them in cotton wool and put them away for the big races at Newmarket and Longchamp in the spring.

California looks to have a good ‘un this year

The major US trials have now been run, and there is a standout. Step forward California-based, Phil d’Amato-trained Thought Process, available at 16/1 (Bet365, also Skybet). Beaten on her debut on dirt, she has since run three times on turf. Each of these races was won with ease, with strong time figures for good measure. The first two races were achieved at Del Mar racetrack, which just so happens to be the host venue of this year’s Breeders Cup. That’s an advantage not to be underestimated in itself. And in her most recent run just yesterday (Surfer Girl Stakes, Santa Anita, 6 October), she displayed a new style of running (led all the way) and put daylight between herself and the opposition, looking as if she had even more in the tank if required.

But most pertinently, what she has achieved on the track looks much more impressive than the CVs of her US rivals. The Jessamine Stakes run on 4 October saw three fillies finish virtually in a dead heat, which is often a sign of weak form (moreover, winner May Day Ready was assigned a Beyer speed figure of 73, well below what Thought Process has recorded in the 80s). Meanwhile, on 6 October the Miss Grillo winner Scythian looked more impressive, but again recorded an inferior Beyer of 77. The speed figure for Thought Process’s run in the Surfer Girl, again on 6 October, was not available at the time of writing, but it was faster than the colt’s equivalent race (the Zuma Beach) on the same card. Last but not least, top US grass trainer Chad Brown – who has won the JFT a staggering six times – has failed to unearth a standout candidate this year.

Who will come from Europe?

As is typically the case this far out, the European challenge is hazy. The classy, unbeaten Lake Victoria (favourite for the 1,000 Guineas) from the Ballydoyle stable was shortened to 6/4 for the race as a BC trip was mooted as a possibility, but those vibes then weakened and she drifted out to 4/1. She then shortened again to 7/4 after she was not declared for the G1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket, but more on market inference than hard data: We still don’t know if she will travel, and sending over a top-notcher is not Aidan O’Brien’s M.O. The same trainer’s Heaven’s Gate comes next in the betting, but this one looks very exposed. Below her in the betting we find another O’Brien (January), who may or may not travel, followed by a clutch of names who for the most part look unlikely to make the trip. Meanwhile, although the G1 Marcel Boussac on Arc Sunday (6 October) was a “Win and You’re In” for the JFT, shock winner Vertical Blue is an unlikely starter and stablemate Zarigana (just nosed out on the line as heavy favourite) has been ruled out: “Graffard confirmed Zarigana was finished for the season and, while a discussion will be had over the Breeders' Cup for Vertical Blue, the daughter of Mehmas is also likely to be rested until the spring.”

The race favourite? Predicted price range 7/2 to 7/1

The case for betting on Thought Process is quite straightforward. In a race where the US is much stronger than Europe historically, she stands out as the top American runner. There is no possibility of her starting close to double figures. An accurate assessment of her price on the day cannot really be made until the European challenge becomes clear. But even with a strong challenge, The AntePoster does not see how she can start greater than 7/1. In the absence of Lake Victoria and the other big guns, she would have strong chance of being favourite, and 7/2 looks more like it. This is a standout case for taking on antepost exposure.

Recommendation: Back Thought Process for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf @ 16/1 (Bet365Bet365, also Skybet)

Published at 12:08 07/10/2024