Hong Kong Vase: Fabre's superb record can continue with 25/1 shot

HKIR – an economical four-letter cluster to summarize the high-quality quartet of races staged at Hong Kong's Sha Tin racecourse in early November. It stands for "Hong Kong International Races", a rather less presumptuous claim to elite international status than the "Breeders Cup World Championships" held in the US a month or so earlier. But the Sha Tin meet likewise offers truly quality fare.

Hong Kong also keeps things very simple. All four races are on turf. There's a sprint over six furlongs (Hong Kong Sprint), a mile race (Hong Kong Mile), the most prestigous and valuable contest of the day over ten furlongs (Hong Kong Cup), and a race at the classic European middle-distance trip of 12 furlongs (Hong Kong Vase).

The home team have been formidable in recent years. This is nowhere more evident in the Sprint, where the home team have won 20 of the 26 runnings and an awesome nine of the last ten.

In the Mile, Hong Kong has emerged as a powerhouse after a slow start in the previous millennium (local horses took just one of the first ten runnings over the period 1991-2000). They are now keeping foreign raiders firmly at bay, again taking nine of the last ten editions.

The pattern of the Cup has also shifted in recent years: After a very even international split of winners over the period 1988-2011 – in which no less than eleven different nations took the trophy home – Hong Kong has asserted control, winning nine of the last fifteen editions, with Japan accounting for all other six runnings. Europe simply hasn't featured since the early days of this contest.

The exception to this pattern of recent local dominance can be found in the Vase. Only here does Europe still rule the roost, with 22 wins out of a total of 31 runnings dating back to 1994, with only Japan (five wins) putting up any real resistance.

Digging into the detail of the Vase even more, France leads with way with 11 wins, precisely a half of Europe's total haul. And their most successful trainer is André Fabre, who has quite the record in this race - over the years, he has sent 13 runners to this Vase, notching up a remarkable three wins, four second-place finishes, and one third-place finish. That's impressive.

All this is helpful background in this instance, because if there is one horse that The AntePoster considers vastly overpriced for the 32nd running of the Hong Kong Vase in a month's time, it is without a doubt Fabre's Sosie, who is priced up at baffling 25/1. This has all the makings of a stonking each-way betting opportunity for those quick enough to act.

Rationale:

• Sosie is a multiple Group-1 winner over 10 and 12 furlongs with a preference for good ground;

  
  

• He has been third and fourth in the last two runnings of the Arc de Triomphe, on ground softer than he cares for;

  
  

• His overall profile is one of an ultra-reliable horse. He has been at least placed (for betting purposes) in 11 of his 12 starts, the sole exception being this year's Coral Eclipse, in which he was forced to make the running for the only time in his career;

  
  

• This is an attractive antepost market in which there are significant doubts about the top horses in the betting: Calandagan goes to the Japan Cup and will almost certainly not take in this race a fortnight later (as a gelding, his racing longevity matters), Minnie Hauk is a significant doubt and hardly appealing after disappointing as heavy favourite in the BC Turf last weekend, Rebel's Romance is "under consideration" for the race but no more, while Japan's exciting Masquerade Ball has alternative domestic options as well as an entry in the Hong Kong Cup. And the list goes on....
  

• In contrast to whole swathes of this market, Sosie is an intended runner and on track (per André Fabre this morning).

Only two boomakers are pricing up this market, which makes it rather illiquid. It is therefore unlikely that the 25/1 available (offered by Bet365) or indeed the still highly attractive 20/1 (offered by Unibet) will last long following publication of this article. However, we believe even 16/1 offers decent value, as Sosie looks sure to start in single figures come the day. For example, he is three times the price of defending champion Giavellotto, who was behind him in the Arc (another who didn't care for ground that soft - he's obviously got a shot too).

Note that Bet365 are offering a quarter of the odds, so in a situation where they and Unibet are at odds parity, the former should be chosen.

Recommendation: Back Sosie each-way at 25/1 with Bet365 to win the Hong Kong Vase on Sunday 14 December. In our view anything down to 16/1 represents value.