Champion Fillies & Mares: So many absentees from this game

If there is one antepost market on Champions Day that screams "non-runners" at the front end (even more than the Champion Stakes itself), it is surely the Champion Fillies and Mares Stakes run over 12 furlongs.

For Kalpana it is now all systems go for the Arc 13 days' beforehand. Win, lose or draw, she will have a hard race, so it's doubtful that connections will wheel her out on a short rest, and doubtful that she will be at her best if they do point her at Ascot.

Sunly is being pointed at either The Arc or the Prix du Royallieu the day before. The same point applies as in the case of Kalpana: she's unlikely to turn up at Ascot. The Breeders Cup would be a better fit if they do run her again this year.

Thundering On's next race has not been set in stone, but the Arc looks like the favourite choice. The Opera is being considered too, and on Champions Day connections have not ruled out the Champion Stakes itself. Surely this race is low down the order of priorities.

Waardah will head next to the Prix du Royallieu on Arc weekend. That's a Group 1 over 14 furlongs, so the same doubts set out above for Kalpana apply here too.

And that's just the start of it. There are also doubts over a whole host of fillies and mares in the middle of this betting market .

With all this in mind, Sparan Nua appeals greatly. It was confirmed yesterday by connections that Ascot is the next race for her, and we are very happy to buy the excuse put forward by racing manager P J Colville for the middling performance in the Prix Vermeille:

It was just the ground...it got a big tight for us in France...she doesn't mind good ground but it just tightened up a little bit more over there."

We would go further than "tightened up a little bit more": the times on Arc trial weekend were quite spectacular and resulted in numerous records being broken. It's crystal clear that the ground at Longchamp on 6 September was the fast side of "good to firm".

Sparan Nua was no doubt flattered somewhat by her nigh-deadheating with Kalpana in the Yorkshire Oaks, but equally it cannot be doubted that she ran a massive race and handles dig in the ground very well.

In the absence of good to firm ground on Champions Day we think Jim Bolger's filly has a huge chance in this race. In a rare departure from our standard policy (all bets are typically considered to be £10 win or £5 each-way for our P&L purposes, i.e. 1 pt win or 0.5 pts e/w), this is a "2 point" recommendation. In other words, we will count this wager as £10 e/w for our P&L purposes

Recommendation: Back Sparan Nua each-way at 10/1 to win the Champion Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot racecourse on Saturday 17 October. Price available with Bet365. The 8/1 widely available elsewhere is also reasonable.