Juddmonte International: Time to play with Fire at 12/1

Prominent racehorse owner Jeff Smith has "previous" with the Juddmonte International at York, the key August middle-distance test for three-year-olds and upwards that is now routinely classified as one of the strongest races in the calendar anywhere in the world.

Those of us who have been in this game a decade or more will surely not fail to recall the edition of 2015, when the mighty Golden Horn (4/9 favourite after gobbling up the Derby and the Eclipse – and later that same season the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc de Triomphe) was downed by one Arabian Queen at 50/1. As the betting prices suggest, it was a seismic shock not far off this week's Qirat sensation. You won't get 50/1 on Arabian Queen's daughter out of Sea The Stars, See The Fire, repeating the trick in three weeks' time. But you can get 12/1, and that looks a highly appealing each-way bet for a horse who has 20 August on the Knavesmire firmly inked in the diary for the following reasons:

• For a horse who has yet to win a Group 1, See The Fire has run to a very high level of form on multiple occasions. Indeed, she has already exceeded her mother's Juddmonte International rating (Timeform, RPRs) by several pounds...in her most recent run at York (see below).

  
  

• See The Fire's run in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood yesterday (third, beaten approx. 6 lengths) needs serious upgrading, as to our eyes she was beaten no further by Whirl at the finish line than she lost in a farcical flag start. This performance can essentially be thrown out (as, arguably, the race should have been: third favourite Bedtime Story suffered exactly the same fate – this race was over in the first five seconds).

  
  

• See The Fire is unbeaten at York. Specifically, she is two from two, having won the G2 Strensall Stakes easily last year ("won going away") and the G2 Middleton Stakes back in May this year.

  
  

• The latter effort, one of the most extraordinary pattern-class performances put up by any horse in 2025, saw her draw 12 lengths clear of her opposition. What's more, this performance was extraordinary on the clock as well as the eye, being by far the fastest relative time on the card (more than two seconds faster than the Dante over C&D run 35 minutes later; note also that a certain Merchant won the last race of the day).

  
  

• The top-class competition for this race continues to shrink. Calandagan's connection decided to pull the plug at the declaration stage earlier this week, while Field of Gold – already a doubtful participant – now looks extremely unlikely, as rolling the dice by bringing this one back from an injury in just three weeks is at complete odds with the patient approach that typifies both trainers and owners. Most of the O'Brien's other than Delacroix look highly unlikely participants, while other class acts such as Anmaat and White Birch are ground doubts at this stage.

In summary, we believe a return to York can see Andrew Balding's mare put in another top-class performance. If that proves to be the case, we think she has a chance of placing that is hugely in excess of the 2.4/1 represented by the place part of the bet. Can See The Fire actually win it? Perhaps not. But we still think the chances of that happening are generously reflected in the 12/1 price given her exceptional course form. They certainly look much better than those of her mother did when the gates opened on the Knavesmire for this race a decade ago.

Recommendation: Back See The Fire each-way at 12/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, Vbet) to win the Juddmonte International on 20 August at York. Should that price disappear, 10/1 is still fair.