Ascot Champions Day antepost: Two each-way QEII plays at monster prices

So, the prices are out for Champions Day at Ascot in late October. Lots to digest.

But one thing stands out immediately to the AntePoster: the questionable credentials of the "big two" in the market for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes if the going turns soft. This kind of terrain setup is just not their bag.

Note also that there are plenty of other doubtful participants and/or fast ground specialists in the top ten in the betting. This market has largely been created based on the "here and now" of horse form in midsummer. But Champions Day is most unlikely to get midsummer conditions.

So we are recommending two each-way plays at big prices, with all the usual antepost risk attached:

Play 1: Carl Spackler at 66/1

We accept this one needs a bit of explaining.

Those of you who follow our youtube podcasts will know we have had our eye on this son of Lope de Vega, who was formerly trained by top US trainer Chad Brown, ever since he came to the UK earlier this spring. We wanted nothing to do with this horse at Ascot in the Queen Anne Stakes on fast ground. And we were reluctant to go near him in the Sussex Stakes on slightly less firm but still fast ground (although one of us did admittedly weaken on course on the day). Because all the evidence suggests this horse is not at his best when the racing surface is playing very fast.

True, this son of Lope de Vega is a Group 1 winner on firm ground in the US. But all his most eyecatching performances have come – in keeping with his sire/progeny trend – when there has been some ease underfoot.

Carl Spackler's final start in the US in 2024 saw him beaten 3 lengths in the Breeders Cup Mile on lightning fast ground at Del Mar by More Than Looks. A horse he had beaten a length a month earlier on slightly less firm ground at Keeneland in Kentucky. A horse he had battered by 3.5 lengths on rain-softened ground at Saratoga six weeks prior to that.

After a superb comeback (guess what: on rain-softened ground) in April at Keeneland, a deal was done to bring Carl Spackler to the UK for an experimental couple of races on the way to Australia. But this global adventure, under the care of Ciaron Maher (under whose auspices the UK was only even an interim stop), has now been put on ice. For now he is staying in the UK and has been placed with one the top training operations anywhere in the world, namely the Clarehaven Stables of John & Thady Gosden.

Carl Spackler has also been entered for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day at Ascot, where he will almost certainly encounter ground with some proper ease in it for the first time since arriving in the UK. The AntePoster believes this is a game changer.

For sure, the recent form looks poor. He was well beaten in both the Queen Anne at Ascot and the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. But essentially trainer-less in the UK, in a strange environment on courses far removed from what he is used to, Carl Spackler can be excused these lacklustre performances on ground we believe was faster than ideal. He's now with the best in the business, being prepared for a race at a course he now has experience of, and on ground that will be more likely to suit.

Of course there are risks attached to this wager. Is Carl Spackler a likely winner? No. Is he highly likely to be placed? No. What's more, he'll have to settle a bit better too after being much too keen since arriving on these shores, particularly at Goodwood. And while a bit of cut is desirable, it's unlikely he would want it hock deep.

But that's all in the price, as is the possibility that he will not thrive enough for his new training outfit to even make the starting gates. At 66/1, and now with the Gosdens, this multiple Group 1 miler appeals strongly.

Play 2: Quddwah at 40/1

This one needs less explaining.

The Crisfords' 5-year-old is quite lightly raced for his age, and has a fantastic win ratio (nine starts, six wins). He's been pushed out to a giant price by Flutter bookmakers Paddy Power and Skybet presumably because of his flop in the Queen Anne Stakes over course and distance at Royal Ascot back in June.

But he's not a fast ground horse, so that Queen Anne performance on rattling summer ground can be treated as a throw-out, as the chances of such conditions prevailing in the second half of October look wafer thin (even if this country does currently resemble an Arab Emirate).

No, we don't know why this horse was only fifth of 12 in the QEII last year on ground that should have suited. That's a bit of a mystery. But he has two wins at Ascot, and saw off quality opposition in the form of Docklands and Maljoom over the straight mile in May last year thanks to ease underfoot.

More importantly, Quddwah is absolutely back on track, impressing hugely last time out at Chantilly in France when taking apart a field with some decent rivals in the Prix Messidor. Quite simply, we see this one as a genuine threat to allcomers on Champions Day.

There are question marks, but 40/1 looks plain daft.

Recommendations:

Back Carl Spackler each-way at 66/1 with William Hill or 888 win the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on 18 October.

Back Quddwah each-way at 40/1 with Paddy Power or Skybet to win the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on 18 October.