Hong Kong Cup: Odds-on favourite vulnerable to Japanese raider

The market is in no doubt. The Hong Kong Cup is all about one horse, Romantic Warrior. GBP 15 million banked in a magnificent body of work comprising 21 races and 16 wins, of which no less than eight have been recorded at Group 1 level. Winner of the Hong Kong Cup for the last two years. And a facile winner – by over four lengths – of his most recent run in the Jockey Club Cup, which was a G2 prep for this year’s edition. These would appear to be formidable credentials. Small wonder he is 4/7 to win the race on 8 December for a third time.

How strong is this warrior?

But let’s play devil’s advocate and look at this champion’s CV in a different way. Every single one of Romantic Warrior’s last five G1 wins has been by a minimal margin – to be precise, length, neck, neck, short head, short head. And in none of those victories did he face anything like the best ten-furlong horses on the planet, company he is unanimously considered to belong in.

For sure, one could argue that these narrowly achieved victories do him credit. It’s plain enough that Romantic Warrior is a “warrior” in more than name – when put into battle by his jockey, he goes to war and wins, and sometimes by no more than he needs to. But another way of looking at this horse – with a more critical eye – is to posit the theory that he has almost never faced top-level international competition over this 10-furlong trip, and is therefore not actually that good. In last year’s victory in the Hong Kong Cup, he scraped home from Ballydoyle inmate Luxembourg. The AntePoster is deeply sceptical about the quality of that achievement. The previous year was more impressive, at least in the sense that the margin of victory was more than four lengths, but the form of the horses that filled the next four places behind him makes for shocking analysis. He thrashed them, but he should have done.

All about price – and 4/7 creates value elsewhere

None of this means Romantic Warrior cannot carry off this year’s Hong Kong Cup. The AntePoster accepts that he is the most likely winner, and his prep for this year’s running after a break was undeniably impressive, for all that it was (again) against greatly inferior opposition. But at odds of 4/7, the implied probability of his winning this year’s Cup at Sha Tin is just under 64% – expressed another way, he accounts for almost two thirds of the entire book. That's what The AntePoster has a problem with. It’s just too short.

If he is too short, then who is too long?  And it’s with that question that things get interesting. Most of the remaining entrants look sub-standard and a long way short of the form level required to win this race. No obvious value there. But there are two exceptions, both Japanese. And one of these looks a massive price to take down the reigning champ.

Classy Japanese filly comes with doubts

At first glance, the obvious threat to Romantic Warrior would appear to come from Japan. For second in the betting is the classy filly Liberty Island. Having finished second to Equinox in last year’s Japan Cup, we know she has the class for a race like this, and then some. But there are two big doubts hanging over this filly. The first is the distance of the Hong Kong Cup – she would appear to be at her best over the Japan Cup trip, namely 12 furlongs, rather than this shorter 10-furlong distance. And the second doubt relates to her current form: She could finish only 13th of 15 behind Do Deuce in the Autumn Tenno Sho on her return to the racetrack in October. Perhaps Liberty Island needed that run for fitness purposes after a long break, but it was still mighty disappointing. So she doesn’t appeal as the second favourite at 11/2.

Bigger-priced Japanese raider the form eye-catcher

But that Autumn Tenno Sho – run over the same distance as the Hong Kong Cup – still holds the key to the betting for this race, so the biggest threat to Romantic Warrior really does come from Japan. Because in second place, just a length behind winner Do Deuce, was the four-year-old Tastiera, beaten just over a length, with Justin Palace two places further back. With Do Deuce having just won the Japan Cup on 24 November (Justin Palace 5th), that Tenno Sho now stands out as a hot form line to follow. Be in no doubt, the Japan Cup is invariably a race far deeper than the Hong Kong Cup, and Do Deuce is clearly one of the top middle-distance turf horses on the planet. So at a price of 14/1 to win at Sha Tin on 8 December, Tastiera is grossly overpriced.

Tastiera is admittedly not bombproof. He was 53/1 for October’s Tenno Sho after two poor runs back in the spring, so clearly outperformed relative to market expectations. But that last run behind Do Deuce didn’t come out of nowhere.  He has back class as the winner of last year’s Japanese Derby (Tokyo Yushun), not to mention plenty of other G1 form in Japan. And more to the point, he is now clearly back in top form. If forced to play bookmaker, The AntePoster wouldn’t dangle a price as low as 7/2 on this horse for the Sha Tin showpiece. With four times that price available at the time of writing, he's simply a must play. Each-way appeals, as this looks a race of little depth with just one rock-solid rival in the form of the favourite. Hence the chance of Tastiera placing looks to be far greater than the 2.8/1 probability implied by the win price.

Recommendation: Back Tastiera each-way to win the Hong Kong Cup on 8 December at 14/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral and William Hill.