Goodwood's Sussex Stakes: Don't circle around this crack miler at 9/1

It's rare for The AntePoster to put up a horse for a race when the selection's chance of winning the race in question does not obviously stand out at the current market price. But just occasionally the each-way angle is too compelling to ignore. And the Sussex Stakes on Day 2 of Glorious Goodwood (Wednesday 30 July) is precisely such a situation.

The reason the selection – along with any other potential competitor – has very little chance of winning this race is the nigh-certain presence of this season's superstar three-year-old: Field of Gold. This Juddmonte-bred, Gosden-trained colt was notoriously unlucky not to win the 2000 Guineas back in May, giving the impression of being clearly the best horse in the race but denied the win by his poor race positioning given the pace scenario. He proved that notion correct when thumping allcomers in the Irish 2000 Guineas later that month, winning by open lengths, before then meting out the same treatment to 2000 Guineas winner Henry Matisse in the St. James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, with his Newmarket conqueror Ruling Court (and every other runner) finishing the race even further in the rear-view mirror.

Field of Gold is currently a best-priced 4/7 to win the Sussex Stakes in two weeks' time, and probably deserves to be every bit of that price. He may start even shorter come race day.

What piques the The AntePoster's interest in situations like these is the long prices that bookmakers have to chalk up for the other high-quality horses in the race. With the four-year-old Rosallion being as short as 4/1 – despite two defeats in two outings this season – this inevitably means big prices on any other would-be contenders.

Particularly appealing in the context is the price of the afore-mentioned Henri Matisse, who is available at 9/1. In our eyes this represents terrific each-way value, as we see virtually no scenario in which this son of Wootton Bassett will not finish in the first three, bar the usual injury and other force majeure caveats. If he does achieve a podium place, the wagerer will reap a 40% profit on the investment even with the win portion written off.

Three-point rationale:

• Handsome winner of the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf in November last year, Henri Matisse won well on his seasonal debut in April from a highly unpromising position. According to Timeform, he then improved a further 7lbs to run out a cosy winner of the French 2000 Guineas at Longchamp the following month. And despite being well beaten by Field of Gold (to the tune of 3.5 lengths) in the St James's Palace Stakes, that runner-up result represented a further 7lb improvement on his French Guineas win. The figure he posted (Timeform: 123) is already at an elite level – just nothing near what Field of Gold is capable of. But don't be fooled by that deficit to a superstar: this lad is a crack miler.

  
  

• The presence of Field of Gold makes it an overwhelming probability that this race will be contested by fewer than eight runners, quite aside from the fact that the Sussex Stakes has been struggling to attract a decent-sized field for some years now. By way of comparison, the 2022, 2023, and 2024 editions had 7, 5 and 5 runners respectively. The current three-place terms that apply in this antepost market are therefore likely to be highly favourable, and the constellation of an odds-on favourite simply enhances the appeal.

  
  

• Not only do we think it extremely likely that Henri Matisse will finish in the top three, we would actually make him favourite in a "match bet" with the second betting market choice, Rosallion. The gloss has long since come off the latter's form lines from last year, and for all the glowing stable vibes and upbeat newsflow, the fact of the matter is that this horse has been beaten in both his starts last year. Given the weight-for-age penalty he has to give Aidan O'Brien's colt, we strongly prefer the latter to claim runner-up spot in Goodwood's mile showpiece.

And while we cede that a win is unlikely in the face of such a stellar rival, Field of Gold still has to turn up both literally and figuratively. His victory on the downs is not a done deal yet.

Recommendation: Back Henri Matisse each-way at 9/1 with BetVictor (8/1 generally available also appeals) to win the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on 30 July.