UAE Derby: Take Japan to win again with yet another outsider

The rise of Japan as a superpower in horse racing dates back a long way on the turf, but it is only in the last decade – most notably in the last few years with the emergence of superstar and Dubai World Cup favourite Forever Young – that the Japanese have also become a force to be feared on the dirt.

The UAE Derby is a good case in point. Admittedly, the leading dirt racing nation (USA) rarely send anything like its best to this meeting, as the Triple Crown trail is generally pursued domestically, but the statistics for the 26 years of this race tell the story of a remarkable trend reversal: in the first 22 editions the Japanese took just one running (2016, Lani), but since 2022 they have won every single year. That's four straight.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, the unbeaten Pyromancer is the favourite to take this edition, not least because his unbeaten record of three straight wins includes the very same race taken by Forever Young two years ago, before that horse then travelled to the Middle East and conquered all in both Riyadh (Saudi Derby) and Dubai (UAE Derby).

But interestingly, Forever Young is the only one of the last four Japanese winners to have actually started favourite for the race. The 2022 edition was won by Crown Pride – only fourth favourite of the Japanese entrants) – and neither Derma Sotogake (2023) nor Admire Daytona) carried the most money of punters betting on a Japanese horse to take home the prize.

This could be the case again, for at 12/1 Japan's Wonder Dean looks a decent win threat here, as well as having a huge place chance (four-place terms available at 10/1):

• Was beaten only 0.5 lengths into second by Pyromancer (went on to win the only G1 on dirt for 2yos in Japan) in the Mochinoki Sho over 9 furlongs in November. Having come from further back that day in a huge field, we think there's a reasonable chance he can reverse that form.

  
  

• On his next start in the Poinsettia Stakes, Wonder Dean finished second again to a horse called Rock Ptarmigan, a horse who had been disappointing in two turf starts after a winning debut. This looked a rather indifferent performance initially, but two days ago Rock Ptarmigan returned to crush a decent field, including the highly regard Finger (had won his previous two), by multiple lengths.

  
  

• Dropped back to a mile in the Saudi Derby, Wonder Dean was given an astonishingly poor ride to finish fourth from that otherwise excellent jockey Oisin Murphy. This was a race around a single bend, but Murphy kept his mount five, six, and at one point even seven horses wide, losing as astonishing amount of ground.

  
  

• Wonder Dean has a stamina-laden pedigree (sire Dee Majesty was a serious middle-distance horse), and this step back up in trip looks ideal for his son. Daisuke Takanayagi's charge is also very well drawn in 5.

In summary, this classy Japanese horse has a level of form that already bears comparison with the favourite, has had his form boosted hugely in the last 48 hours, and is trading a double figures because of his performance in Riyadh last time, which we believe was much better than it looked. He's an appealing bet.

Recommendation for UAE Derby, Meydan 1330 (UK time), 28 March:

Back Wonder Dean each-way at 12/1 with Paddy Power or Skybet. The 10/1 available with Bet365 (who offer four places) is almost as appealing.