Irish Derby: This knight's armour glints just a little too bright at 100/1

This year's Irish Derby looks to be a poor edition of the final mid-summer classic of the North European flat season. While some may purr over the fact that the 1-2-3 from the English Derby have turned up, the general consensus is that this year's Epsom showpiece, a strange race in which the 1-2 home held that position for most of the contest, is unlikely to go down as one of the more stellar editions of the race. Time will tell us more, of course, but for now the jury is very much out on the quality of the race.

Another feature of the Epsom Derby is that it was run on relatively slow ground, and the ground at The Curragh is likely to be considerably faster. So much so that connections of the Epsom Derby second, Lazy Griff, have already warned that their colt may be rerouted to alternative pastures on the European mainland. The third horse home, Tennessee Stud, shined most brightly as a 2-year-old in races run on good-to-yielding and heavy ground respectively, and he also left his reappearance this season behind Delacroix on fastish ground well behind at Epsom, where the ground had plenty of give in it.

It is also worth noting that odds-on favourite Lambourn has only run once at The Curragh, and it did not go well. Indeed, that performance in the G2 Beresford Stakes (last of five, beaten almost 8 lengths) is the only regressive step on an otherwise progressive trajectory. Perhaps it had nothing to do with the course, but it still leaves a question mark. As does his (relatively) lowly rating: Over the last four decades, of the horses to notch up the Derby Double in Ireland after winning at Epsom, all were rated higher than Lambourn.

Field set to cut up

A further feature of the race is the likelihood of various horses (in addition to the doubtful Lazy Griff) being withdrawn from this already small-ish field. The Ballydoyle outfit currently has five of the ten runners, and at least two of these (possibly more) are likely to be withdrawn from Sunday's marquee race. Indeed, both Shackleton and Serious Contender ran only last week at Royal Ascot and should be considered highly unlikely runners.

Put all this together and you have a strong case for having "an each-way swing at one" while three-place terms are available, as there is a strong chance this will not be the case come final declaration time on Friday morning. Both Pride of Arras and Green Impact intrigue, but the former was simply dreadful in the Derby and his visually impressive Dante win has not been franked by any horse to have run back since. For his part, Green Impact may well improve for the considerable step up in trip (has never raced over further than 9 furlongs), but he hardly took a big leap forward from his 2000 Guineas 6th when beating Currawood by half a length at Leopardstown last time out. Perhaps he's the one, but...

Monster outsider play appeals

...The AntePoster fancies a small flutter in this race at a monster price. Step forward Sir Dinadan, runner-up to Amiloc in the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood on his only start this season. Amiloc is one of the more exciting middle-distance horses in training, having won the King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot despite apparently disliking the fast ground experience. Admittedly, the form of those who ran behind the pair in the Cocked Hat does not look pretty, but Sir Dinadan was well clear of the remainder and has every right to improve on just his second seasonal start. We do not know this one's ceiling yet.

It should be emphasized that – as befits an extreme high-reward play – the chances of Sir Dinadan winning the Irish Derby look very remote. But while he is also clearly an odds-against shot to even make the places, i.e. this bet is highly likely to be a losing one, we consider the effective 20/1 for that latter eventuality to occur (a fifth of the odds of 100/1, three places) to be a genuine value bet worthy of a flutter. And if done at all, this wager should be placed before declarations on Friday morning, as if this race ends up with less than eight runners no bookmaker will be offering three-place terms.

Non-runner risk still applies but Ralph Beckett's stable confirmed to The AntePoster on Wednesday that Sir Dinadan was an intended runner. Almost all bookmakers are 50/1 on this horse, but two are offering double that and to us this looks just irresistible. For small stakes, with Bet365 or Betway.

Recommendation: Back Sir Dinadan each-way at 100/1 with Bet365 or Betway to win the Irish Derby at The Curragh on Sunday 29 July.