Breeders Cup Mile: 14/1 very fair for reformed character

The Breeders Cup Mile was confirmed yesterday as the target of Lennox Stakes winner Lake Forest. Following that newsflow we consider him overpriced for that race at 14/1.

There are three nice types at the top of the market – Notable Speech (2/1), Erdenali (3/1) and Blue Bolt (4/1) – but bookmakers are giving nothing away on this trio and there is too much of a gap down to William Haggas’s talented gelding.

Due to the tight, turning nature of US oval circuit racing, the Breeders Cup Mile has often been a good fit for classy European horses who specialise over shorter distances: Expert Eye (2018) and Space Blues (2021) have both won the race in the last decade, while Kinross came from the clouds (and a terrible draw) to run Modern Games close in the 2022 edition.

None of those three had won a graded stakes race over a mile prior to their stellar BC Mile runs, and – just like Lake Forest – Expert Eye had never won a Grade 1. What they all had is class and a late turn of foot. Lake Forest is very much a horse in this mould, and has much more of a chance than his price would suggest.

He has also become much more consistent. He was always an extremely talented horse but would often throw in a dud. A gelding operation has ironed out these quirks. Lake Forest’s only “poor” run in five races since that operation came in the G1 Sussex Stakes (finished 6th), which is a pretty easy race to throw out: Not only was he returning to action after a break of just 24 hours, having won the G2 Lennox Stakes the previous day, he repeatedly failed to get a clear run. We have no doubt at all that he would have been placed even with the Lennox fresh in his legs – and that was a very hot contest.

And while the son of No Nay Never proved no match for Notable Speech last time out in the G1 City of York Stakes (where he was runner-up in a 14-horse field), he fared easily the best of those who were ridden off the pace. That was not the place to be. We suspect he can get much closer given the right set-up.

Lake Forest may well get a taster of Keeneland in the Coolmore Turf Mile in a couple of weeks. His appearance there is not certain, but we don’t mind this interim engagement as it will give him valuable experience of the exact course and distance over which the BC Mile is scheduled to be run.

In summary, we think this European 7-furlong type has a dangerous profile for the Breeders Cup Mile and more of a win chance than his odds would suggest – we would price him up in the 8/1 to 10/1 range. We also consider the place part of an each-way play to be value at odds of just shy of 3/1.

Recommendation: Back Lake Forest each-way at 14/1 to win the Breeders Cup Mile at Keeneland racecourse on Saturday 31 October. Price available with Paddy Power, Skybet, Betfred. The 12/1 generally available (Hills, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boyle) is OK, but no lower.