Ebor Meeting: Take the cake and the icing at 10/1 in Great Voltigeur

Carmers, winner of the Queen's Vase, has yet to taste defeat in three outings. He is classy, improving with each run, and is one of the more fancied horses to upset the hugely exciting Scandinavia in next month's St Leger.

He was kept in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at Doncaster next week at the 5-day stage today, and trainer Paddy Twomey has today confirmed that the transport to York has been booked (this looked doubtful at one point and caused much growth of grey hair).

There is obviously a strong chance he will face defeat for the first time, as the dual Derby winner Lambourn is likely to run and heads the market accordingly (4/6).

Good luck to those who take that price, however, as Ballydoyle have yet to commit the Epsom and Irish Derby winner to the race: "could well go there" is the phrase for now. What's more, Lambourn looked anything but impressive in Ireland last time, and fast ground will ask a completely new question of him. We think he has an air of vulnerability.

The appeal of this "cake", however, is not the Carmers win price of 10/1, for all that this is at least somewhat attractive. It's all about the icing: the odds-against place price (2/1) that this translates to for an each-way bet. Three places are still available with most bookmakers, and that looks hugely attractive in a race that looks very likely to shrink in size. Notable aspects of this market are as follows:

• The two other "big beasts" of this betting market, Merchant and Amiloc, have been withdrawn at today's declaration stage.

  
  

• Ballydoyle have a massive six of the 11 horses remaining in the race and it looks a nigh certainty that some of these will be withdrawn. Three of those (Mount Kilimanjaro, Stay True, Aftermath) have in any case not run for 100 days or more and are likely to need the run, in keeping with the stable's modus operandi.

  
  

• Dante winner Pride of Arras ran extremely badly in both the Epsom Derby and the Irish equivalent at the Curragh. He has since been gelded due to "issues", and while this may bring about improvement he has significant questions to answer at this third attempt at the 12-furlong trip.

  
  

• Bay City Roller ran dreadfully last time at York on ground that was much faster than advertised "good, good to soft in places"(now classified "good to firm" by Timeform). His participation on the likely fast ground next week is very much in doubt (as is the likely level of performance if he does turn up), since the trainer has made it clear that this son of New Bay is best with some give in the ground.

  
  

• Furthur runs in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury on Saturday, and his Voltigeur entry is presumably just as insurance in case he has to be withdrawn from the earlier race for some minor reason.

  
  

• William Haggas's Arabian Force is an interesting last-minute supplementee and the one other credible rival we fear.

In summary, we think Carmers has a chance of upsetting Lambourn for the win and a very strong chance of placing. An each-way investment therefore looks appealing in a market that looks certain to shrink in size.

Recommendation: Back Carmers each-way at 10/1 with Bet365 to win the Great Voltigeur Stakes at Doncaster on Wednesday 20 August.