Hong Kong Vase: Shoot for this Fantastic Moon at 150/1

Hats off to Bet365, who at the time of writing were the only major European bookmaker to price up the “HKIR”, the highly valuable Hong Kong International Races contested on the turf of Sha Tin on Sunday 8 December. Not that analysis of the resulting antepost books brings much clarity to the would-be punter. The haze over who will actually turn up is reflected in the fact that Bet365’s book for each of the four key races – Hong Kong Sprint, Hong Kong Mile, Hong Kong Cup and Hong Kong Vase, over six, eight, ten and twelve furlongs respectively – simply lists every single entrant as of 25 October, which works out at a total of 193 horses for just four races. Head-spinning stuff. So well done again to the team who went to the trouble of pricing this equine army up.

The AntePoster pored over these fields for a while, checked the various newsflow, pondered a bit, sniffed around the newsflow again...hmm, still hazy for the most part. Indeed, the antepost analysis exercise was on the verge of being postponed for another week or so when a small nugget of antepost gold was found glistening right at the bottom of the entries for the Hong Kong Vase. More on the horse in question in a moment.

Hong Kong Vase a relatively weak G1

Of the major international 12-furlong Group 1 turf races that pepper the last quarter of the year in the northern hemisphere, the Hong Kong Vase is typically the weakest. Partly this is because Hong Kong is a racing power that is speed-dominated: A bit like the US, this “special administrative region” of China is home to very smart sprinters, crack milers, potent ten-furlong types, but only so-so types when it comes to the revered European and Japanese middle-distance trip of 12 furlongs. Hence Hong Kong has taken this prize on just three occasions in the thirty years of its existence, with Europe and Japan almost always providing the winner.

But even the Euro-Japanese roster of winners hardly constitutes a list of the globe’s top middle-distance horses over the last three decades – not surprising at a time of year when heavyweight 12-furlong races such as the Arc de Triomphe, Breeders Cup Turf, and Japan Cup have just been run. Indeed, it’s worth noting that the two “stars” on the Hong Kong Vase's roll of honour over the last ten years – two-time winners Glory Vase (from Japan) and Highland Reel (from Ireland) – were beaten far more often than not in their own back yards during their careers. In short, the best horses in training rarely contest this race, and you do not have to be a top-notcher to win it (for all that Highland Reel in particular admittedly was). To ram home the point, take the three most recent other winners of this race (Junko, Win Marilyn, Mogul) and subject their career form to close analysis. Decent enough types…but far from being legends of the turf. Indeed, many an observer would describe them as barely G1-quality horses.

Astronomical price on classy German horse

But back to Bet365’s book on the 2024 edition of the Hong Kong Vase. What caught The AntePoster’s eye at co-68th place in the betting was the presence of Germany’s Fantastic Moon at 150/1. Yes, 150/1. That’s a truly monstrous price for a two-time G1 winner in a race of this calibre (by way of comparison, Junko and Mogul each had one G1 coming into their respective Vases, while Win Marilyn was a G1 maiden).

Fantastic Moon has a turn of foot but he is also laden with stamina - a winner of the German Derby out of a sire who won the same. This distance is what he wants. His record over 11 furlongs or further reads 110110, the two “duck eggs” being the Arc de Triomphe vintages of 2023 and 2024. The latter defeat (9th of 16 behind Bluestocking six weeks ago, beaten more than nine lengths) is a throw-out pure and simple: The deterioration of the ground that day as the rain continued to pelt the Longchamp turf was so bad that connections tried to withdraw their horse, bogs not being Fantastic Moon’s thing. But informed by the authorities that it was too late to do that without paying a hefty penalty of EUR 55,000, the owners decided they could have a less expensive day out by simply watching him flounder in the mud. Which he duly did.

