Champion Fillies & Mares: Outsiders to consider in soft-ground stamina test

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With a significant amount of rain having fallen and Ascot’s main round course already “heavy” in places, a switch to the inner course looks likely for the three longer Group 1 races on Champions Day. Full clarity over conditions will not be possible until that decision is made and the weather forecast for the end of the week becomes clearer, but the word “soft” in the going description looks assured. In short, the race for the fillies and mares over a distance of around 11.5 furlongs (if switched to inner course, a bit further if it isn’t) is likely to be quite testing.

As an additional factor, the current field of 19 is certain to shrink, although it is impossible to quantify by how much. What makes this an interesting betting heat is that the favourite in the market – Kalpana from the Andrew Balding yard – currently accounts for a huge chunk of the market at 7/4, but has never encountered soft ground. Her impressive last two races (and highest ratings) have come on good ground and an all-weather surface respectively. Kalpana might well handle a testing surface, but with an official rating that is still on a par with many of her rivals she doesn’t appeal at a short price.

Third-favourite Content is another with major ground concerns after her flop in the Prix d’Opera just 13 days prior to this race. She has run well with cut underfoot in the past (decent albeit distant third behind Bluestocking and Emily Upjohn in the G1 Pretty Polly), but her more recent outing on that surface raises alarm bells, and at the time of writing she was no more than a “possible” for the race per trainer Aidan O’Brien. A reversion to top-class form over a longer trip on similar ground to her Paris no-show has to be odds-against, and there is a good chance she will be kept for the more suitable surface she will encounter at the Breeders Cup in Del Mar.

With rivals like these and the likely withdrawal of several runners, The AntePoster would like to highlight three horses who have the clear potential to outrun their odds. It is possible that bettors would do well to wait for the 48-hour declarations before wading in on these horses, as four-place terms will be offered by most bookmakers at that point. The argument for playing now is that the prices currently on offer (and quoted below) may not last. Either way, it should be emphasized that these are small-stakes recommendations.

Village Voice

This Zarak filly has only run once on these shores, finishing 10th of 17 (beaten 13 lengths) in the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2023. That was on good to firm ground, however. Eye-catching pieces of form since include winning a G3 at Saint-Cloud in soft ground last October, being beaten less than a length by the high-class White Birch on heavy ground in April, and thrashing a large field in a listed race (also soft ground) back at the same venue a few weeks ago after a four-month seasonal break. Village Voice was awarded her highest-ever rating for that performance, and as a light-raced and relatively fresh contender she has an appealing outsider’s chance on ground that will surely suit. Available at 25/1 generally.

Doha

Eye-catchingly bred (by Sea The Stars out of two-time Arc winner Treve), this four-year-old filly has run eight times in total, with a steady but relentless trajectory of progression that has seen her record her most impressive performances in her last two runs (second to top-class Tamfana over a mile at Sandown, comfortable winner of a listed race in France last time out). She doesn’t have much to find on the ratings to be competitive, while on breeding the step up to 12 furlongs could well unlock further progression. All in all, 33/1 (generally available) looks very fair for a filly who might yet have more in the tank.

Sea Theme

The complete outsider of the field, this Sea The Stars filly thrashed the competition in a listed race at Clairefontaine in July. Forms lines through two of the beaten horses there put her very much on a par with Tiffany, who is second favourite here. Ran indifferently behind Content in the Yorkshire Oaks next time (beaten almost seven lengths), but only faded out of it late and good to firm ground may not have helped. Most recently (on Arc weekend) she was sixth in the G1 Prix Royallieu where she finished two lengths behind Grateful (entered here but unlikely to run) having not had the clearest of runs. She would likely need to run a career best to place here, but being an unexposed filly on soft ground and unraced at Ascot, it’s quite conceivable that Haggas's charge can outrun her odds on Saturday now she is back down in trip. 100/1 (Paddy Power) is offering generous risk-reward compensation for this wild idea.

Published 15/10/2024 15:50