Dubai Turf - is there value in taking on Romantic Warrior?

This article is the first of a series of features dedicated to the undercard on Dubai World Cup night. Please remember that the final fields are not yet set in stone. While the horses discussed below are those comprising the “likely” final field for the Dubai Turf issued by the Dubai Racing Club, some of the horses below may end up being withdrawn, and it is possible that others will be added. As with any antepost bet, therefore, any wagering at this stage comes with the risk of total loss even before the gates open. The numbers in brackets after each horse’s name are the best odds available at the time of writing.

Dubai Turf - 9 furlongs, Meydan racecourse, 5 April

The world’s best turf horse casts a long shadow over this field. So what to do with Romantic Warrior at a best-priced 8/13? On the one hand, betting at this sort of price long in advance of a race – and taking the corresponding antepost risk – is a quick way to the poorhouse. On the other, there is every chance that his price will shorten as race day approaches.

Romantic Warrior’s record bears the closest scrutiny. Although he was beaten for the first time in two-and-half years last time out, that was his first race on dirt and many would argue he was the best horse in that thrilling Saudi Cup, having made a premature, five-wide move on the final turn. What’s more, even that defeat is on a par with any of his numerous wins from a form ratings perspective, so is hardly indicative of a downturn in form. Analysis of his turf record meanwhile makes for sombre reading for any would-be rival. Eight Group 1 wins on the trot and utterly dominant in his native Hong Kong, but also able to assert his superiority against the best of Japan and Australia. Eight, nine, ten furlongs…all fine.

But The AntePoster sees a potential chink in the Warrior’s armour. As first flagged with reference to Forever Young in our analysis of the Dubai World Cup field, there is a chance those Saudi Cup heroics may have left a mark. That race in Riyadh on 22 February was a titanic battle in which both horses looked like they laid everything they had out there on the track. There must be a chance of regression in their next respective races on 5 April.

With this in mind, the most appealing way to play this race is the each-way angle with the fixed place odds that such bets entail, given that the favourite takes so much out of the market.

Who are the most appealing candidates? From our analysis, three obvious candidates stand out and are listed below in relative order of appeal:

Soul Rush (10/1): No spring chicken (seven-year-old) but peaked last year as a six-year-old so dangerous to write him off on age grounds. Only half a length behind Romantic Warrior in the Yasuda Kinen in June 2004 when less favourably drawn, and then an imperious winner of the Mile Championship at Kyoto last November (career-best form). Easy to forgive defeat in prep run for this race in the Nakayama Kinen in February after a break (was also giving weight away). Untested at Meydan but otherwise a very live player.

Facteur Cheval (14/1): Winner of this last year, just ahead of Namur, whose form ties in closely with Romantic Warrior and Soul Rush. So why such a big price for a successful defence of his title? Well, along with the presence in the field of Romantic Warrior, the generous price probably reflects his two disappointing flirtations with dirt in his last two races. Indeed, most recently he was beaten a sobering 15 lengths by Forever Young in the Saudi Cup. But forgive those runs on an essentially alien surface (for all that connection had high hopes for him on it) and he looks a very generous price given last year’s victory in this contest.

Liberty Island (8/1): This one’s résumé is strewn with top-class form. She dominated the fillies’ division in Japan in 2023 (clean sweep of the “Triple Tiara” races), finished second to superstar Equinox in that year’s Japan Cup, and then filled the same position behind Romantic Warrior in the Hong Kong Cup just four months ago. The AntePoster has two niggling doubts about this mare though. On the distance front, the drop to nine furlongs looks a big question mark – she was a staying-on third in the Sheema Classic over three furlongs further last year – while analysis of her CV reveals a clear pattern of improvement with a run under her belt after a break. Here she’s running fresh of a 120-day layoff.

Of the remainder…Nations Pride (10/1) was at his best back in 2023 and nothing he has done recently suggests he can win a race like this now. His win last time out at this track (after a spell in the doldrums) was nothing special at all in the context of this race. Ghostwriter (16/1) has plenty of decent form in Britain from last year behind the likes of City of Troy and Economics so a good showing would not surprise, but his record at G1 level now reads 4335, so enthusiasm is tempered. Possible wild card angle. Brede Weg (16/1) has almost three lengths to find with Soul Rush on their respected runnings in the Kyoto Mile Championship back in November (also had a better trip in that race). He’s lightly raced and could conceivably improve again, but really has to. Maljoom (40/1) is an exceptionally talented miler on his day, with two standout pieces of form that would give him a serious chance of placing here (a brutally unlucky half-length fourth in the G1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in June 2022, and a 1.5 length second to Notable Speech in the G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last summer). He hasn’t looked close to replicating that level of form in three races since the Goodwood run but is still the most appealing of the extreme prices in this race. Goemon (50/1) has been on a serious winning streak in Bahrain recently and ran the race of his life to finish third in the 1351 Turf Sprint on Saudi Cup day at the end of January. But none of that will be anything like good enough here. Meisho Tabaru (66/1) has no form that would make him competitive at this level, and for good measure was beaten 13 lengths in his prep run for this race.

Summary: Soul Rush and Facteur Cheval look appealing each-way plays, while Maljoom is a possible wild swing at a huge price. But we would not advocate wagering yet. Romantic Warrior is likely to remain heavily odds-on, and on the eve of the race it is just possible that bookmakers are likely to offer four places for each-way betting.