The (relative) flop in the 2023 Arc following his ruthless treatment of the opposition in the G2 Prix Niel three weeks earlier is more disappointing given that the ground was relatively fast in that year's Arc. But to be beaten six lengths that day from a wide draw by the magnificent Ace Impact was perhaps no disgrace. The AntePoster doubts the likes of Junko, Win Marilyn, and Mogul would have got any closer. And Fantastic Moon has many other pieces of form that show he can hold his own with all but the very best on the planet. And that's where things get exciting. The great majority of the field won’t run by definition as the race is limited to 14 starters. Most of the top-notchers quoted have no chance of turning up (Calandagan, Goliath, Auguste Rodin). Just two other high-class types are known to be “under consideration” (Rebel’s Romance, Jan Brueghel), and even they are not confirmed as certain runners yet. The Australians Without a Fight and Buckaroo don’t look good enough (they certainly weren't good enough in Europe, which is why they were moved Down Under for easier pickings). And the vast majority of the other rivals at shorter prices are inferior horses. To give one example, take Dubai Honour, who is quoted at 16/1. Would that be the same Dubai Honour that Fantastic Moon saw off comfortably over this very same trip in the G1 Grosser Preis von Baden at Baden-Baden racecourse just ten weeks ago? The very same, yet quoted here a tenth of the price. Make no mistake, Bet365 have got this horribly wrong – Fantastic Moon is a serious contender if he shows up for the Hong Kong Vase. But there’s the rub.

Two big snags

Anyone contemplating a wager on Fantastic Moon for this race should be aware of two clear negatives about this bet – without which the price really would be too good to be true:

Participation uncertain: For all that he has an entry in the Hong Kong Vase, Fantastic Moon is currently in Tokyo to contest the Japan Cup in a week’s time (a race of much higher quality, incidentally, for which he stands sixth in the betting at a best-priced 20/1 at the time of writing). And from the newsflow it is clear his participation in the Vase is only a possibility that will hinge on his performance on 24 November, among other things. To quote trainer Sarah Steinberg: “If things go well in Japan, we’re considering adding a run in the Hong Kong Vase. Fanta came out of the Arc in great shape and has been training excellently. We are very optimistic about the trip to Asia. The flight leaves on November 13 directly for Tokyo.” The words “go well” are rather nebulous, but clearly Fantastic Moon will have to satisfy his connections in his race on Sunday week to even be considered for a jaunt to Hong Kong. And for good measure, a turnaround time of 14 days will also need to be factored into the decision-making process. So caveat emptor – this horse might not even run.

Rainfall on race day: As described above, Fantastic Moon has rarely shown his best on soft going. Indeed, debut aside he has never won without the letter "G" somewhere in the going description. So in the event of incessant rain before and during the race his chances would be seriously compromised. However, it should be pointed out that Hong Kong’s racetracks are rivalled perhaps only by Singapore’s Kranji for their astonishing drainage properties. Designed with a sophisticated sand substratum specifically for a city where downpours are commonplace, only heavy rain on the day itself is likely to bring about the kind of attritional going Fantastic Moon dislikes. In short, it’s a risk, but this is not Longchamp or Munich, where moisture lingers and this horse has often struggled. At Sha Tin, yielding ground after prolonged heavy rain can be upgraded to good even on the same day as the deluge in question. In June 2020, indeed, Sha Tin absorbed half a metre of rain in the 48 hours leading up to one raceday without the meeting being compromised.

Summary: An extreme risk vs. reward play

It’s a most unusual situation for a horse with doubts swirling over his participation to appeal as an outstanding antepost wager. Readers should therefore be absolutely clear in their minds that Fantastic Moon may not even enter the starting gates for the Hong Kong Vase on 8 December. But the quid pro quo for that extreme risk is the astonishing reward of 150/1 odds for a high-calibre stayer in what is likely to be far from a top-class Group 1 race. Aside from anything else, fun can be had here for exceptionally small stakes.

In stark contrast to conventional wisdom in situations where a horse is a doubtful starter, an each-way play is recommended too, as the 30/1 place part of such a bet (the usual fixed fifth of the odds) is arguably even more attractive than the 150/1 headline price for the win. If Fantastic Moon runs, The AntePoster would put his chance of placing at somewhere between 1/1 and 3/1, depending on the final strength of the field. Either way, that’s a veritable chasm between reflected odds and likely reality, even accounting for non-runner risk. So chapeau once again to the Bet365 traders, who can be forgiven a tired error after such a pricing marathon – after all, based on the order these races appear on their website, Fantastic Moon just might have been the 190th horse they priced up.

Recommendation: Back Fantastic Moon each-way to win the Hong Kong Vase on 8 December @150/1 with Bet365.