Hong Kong Mile: Rising French star should be favourite - but isn't

The key entry stage for the four Hong Kong International Races (“HKIR”) to be staged at Sha Tin on 8 December came and went earlier this week, reducing bookmaker lists that contained dozens of horses in each race to fields of just fourteen, a manageable number for antepost analysis.

One of these races is the Hong Kong Mile. This contest is set to be won by a new face this year with the retirement of Golden Sixty, whose name was etched on the trophy following three of the last four runnings. For good measure, this local superstar was beaten just a neck into second on the other occasion (the winner of that edition, California Spangle, will contest the Hong Kong Sprint this year). So there are big boots to fill. Who will do the filling?

Bookmakers struggle to identify favourite…but why?

For the bookmaking community this appears to be a thorny question, as the market for this race looks very blurry. William Hill, for example, are struggling so badly to find a favourite that they are currently going 9/2, 5/1, 5/1, 5/1 for the first four in the betting. Not hugely imaginative, but the obvious way to approach things in the absence of a clear favourite in a balanced-looking race. But is there really no standout choice here?

The AntePoster thinks there is. Step forward three-year-old Lazzat, whose career did not start until January of this year at Cagnes-sur-Mer, down on the French Riviera. By this time he was already a gelding, presumably on the grounds of his untractable behaviour. But with the stallion seeds removed, the racing seeds were sown for an unbroken upward trajectory. His first six races unfolded as follows: maiden race (1st), conditions race (1st), listed race (1st), two Group 3 races (1st, 1st), and finally the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest, the midsummer sprint showpiece (6½ furlongs) at Deauville. He won that too, and by a dominant three lengths. To give some idea of the quality of that form, he passed the post in this Normandy seaside resort more or less four lengths in front of Beauvatier and Flora of Bermuda, who would both be beaten just a length or less in Ascot’s end-of-season Champion Sprint. Make no mistake, this guy’s a star.

Defeat in the Golden Eagle

Lazzat’s race record is now "in tatters" after a second place on his last outing, which took his lifetime figures to 1111112. This runner-up finish came on 2 November in one of the world’s richest races, the Golden Eagle in Australia. In the view of The AntePoster, this was the second-best race of Lazzat’s career at the very least, because almost everything that could go wrong did, and he was still beaten just half a length. Having missed the break, he expended a huge amount of energy to race past 15 or so horses to take the lead, was taken on by a complete outsider fully three furlongs from home, and was then locked in a protracted battle with that horse around the far bend and for the whole length of the straight. Yet somehow he held off the pack until being passed – just before the line – by a horse (Lake Forest) who had been given a much more efficient waiting ride. What’s more, this rival gave Lazzat a proper bump as he came alongside, knocking the latter off his stride. In short, this was actually a most impressive performance, and one that showed the French colt has added tenacity to his repertoire of racing attributes.

Five credible but hardly scary rivals

The Hong Kong Mile does not look a very deep race. Indeed, much of the field smacks of “filler” with few credible win threats. But as there are a cluster of decent types who do have genuine claims, let’s look at these horses briefly:

·         Soul Rush (9/2): Older Japanese miler who comes here the top of his game, having won the Kyoto Mile Championship last time out (top European miler Charyn only fifth, though that one completely blew the start). Only good enough for fourth last year.

·         Voyage Bubble and Galaxy Patch (5/1 and 10/1 respectively): Solid players for the home team and closely linked on two recent pieces of form. The former was second to Golden Sixty last year and won the local prep for this, reversing previous form with Galaxy Patch. Possible winners but hardly world-beaters.

·         Jantar Mantar (6/1): Unexposed Japanese colt who may have more upside. Analysis of collateral form (involving a horse by the name of Ascoli Piceno) shows that Lazzat should have his measure. He has never travelled abroad.

·         Antino (8/1): NZ-bred who represents top Australian mile form. However, The AntePoster is sceptical about the quality of milers Down Under at the moment, and that extends to this fellow. Moreover, a form line through a horse called Stefi Magnetica suggests he will struggle to beat Lazzat. Like Jantar Mantar, has never travelled abroad.

In short, these rivals are by no means impossible winners of the Hong Kong Mile – and Soul Rush and Voyage Bubble are particularly feared – but all bar one of these rivals are fully exposed horses, whereas Lazzat is not, particularly over a mile. Indeed, on breeding he should actually be better at this distance, as the sire was at his best over a mile and the grandsire on the dam side is Australia, a top-notcher over much further.  Another appealing angle is Lazzat’s versatility where underfoot conditions are concerned: The ground was riding relatively fast on his last two runs, yet as a dual winner on heavy turf a monsoon on the day would pose no problem.

Thanks to his recent defeat and the rather bizarre recency bias that has followed in its wake, the traders at Bet365 have seen fit to price Lazzat up at 7/1 to take this prize home to Europe. By contrast, The AntePoster believes he should be clear favourite, making that price a standout bet. Recommended win-only, as each-way terms with just three places offered in a fourteen-horse field make no appeal for a horse quoted at single figures.

Recommendation: Back Lazzat to win the Hong Kong Mile on 8 December at 7/1 with B365. Win only.