Hong Kong Sprint: Back the right rising star

Every so often, a thoroughbred announces itself on the racing scene with a performance so spectacular that not even the most jaded of observers can be in any doubt that a new star is born. Such a scenario unfolded in little over a minute on 17 November 2024, when the four-year-old Ka Ying Rising took the G2 “BOCHK Private Banking Jockey Club Sprint” at Sha Tin racecourse without having to exert any great effort.

Jaw-dropping exhibition of speed

For any fans of flat racing, even those who don’t follow the Hong Kong racing scene, this is a must-watch contest. Jockey Zac Purton takes his charge straight to the lead to avoid traffic issues, then reins him back into third place. At the 300-metre marker (1.5 furlongs from home, in Anglo-speak), he then urges his mount to accelerate off what is already a fast pace (middle two furlongs of the race run in 21.97 seconds). The response is simply astonishing: Ka Ying Rising shoots away from the field and opens up a five-length lead in a matter of seconds, before being eased right down for the last half furlong the race. Indeed, having switched off his mount, Purton can take the time to blow kisses to the in-field camera as he saunters across the finish line.

The stunning visual impression aside, there is also the small matter of the time. Clocking 1.07.43, Ka Ying Rising broke Sacred Kingdom’s long-standing track record for six furlongs at Sha Tin, a racetrack that has seen many a blistering speedster. And trainer David Hayes’s gelding achieved this despite being heavily eased down. It's absolutely clear that there was lots more left in this locker.

So he’s a bet for the G1 Hong Kong Sprint on 8 December, right? Well, no. Or rather, “no” unless a heavily odds-on antepost bet for a horse in a sprint is your thing. The AntePoster would never go near such a wager. At the very least, punters who want to latch on to this rising star should wait for non-runner-no-bet (NRNB) terms to be offered.

Implied win probability makes for eye-catching place terms

But what does appeal here is an each-way bet, given that the favourite now accounts for almost three-quarters of the book in this antepost market (at a best price of 4/11, the implied probability of Ka Ying Rising winning the race is 73.3%). When a book is so skewed towards one particular horse, the fixed-odds conversion process to get the traditional place terms (a fifth of the odds, three places) pushes the prices of the other horses in the race into quite extreme territory. This is particularly interesting for the place part of the bet, as bookmakers cannot break up the fixed ratio of the two different wagers.

That said, even this would ordinarily not be a market to get involved with until the NRNB stage. Apart from anything else, four places are likely to be offered by at least one or two bookmakers from 7 December onwards. At that point any number of horses might appeal on an each-way basis:

·         Last year’s winner California Spangle can be backed at 16-1 (although his

performance behind Ka Ying Rising on 17 November was deeply disappointing)

·         The second and third in the Jockey Club Sprint (Howdeepisyourlove and Helios

Express) have credible place chances once again at 16/1

·         A couple of interesting sprinters are coming over from Japan (Lugal, Satono Reve)

·         Australia has an interesting up-and-comer in the form of Recommendation, who can

be backed at 50/1

·         Classy G1-winning types such as Nobals and Victor The Winner can be backed at 40/1 and 80/1 respectively.

So options abound at big prices once that extra place is offered, but getting involved with any of these now doesn’t appeal.

Back this “star” at seventy times the price

There is one exception, however. The Ralph Beckett-trained Starlust stands out as a bet as he is quoted at a price that surely can’t last. This four-year-old only made his debut in June 2023, and has since run 18 times, winning on six occasions. What appeals here is this horse’s continued pattern of progression, interrupted only by below-par performances on undulating tracks (Ascot, Goodwood, Newmarket). But there’s more. The best two runs of his life have been on rattling fast ground, which at the time of writing are what he will get in Hong Kong. His best runs as both a three-year-old and a four-year-old have been round a bend (left-handed, but has also won the only race he has contested around a right-hand bend). And his last three runs confirm that he is in the form of his life: He finished third in the G1 Nunthorpe at York (beaten all of a length), was competing for honours in the G1 Abbaye at Longchamp - despite the unsuitable ground - when knocked into the rail (narrowly avoiding what could have been a hideous accident for mount and jockey), and scythed through the field to win the G1 Breeders Cup Sprint at Del Mar in the first week of November. In short, this is a horse at the top of his game.  And there’s a big chance that his game will be good enough for him to place here.

The clear negative, or at least the obvious “known unknown”, is whether Starlust can transfer his outstanding five-furlong form to six furlongs. After all, it cannot be refuted that his two weakest races this season have been over the longer trip. However, they have also both been over the undulations of Ascot, which wouldn’t appear to be his track at all. The flat track and bends at Sha Tin look to be much more up his alley, and Ralph Beckett is optimistic he is bringing his star sprinter to an ideal set of parameters, with the trip not a concern. As Starlust is typically at his strongest at the finish that seems a reasonable stance, for all that a fast-finishing five-furlong horse will not necessarily be better over further.

But the appeal of Starlust just over a week out from the race is ultimately down to Bet365, who have seen fit to plough a lone furrow and price up this top turf sprinter at 25/1. At seventy times the price of Ka Ying Rising, that catches the eye on its own, but it looks plain bewildering when the place part is considered, as that part of the bet gives the punter a 5/1 betting slip. That’s hardly shooting for the stars.

Recommendation: Back Starlust each-way @25/1 with Bet365 to win the Hong Kong Sprint at Sha Tin on 8 December.