July Cup: And then I saw her face... don't monkey around with this 10/1

Are you a Believer?

Wasn't it difficult not to be last season? Superfilly Believing won the listed Achilles Stakes at Haydock in June, then went through a remarkable sequence of seven races at Group 2 or (in most cases) Group 1 level over the next six months, rewarding each-way backers on every occasion. The AntePoster wonders how many times, if ever, a British-trained sprinter running at the top level in the UK, Ireland and France has racked up such an unbroken record of excellence. (Any statistical feedback appreciated). True, Believing didn't win a Group 1 in 2024, but she was oh so close. And many a neutral would argue oh so unlucky. In both the Nunthorpe Stakes (York) and the Flying Five (The Curragh), a dreadful draw appeared to cost her victory at the expense of arch-rival Bradsell, who notched up his name instead on both those trophies. Worth watching both races back if you're unconvinced.

Transferred from Highclere Racing to the Coolmore mob for a tidy sum after acting up at the Breeders Cup at Del Mar (withdrawn at start, never competed), Believing was then prepared for the Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai earlier this year, which she duly won, burying the Group 1 hoodoo in style. Box ticked.

Covered by the best...but racing career continues

Believing was then launched into her new career as a broodmare, being covered by Frankel early in the spring. But her racing days were not over. Under UK regulations, fillies and mares in the UK are able to race within a 120-day period of being covered. What's more, there appears to be no reason why they can't run to at least the same level: The suspension of the oestrus cycle can iron out behavioral issues (and the virgin Believing had plenty of those), while there is also the possibility of a potential hormonal boost thanks to the production of progesterone.

Now, this a contentious area of debate, and no study proves that mares improve for being in foal. But there is consensus that they can continue to thrive on the racecourse during this period. The AntePoster's view would be to throw this issue out as largely irrelevant given the haze of the debate. Except that on her first run in foal...

Too much (in) Charlie?

Believing's first run when in foal to Frankel came on the opening day of of Royal Ascot, in the big Group 1 sprint now known as the King Charles III Stakes. The bare record shows she finished 11th of 20, beaten a sobering five lengths. This was not just a disappointing run – it was a dismal outcome for the 3/1 favourite, whose previous ten races had been a model of consistency. So on the back of that performance, how can one possibly make a case for her winning the July Cup in ten days' time? Was the in-foal thing working against her?

The devil here lies doubly in the detail: tactics and draw. Let's start with the former. The first four horses to reach the winning post in the King Charles III Stakes came from stalls 16, 15, 14 and 17. Indeed, of the first eight horses home, only one came from a single-figure stall (Kerdos, 5), and this fellow left the stands-side group to join the middle group of horses, albeit fairly late in the race. And where was Believing in all this? In the coffin slot, stall 1. Quite clearly the worst possible place to be drawn in that particular race on that particular day

But that's perhaps not even the key issue, though it did plenty of damage. Worried about Believing getting into the race in sufficient time in this drop in trip, connections opted to shake up the tactics in favour of "hustle" – George Boughey and Ryan Moore concocted a plan to get urgent with this mare relatively early in the race. So much so that she virtually led the race with a furlong to go.

The tactical shake-up was not a success. Fair enough to try, but in the absence of any cover (exacerbated by her extreme post position) this experiment almost certainly failed to show Believing to her best advantage. Hustling and eyeballing the leaders mid-race and seeing off all-comers is not what this mare does best. Hitting the front late is what works for her, be it over five or six furlongs. All her best races testify as much. And that's what connections will revert to in the July Cup.

The three "Rs": ratings, ratings, ratings...

As with any race, a sensible initial approach to the July Cup from a wagering perspective is to view the betting market though the dispassionate lens of ratings. Forget the vibes, the whispers, the steamers, the buzz horses. On the balance of form (in recent memory), who are the best horses lining up as we approach the biggest midsummer sprint of them all in the North European flat racing season?

There are various official ratings (BHA, Timeform, Racing Post, to name but the most familiar), and they differ slightly. But however you (or indeed they) slice it, Believing comes right at the top or as near as dammit. She is "objectively" either the best horse in the race or within a pound or two of that level. Yet she's a double-figure price.

Meanwhile, your July Cup co-favourites at 9/2 are Flora of Bermuda, whose last five form figures are 45323 and has never won at G1 level, and Symbol of Honour, who likewise hasn't notched up a G1 win and scraped home last time by a neck from a filly who was recently 12th in the Commonwealth Cup. The two other horses trading at shorter prices than the selection are Inisherin (15/2), who flopped in this race last year off the back of a big Royal Ascot win but returns for a second bite of the cherry off a Royal Ascot flop, and the perennially disappointing Whistlejacket (10/1), who won the G1 Prix Morny as a juvenile last season but has mustered just one narrow victory at relatively humble listed level in five runs since.

Summary: This is yet another relatively poor Group 1 sprint in which the best two horses from the strongest Royal Ascot sprint (Lazzat, Satono Reve, 1-2 in the QEII) haven't turned up. Nor will the winner of the Commonwealth Cup or any of the top horses from the King Charles III Stakes be present. Yes, several other horses could scoope the July Cup pot, including runners not previously mentioned here: Arizona Blaze (16/1) – if he run – and Big Mojo (20/1) stand out as the appealing outsiders at the prices. But the market has surely overreacted to one bad run on the part of the mare who should logically be considered the best (or at least close to the best) horse in the race.

The message from George Boughey yesterday (3 July) at Yarmouth was that Believing is in "great form" and ready to rock'n roll for Newmarket's big sprint on 12 July. "Forget her Ascot run and she [should be] a warm order at the top of the market".

We agree. At her King Charles III price (3/1) we wouldn't touch her with a bargepole. Push that out to 5/1 and we'd reluctantly still pass. 7/1? Very fair, go on then.

But 10/1? We're a Believer, and couldn't leave her at that price if we tried.

Recommendation: Back Believing at 10/1 with William Hill, 888 , Bet365 or Unibet to win the Al Basti July Cup at Newmarket on 12 July. Win only.