Irish 2000 Guineas: Seize the value on this forgotten horse at 25/1

One of the leading lights of last year’s flat season in the 2-year-old division was Brian Meehan’s Rashabar, who runs in the Manton silks made famous by Robert Sangster. This horse has been consistently underestimated. He racked up quite the CV in high-level stakes contests last year – winning the G2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in June at a massive 80/1, again neglected in the market at 12/1 when running Whistlejacket to less than a length in the G1 Prix Morny at Deauville in August, and then failing by just a neck to record his first G1 win in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere in October, beaten by Camille Pissarro but yet again outperforming his betting status (17/2 fourth favourite).

Proof that he had trained on was provided upon his comeback in the G3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury, where – afforded at least some respect in the betting as 6/1 third favourite – he was beaten a length and a half into second by Jonquil. Given that Meehan is not a trainer who has his horses primed to put in a peak performance on their comebacks that was a very good effort – and “very good” can surely be upgraded to “excellent” bearing in mind that the winner then failed (by just a head) to win the French 2000 Guineas on Sunday.

After some agonising between the English and the French Guineas, Meehan had decided his colt would head to Paris too but was thwarted in this aim by his colt developing a fever some six days’ out from the race. Caution dictated that Rashabar had to be withdrawn, with the newsflow being as follows: "Unfortunately Rashabar will miss the Poule d’Essai des Poulains this Sunday. He spiked a temperature a couple of days ago and subsequent bloods have shown he is not 100%. As always in these situations it is better to be cautious and we will now aim for the Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh.”

On this basis, as well as generally given his juvenile profile, Rashabar simply has to be backed at 25/1 to win said Irish 2000 Guineas on 24 May. That price looked to smack of recency bias even before Jonquil’s exploits in Paris, and with the Greenham form stamped it looks simply extraordinary.

The market has Field of Gold (beaten by Rashabar on the only occasion the pair have met) as the heavy favourite but it does not appear a certainty that the unfortunate runner-up at Newmarket will actually go there (in the aftermath of the Newmarket defeat, Gosden snr. expressed a preference to go straight to the St. James Palace at Royal Ascot). And if that colt does go to The Curragh, it looks doubtful that Juddmonte will throw a second dart at this target by sending second-favourite Cosmic Year across the Irish Sea too.

And that’s just the Juddmonte doubts. Where the omnipotent Ballydoyle are concerned there are any number of question marks. After taking this prize seven times in a decade between 2008 and 2017, Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish 2000 Guineas just once in the last seven years, and his challenge this year looks to be wilting. Third-favourite Twain has been withdrawn from the race. Officer is clearly promising but hardly has doesn’t yet have any high-class form in the book. Henri Matisse and Camille Pissarro look unlikely candidates to reappear just 13 days after their Paris exertions, with the former earmarked for the St James’s Palace and the latter likely to contest the French Derby (Prix Du Jockey Club). And while Expanded can be expected to improve hugely from his Newmarket run, he was simply dreadful there.

For Godolphin, fourth favourite Ruling Court is almost certain to go to the Derby while Opera Ballo (who pulled his chance away in the Craven) looks an unlikely traveller. Joseph O’Brien’s Scorthy Champ, a son of Mehmas who has yet to prove he wants a stiff mile, was another to disappoint in the English Guineas, and Jessica Harrington’s Hotazhell was withdrawn just prior to the French version and his status is unclear.

A further box ticked with Rashabar is his versatility where ground conditions are concerned. His Coventry win was on lightning fast ground, his G1 narrow defeat to Camille Pissarro in Paris was on truly soft ground. And while he too has to prove himself over mile, it shouldn’t be problematic on breeding: Holy Roman Emperor has plenty of progeny who get further, while the dam’s sire Camelot was not only a Derby winner but the (moral) winner of the St Leger over 14.5 furlongs.

With the race just 12 days way, we are taking the risk of double exposure with an each-way play. While the win price of 25/1 is appealing in itself we readily concede that beating Field Of Gold will be quite a task if that horse is entered, whereas the 5/1 implied price for the place is even more attractive given the doubts swirling over many of those prominent in the betting.

We expect this price to shorten dramatically over the next week or so.

Recommendation: Back Rashabar each-way to win the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday 24 May. Best price of 25/1 is available with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, or SkyBet.