City of York Stakes: Why is this 7-furlong star as big as 16/1?

When The AntePoster wrote an article last week about the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood, set to be run tomorrow (29 July), we took a stand against Kinross as short favourite in what was (at that point) a very large field at the price of 7/2. With Ralph Beckett's gelding likely to be running on faster ground than he really cares for, we fancied other horses at much greater prices in an open-looking race.

Several days later, he is more attractive in the 48-hour market at a bigger prices (4/1 second favourite), since the field is now smaller and all non-runner risk has been removed. But he's still not quite for us at that price. Despite that stance, The AntePoster doesn't object to Kinross wearing the mantle of favouritism. This reliable gelding is a 7-furlong specialist who is more likely than most to give his running in the Lennox, and is therefore a perfectly feasible winner of the race. It is therefore all the more surprising that the very same horse, who has typically headed the market in many of the top seven-furlong contests in Europe over the last few years (winning a number of them), is currently languishing at 16/1 for the next big seven-furlong contest of the summer season, the City of York Stakes at York racecourse on 23 August.

This does not make a great deal of sense. True, the newly acquired Group 1 status of the City of York is likely to attract a more competitive field than usual. There will be other horses waiting on the Knavesmire in addition to those contesting the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood this week. But as so often, this antepost market is immature and contains a number of horses who either won't be running or who are badly out of form. Our analysis of the eleven (!) horses listed at shorter prices than Kinross in the betting is as follows:

• Rosallion: Ultra-talented four-year-old, but hasn't raced over 7 furlongs since his juvenile days. There was talk about the City of York instead of the Sussex Stakes at one point, but having now taken up the latter engagement will he run in both? The interval of just over three weeks shouldn't rule it out, but The AntePoster has no idea. Fascinating contender but clear non-runner risks attached at 4/1.

  
  

• Lazzat: Jerome Reynier's pride and joy will almost certainly defend his G1 Maurice de Gheest crown over 6.5 furlongs at Deauville on August 10. With connections now campaigning the French gelding at decent intervals "with the long term in mind", it would be astonishing if he were to rock up here less than two weeks after the MdG repeat bid. Looks a surefire non-runner at 11/2.

  
  

• Never So Brave: Exciting up-and-comer who tore apart a big Royal Ascot handicap off topweight before following up by winning the G2 Summer Mile at the same venue. However, his 0.75-length beating of Point Lynas in that race wouldn't scream leading contender in this much more competitive contest at 8/1. That said, he is at least being firmly pointed to this race, unlike some. Not impossible.

  
  

• Notable Speech: What has happened to last season's 2000 Guineas/Sussex Stakes hero? His form figures this season are 4-4-5, which makes for sobering reading. The drop to six furlongs last time looked a little bit of a wild swing and didn't ultimately work. However, we do think Notable Speech's July Cup run was better than it looked. Perhaps a switch to this interim distance (having only run over a mile previously) will work for him. Not uninteresting at 8/1, particularly as this race is his clear target, something that cannot be said for many in the betting.

  
  

• Maranoa Charlie: Highly talented colt trained by Christopher Head. He's 5 for 8 lifetime but 3 for 4 over this specialist trip of seven furlongs, the only defeat coming in the G1 Prix Jean Prat last time out, when he was beaten only a head into second. Looks a rock solid player in this, and a perfectly fair 8/1. One of the feared ones. Will try to make all, which has been done twice in the last six years.

  
  

• Cosmic Year: Exciting Juddmonte colt who has been rather in the shadow of superstar Field of Gold for the same connections (finished second to that horse in the Irish 2000 Guineas). However, that ownership relationship means that Cosmic Year has essentially been campaigned not on his own merits but according to orders from high to suit his stablemate, which is an approach we don't like. It all went horribly wrong last time in the Jean Prat, as Cosmic travelled smoothly but was then suddenly struggling and finished well beaten. Was soft ground a possible reason for that defeat? Perhaps, but trainer Harry Charlton had previously sounded warning notes about this colt not wanting ground too fast, so it doesn't look an obvious excuse. Entered in the Thoroughbred Stakes on the Friday of Glorious Goodwood, after which (and including any post-race newsflow) we will know a lot more and 12/1 will either look good or rotten value, or something in between.

  
  

• Inisherin: Last season's Commonwealth Cup winner was bitterly disappointing at Royal Ascot this time around. You can't blame him for being withdrawn from this year's July Cup a fortnight ago due to shoe problems at the start, but he's clearly unreliable and connections are still toying with other options. No appeal at 12/1 until those doubts are resolved, and even then this one comes with clear risks attached.

  
  

• Shadow of Light: Last season's champion two-year-old. He ran a cracking 2000 Guineas before disappointing as short favourite in the Commonwealth Cup when dropped back to six furlongs, which looked a rather radical and unnecessary step (was the "winner" of the 2000 Guineas at the half-furlong pole). Then failed again to justify a short price when finishing fourth (albeit beaten only half a length) over this distance of 7 furlongs in the Jean Prat. He is rumoured to be heading back to Deauville for his next outing, and in any case it's doubtful that connections would go into this race double-handed with both him and Notable Speech. 14/1 with the Flutter mob, but as low as 7s elsewhere.

  
  

• Whistlejacket: The most overbet horse in training. Has the distinction of being beaten no less than five times at even money or shorter, and disappointed yet again as third favourite (when the pick of many a tipster) in the July Cup earlier this month, finishing 12th of 14. Aidan O'Brien's colt is at least 14/1 now, but with no indication that he is being pointed to this race yet he's one to run a mile from in the antepost market. Look at again with fresh eyes in the 48-hour market if there's rain (and even then retain scepticism as he'll likely take too much money).

  
  

• Jonquil: Connections have messed about with this colt (see also Cosmic Year, Shadow of Light, Notable Speech...), who looked set for a proper mile campaign after a nice reappearance win in the Greenham Stakes and a superb 2nd in the French 2000 Guineas behind Henri Matisse. But Jonquil then fell victim to the disease known as inthesameownershipasfieldofgold-itis (see also Jonquil above), ending up a dismal 13th in a Commonwealth Cup over a trip he should never have been dropped to. Mildly interesting at 14/1 (given that he's favourite for the Lennox) IF he can bounce back.

  
  

• Docklands: This year's Queen Anne hero looks to be an Ascot specialist, with all his top four Timeform figures coming at that Berkshire track. This engagement at York would be quite a surprising choice given that it's been 15 races since Docklands ran over a trip this short, so we're rather sceptical of his participation at 16/1, although his one race at Goodwood (in which he finished a well-beaten fifth of seven) can credibly be explained away by soft ground. Runs in the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday.

In summary, this is another of those antepost markets full of holes. Kinross, who has this as a key seasonal target, is without question one of the classiest 7-furlong horses in training. York form you ask? Ah well, that's the icing on the cake. He's unbeaten, having raced on the Knavesmire just twice and won on both occasions. Which race? This very same race, the 2022 and 2023 editions.

Our recommendation is at the Unibet price of 16/1, but as this firm is the most "axe-twitchy" turf accountant in the market when it comes to antepost books, just a couple of bets at this price will prompt them to cut it swiftly (well done the "first movers"). Kinross is 14/1 elsewhere, however, and that's still attractive.

Recommendation: Back Kinross each-way to win the City of York Stakes on 23 August at 16/1 with Unibet (or 14/1 with William Hill, 888, MGM Bet, Virginbet)