Irish Champion Stakes: Time for the autumn ground horses

So Ombudsman has been withdrawn from consideration for the Irish Champion Stakes. Cue crashing prices for everything else, above all the new (heavy) favourite Delacroix, whose price has been slashed from 5/2 to a best-priced 5/4. Even that looks unlikely to hold – the majority of bookmakers are now offering odds-on only.

The removal of a huge player at the top of the market has lured us right in, but not to the other main players at the top of this market. Delacroix looks short enough for a horse who has won one of his last three. Zahrann has yet to beat a horse of real quality. And Shin Emperor has to bounce back from a dismal last run and prove he can do it on ground with some give in it.

For ground with "give" is surely what awaits racing rans at Leopardstown in ten days' time. The forecast is for significant amounts of rain from Sunday onwards, and we wouldn't be at all to be surprised to see attritional conditions for all horses running in the south of Dublin come Saturday week.

Not that the pair of Group 1 performers we like in this race need it hock deep. Just no "firm" anywhere in the going. And we think that risk is infinitesimally small, so advise backing both: Anmaat at 8/1:

• Winner (despite trouble in running) of Champion Stakes at Ascot last October, beating Calandagan and every other runner fair and square

  
  

• Runner-up (half a length) to Los Angeles on seasonal reappearance in the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup, a length ahead of Kalpana

  
  

• Runner-up to Ombudsman (beaten just two lengths) in the G1 Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot on ground that was much faster than he cares for

These three runs are all of very high quality and a repeat of this level of form gives Owen Burrows's charge a clear chance of the win, not mention a massive, odds-on, chance of placing. Like his trainer, Anmaat is top quality and perennially underestimated. This is a ludicrous price.

White Birch at 10/1:

• 4th to Los Angeles (beaten 1.75 lengths on seasonal reappearance in the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup in early May, finishing just behind Kalpana. Big eyecatcher, as is apparent from Timeform's description of his race: "unlucky not to finish closer in his bid to follow up this time around; held up, travelled well, switched under 3f out, denied a run under 2f out, switched again under 1f out, nearest at the finish"

  
  

• 2nd to Los Angeles (beaten a neck) on seasonal reappearance in the G2 Mooresbridge in late May

  
  

• Won G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup in May 2024, slamming Auguste Rodin (would win G1 Prince of Wales next time out) by three lengths

We believe both of these horses are priced in line with "recency bias", i.e. they have not received any headline coverage for the last two months because they have not been near a racecourse, hence they have attracted little betting interest.

On all recent form, however, they are both players here and we find it extraordinary that their prices have not been shortened much more with the news of the Ombudsman decision.

The each-way angle appeals in both cases, not least given the possibility of a field with less than eight runners.

Recommendation:

Back Anmaat each-way at 8/1 with Bet365 to win the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on 13 September. Back White Birch each-way at 10/1 (generally) for the same race.