Breeders Cup Sprint: “Japanese” to take advantage of pace meltdown

Even the most seasoned observers of the US dirt sprint scene can’t recall a Breeders Cup Sprint packed with more speed horses than this one. Skelly, Straight No Chaser, Federal Judge, Bentornato, Don Frankie... these need-the-lead types know only one way to race, and that’s from the front. Yes, there’s a chance that one of them blitzes the field in a performance of a lifetime, but the overwhelming balance of probability is that they will lock horns, ensuring that this race turns into a pace meltdown.

When such a scenario occurs, it tends to drag down all those that contest the pace. What’s more, many habitual front runners throw in the towel anyway if their desire to be on the front end is thwarted. So this race should tee things up nicely for those who come from further back. The two seven-furlong specialists Mullikin and Raging Torrent are obvious candidates to last out a fast-run sprint over this shorter trip, but they too like to be forwardly placed and it’s far from clear if they can relax off a ferocious pace as opposed to being caught up in it. All in all, this race probably sets up best for the pure six-furlong closers.

Nakatomi is the best of these, for all that he possesses tactical speed too. Incidentally, this horse is Japanese in name only: he is US-trained (Wesley Ward) and US-bred from middle-distance horses on both sides of his pedigree, so looks an unlikely speed merchant on paper. But there’s no doubt he is one of the top dirt sprinters in the US when there is a strong pace. In last year’s fast-run BC Sprint he finished an excellent third (beaten just two lengths) to two-time sprint champion Elite Power, who would be favourite to win this had he not been retired. And this despite having been trapped behind the fading front runner and having to be switched. It’s reasonable to think Nakatomi would have been second that day (the actual runner-up Gunite, another excellent sprinter, has also been retired).

Misleading last race muddies up the form

Two races ago, Nakatomi had no problem taking down an in-form Skelly and registering a big speed figure. Had he come straight here on the back of that, he would be more like 5-1, but bettors can now get twice that price due to his performance last time at Keeneland in the G1 Ogden Phipps, where (as favourite) he was beaten more than five lengths by Federal Judge. But there’s a lot more to that disappointing run than meets the eye: It’s now well established that there was a pronounced speed bias at Keeneland that day, which effectively gave Nakatomi no chance, and for good measure he was carrying a weight penalty. Ladbrokes have seen fit to push Wesley Ward’s horse out to 10/1 on the back of that result, and with that bookmaker also offering four places he’s an excellent each-way bet to mow them all down late here.

A wild one for a place

Of the other closers, while Nakatomi sounds Japanese but isn’t (apologies for misleading title of article), Remake doesn’t but is. This one has no early speed at all, which might not matter too much in the anticipated scenario for this deep closer. However, Remake has never raced in the US and doesn’t appeal as much as the selection, who was superior to him in the Golden Shaheen in Meydan back in March despite almost everything going wrong in that race (broke badly, squeezed, hampered in straight, lost a shoe-plate). Instead, the “rag” of the field, Gun Pilot, is also worth a small each-way bet at 33/1 on four-place terms with Skybet. He too has been giving weight away recently, was handed an excellent draw in stall 2, and will be staying on when the oxygen drains from the legs of those in the heat of the early battle. A finish in the first four looks quite possible at a big price.

Recommendation: Back Nakatomi e/w at 10/1 with Ladbrokes (four-place terms). Back Gun Pilot e/w @ 33/1 with Skybet (four-place terms).