Cheltenham Mares’ Chase: Talented mare available at 6/1 on attractive NRMB terms

When William Hill (together with affiliated company 888) became the first bookmaker to offer “Non Runner Money Back” (NRMB) terms on all races at the Cheltenham Festival in the first week of January, there were howls of derision in some quarters. Plenty of observers were disdainful of the revised books, with the vast majority of horses – particularly those at the top of the market – being slashed in price.

Leading the critics’ charge was the Racing Post’s Tom Segal (“Pricewise”), who in an article in The Weekender confessed to being “really depressed” at this move. To quote verbatim, I asked myself why would a major bookmaker launch this concession so early if it wasn’t largely for their own benefit, in both financial and publicity terms? All it means is that punters are persuaded to back horses at much shorter prices than they should be and get what in my view is poor value. No mincing his words then.

The AntePoster’s view is a bit more nuanced. By hugely reducing the risk taken by the punter, i.e. removing any penalty for the horse not turning up to the race in question, it was inevitable that the rewards on offer – in the form of the prices offered – would likewise be cut. For Segal, this “takes the fun out of the betting markets”. This comment, and indeed the tone of the article, feels very much like prejudice rather than a response to analysis of all 28 races prices up by William Hill.

For antepost market prowlers, the nature of the game hasn’t changed. They just have a new set of turf books to analyse (in addition to an array of standard antepost prices) as they seek to identify whether a bookmaker has left itself vulnerable. The question, therefore, is whether William Hill has made any errors in its “first-mover” pricing intiative, and whether – as time goes by – it takes its eye of the ball in the repricing of those markets in response to changing newsflow.

A race that stands out in this context is the Mares Chase on Cheltenham Gold Cup day. One of the most talented and exciting contenders, Allegorie de Vassy, was priced up by William Hill at 6-1 on an NRMB basis. This is now a very appealing price for a high-class mare who was a stunning winner last time out (Racing Post commentary: “Made all, set steady pace, left clear 4 out, went further clear before 2 out, canter”). The time of this race was eye-catchingly impressive. But most crucially of all, her price with William Hill at the time of writing is the same as the antepost market median, with the best price (offered by just a few bookmakers) being just a point shorter at 7/1.

Allegorie de Vassy’s appeal as a betting proposition is enhanced by the serious question marks over many of her key rivals. Taking them in betting order:

Dinoblue: Her performance last time out, behind Solness at Leopardstown in late December, was poor (beaten 18 lengths). Those were deep waters, but it was still the worst of her last dozen performances on the ratings. There are clear signs of regression here from a mare who last season was being considered for the top prizes against the boys.

Impervious: Won the Mares Chase in 2023, beating Allegorie de Vassy by 2.5 lengths. Has been 20 months off the track due to injury. Huge questions here: Will she come back before Cheltenham? Will she be the same horse when she comes back? Will she come back at all?

Bioluminescence: Impressed as a novice hurdler last season but pulled up behind Jade de Grugy on final start, her first Grade 1. Won her first novice chase well enough in late December, but against questionable opposition. Needs to find plenty of improvement to reach this level.

Only by Night: Has won both her two novice chases. Another who must improve to make her mark at this level, but no doubting there’s promise here.

Jade de Grugy:  Outstanding novice hurdler who was set to go chasing but met with a setback. Not even Paul Townend knows what her status is. Extremely unlikely to make the race.

Limerick Lace:  In recent races she has been a shadow of the mare that almost won this race last season. Tailed off the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November. Beaten 25 lengths by Allegorie de Vassy last time out.

Kargese:  Has been crashing in price for the Mares Hurdle for the last few days. She is clearly sticking over those obstacles this season, as she is entered this coming Saturday at Ascot (over hurdles) but also might wait for the Dublin Racing Festival (ditto). Microscopically small chance of making this race.

As a final but crucial observation as regards Allegorie de Vassy’s opposition, no less than four of the horses listed above are owned by JP McManus, raising the likelihood of at least one or even two bypassing this race for other targets. This is an unusually favourable constellation for the antepost punter, and not one that William Hill has taken into account.

To be clear, Allegorie de Vassy is not without her flaws. She could only manage 4th in the Mares Chase at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, and was very poor in both her final run of last season (Punchestown, beaten 26 lengths into 4th as 11/8 favourite) and then again on her reappearance at Clonmel in November (again 4th, beaten ten lengths as 1/3 favourite). But this is where the NRMB offer gives the punter a plump cushion: If she hits the skids in form terms and skips the festival, the stake is refunded. If she is injured or fails to enter the gates for any other reason, the stake is refunded. So a significant portion of the possible downside is removed.

In summary, Allegorie de Vassy ran one of the finest races of her life last time out and tops this field on recent form (and clock) achievements, and there are significant doubts surrounding many of the other key players. The AntePoster believes the 6/1 offered by William Hill does not reflect her chances of winning the Mares Chase, and with the Mullins/Townend/Ricci trio of connections there is a huge likelihood that she will start much shorter on the day. Given the risk cover offered by William Hill, this mare is therefore also an appealing “back and lay” play even for those who doubt her ability to deliver on the Cheltenham Hill.

Recommendation: Back Allegorie de Vassy @6/1 with William Hill to win the Mares Chase at Cheltenham on 14 March. Strictly win only (William Hill will not pay three places if there are less than eight runners).