Dubai Sheema Classic - who is overpriced in this deep field?

This article is the second of our series dedicated to the undercard on Dubai World Cup night on 5 April. We would remind readers again that this field is not yet set in stone. While the horses discussed below are those comprising the “likely” final field for the Dubai Sheema Classic issued by the Dubai Racing Club, some of the horses below may end up being withdrawn, and it is still possible that others will be added. As with any antepost bet, therefore, any wagering at this stage comes with the risk of total loss even before the gates open. The numbers in brackets after each horse’s name are the best odds available at the time of writing.

Dubai Sheema Classic - 12 furlongs, Meydan racecourse, 5 April

This year's running of this race looks to be a cracker, with quality running right through this field. Horse-by-horse musings, in betting order:

Calandagan (5/2, Unibet): Improved seemingly out of nowhere in the summer of 2024 to put up a trio of successive top-class performances – thrashed lesser opposition in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, finished just a length behind City Troy in a deep G1 International at York in August, and was then narrowly edged out of a soft-ground G1 Champion Stakes at Ascot in October. That form cluster - particularly the York run - makes him the right favourite, but The AntePoster will sit on the sidelines regarding a wager on this gelding, as he is making his seasonal debut against some race-fit rivals here after his first ever long-haul flight. There are others who appeal more at the prices.

Rebels Romance (7/2, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair): What a horse, what a CV. And what geographical versatility after winning at 13 different racecourses, notching up G1 wins in five different countries, including two Breeders Cup Turf wins and this race last year. That’s a lot not to like. But we’re against him here. This field is the strongest he has encountered yet, many of his G1 wins have been against questionable opposition, and last year’s Sheema Classic was a strange race in a number of ways. There could be plenty of egg smeared on The AntePoster’s face, but we’ll take a stand against this old stalwart in this spot. Not least because....

Shin Emperor (11/2, Hills, 888): ...there’s a new kid on the block. Forget his poor Arc de Triomphe performance in a bog, and focus on the relentless improvement of this horse in the last half year or so: Eye-catching third to Economics in the Irish Champion Stakes, beaten just a length. Neck second to champion middle-distance Japanese horse Do Deuce in the Japan Cup. Easy winner of the G2 Neom Turf Cup as his prep race for this. Trained by Yohito Yashagi, who is peerless in his wins-to-runs ratio when travelling his horses far from Japanese shores. Has legitimate claims to be favourite here, but he isn’t. He’s the appealing one of the shorter prices.

Giavellotto (10/1 generally): Before his last race The AntePoster would have suggested 33/1 was a minimum guideline price for this likeable stayer in a 12-furlong race of this quality. But there was something extraordinary about that Hong Kong Vase performance last time out (in early December). The race was run at a relatively slow pace, but when the jockeys start pushing for the sprint finish at the final bend, one of them is motionless. Disaster then strikes, as Giavellotto is trapped behind a wall of horses and badly hampered as he tries to find a way through. He falls back, passed by almost the whole field. When he finally finds daylight, the best of his rivals have flown and the race looks over for him. Except it isn’t. He simply scythes through the field and wins going away. Where did that performance come from? Should it be viewed as an outlier or a performance earned against a weak field? Or has this long-distance type simply been wanting to drop back in trip all the while? We’ll find out on 5 April. Very interesting.

Danon Decile (12/1, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair): Was a wild price (46/1) when he won the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) over this distance last summer but as he won easily there didn’t appear to be any fluke about it. Poor on return from a break in the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St Leger, 15 furlongs) in October, but better in the Arima Kinen at Nakayama in December (12.5 furlongs, 3rd, beaten just under two lengths) and impressive when staying on relentlessly from an unpromising position to win the G2 American Jockey Club Cup over 11 furlongs last time (also at Nakayama). He’s still a bit green but equally he’s also not fully exposed, so a good showing cannot be ruled out.

Durezza (16/1 generally): Put together a string of wins in 2023 (including Japanese St Leger). Poor on the comeback trail in the spring of 2024 (over 10 and 16 furlongs), then seemingly outclassed in a bold attempt to take on Europe’s best over 10.5 furlongs in the International at York (5th behind City of Troy, beaten over 10 lengths). Returned to his best following a break to prove his top-class credentials when just missing out in the Japan Cup, dead-heating with Shin Emperor for second after aggressively taking up the running and staying on resolutely. Can he repeat that kind of performance in his second foray abroad (mindful that the first didn’t go so well)? If so, he’s overpriced here at three times the price of a horse he dead-heated with last time.

Cervinia (14/1 generally): Best of the sophomore fillies in Japan last year, taking two of the “Triple Tiara” races and finishing fourth in the Japan Cup in late November to round off her year. On the negative side that gives her quite a bit to find with the likes of Shin Emperor and Durezza, and to compound matters she was a dismal 9th of 15 (beaten more than five lengths) in her next foray into mixed-gender company, the Kyoto Kinen in February (only start in 2025). Would have to drift considerably in the betting to appeal in this race, which will be her third attempt to compete with the boys.

Calif (25/1 generally): This seasoned campaigner has consistently run to a high level over the last few seasons for three different trainers (Schiergen and Lerner in Europe, Naas in Dubai), running to form with admirable consistency and placing in many big races, even winning a (soft) Group 1 in Germany last summer. However, his peak level of form - matched last time when less than two lengths behind Shin Emperor in the 10-furlong Neom Turf Cup in Riyadh – is some way shy of what the majority of this field have achieved, which makes it difficult to see this six-year-old competing at the business end of such a deep race. One possible angle is the step up to 12 furlongs for the first time, as he tends to be staying on over shorter trips. But there’s limited encouragement for that based on his breeding.

Al Riffa (NON-RUNNER)

Deira Mile (50/1 generally): Has just turned four following a three-year-old season in the UK that saw him finish fourth in both last year’s Derby in June (7.5 lengths behind City of Troy) and the St Leger in September (1.75 lengths by Jan Brueghel). Those are his best pieces of form in nine starts, and they give him little chance of hitting the board in this company. A feeble sixth in the Red Sea Handicap on Saudi Cup day in late February (beaten more than ten lengths) diminishes enthusiasm even more, and it’s difficult not to conclude that his presence here is driven by his Middle Eastern owner rather than trainer Owen Burrows.

Sovereign Spirit (66/1 generally): Presumably invited to this race on the basis of his victory in The Kings Cup in Bahrain earlier this month. Looks to be in way over his head in this kind of company, and his prior showing in the Neom Turf Cup in Riyadh a month ago (7th of 10, 4.5 lengths behind Shin Emperor) gives an idea of how much improvement he will have to find to be competitive. After 26 starts, such a quantum leap forward looks grossly improbable.

Summary: There’s very little between the top six or seven in the market on ratings, so this doesn’t look like a race to "go large" on. Despite seven Group 1 winners in the field, the favourite is likely to be one that hasn't: the gelding Calandagan, who will be a serious force if he is ready to fire his best shot in his first race in six months. However, given our doubts in that regard our favourite is another that hasn't scored at the top level - Shin Emperor. Of the mid-market prices Durezza and Giavellotto look most interesting as each-way plays.