Kentucky Derby - post-draw preview and betting angles

Introduction 

It’s Kentucky Derby time. Not quite the “race that stops a nation” aka the Melbourne Cup, but by far and away the biggest race in the calendar for Americans, many of whom will tune in for no other horse racing event. It's also the only major race in the US that features a 20-horse field, which makes for any number of hard-luck stories as jockeys and horses jostle each other desperately for position. Add to this 150,000 very vocal horse fans, many of whom are many mint juleps down by time the horses are being led into the gates, and you have plenty of reasons why a horse might not give its true running.

So a daft race to bet on? Funnily enough, that's not the case when viewed through the prism of favouritism. Favourites have won 56 of the 150 runnings, a decent strike rate of almost 38%. Indeed, betting every favourite this millennium would have been a profitable exercise. But beware the droughts: betting every favourite between 1980 and 1999 would have lost you every cent...

Below we look at the field in detail, assigning star ratings to each horse to illustrate who we believe the under-priced, rightly-priced, and over-priced horses are. We then suggest possible betting angles of interest. But do remember, anything can happen in this unique contest, and your horse’s race may effectively be run before they’ve finished coming round the first bend.

Enjoy the read.

Horse-by-horse analysis

The analysis below was published on 27 April following the post-position draw, and the prices given below were accurate at that point but are obviously subject to change.

The stars (⭐) in the table denote what we believe is the relative appeal of horse as a bet at the price indicated at the time of writing, whereby five stars indicates an extremely attractive wagering proposition and one star an extremely unattractive one.

The horse below are listed in draw order. It is worth noting that the wider stalls – 17, 18, 19 and 20 – have the worst statistical record in this race. Being “hung wide” is a real disadvantage, as jockeys either have to ask their mounts for a huge effort in the first two furlongs to gain a favourable position, expending too much energy in doing so, or they have to drop back and work their way through the whole field. Stall 1 is also a compromising post position (somewhat counter-intuitively as this horse is on the inside and has the shortest distance to run), as this horse has less room for manoeuvre and can often be a victim of multiple horses coming across to interfere with their running line. In addition to a horse's recent form figures (last five runs, left to right), we also provide each horse's best Beyer speed figure from their recent campaigns. The Beyer speed scale is perhaps the most popular speed metric applied to racetrack performances in US horse racing (others include TimeformUS, Brisnet, Thorograph).

Stall 1

Citizen Bull 20/1

Form: 311-14 Top Beyer: 98

Trainer/jockey: Baffert / Garcia

Price appeal: ⭐⭐

Comments: Champion two-year-old after easily winning Breeders Cup Juvenile; brilliant return in Robert B Lewis in early Feb, coming home almost 4 lengths clear of Rodriguez despite giving weight and stumbling at start; things then went horribly wrong after a two-month break when he threw in the towel early in Santa Anita Derby and was beaten the best part of ten lengths by Journalism. No chance on that last piece of form, draws the hated 1 gate, and is very unlikely to get the easy lead that has served him so well in the past, but dangerous to completely dismiss a very good horse on the basis of one bad run.

Stall 2

Neoequos 80/1

Form: 22-133 Top Beyer: 91

Trainer/jockey: Joseph / Zayas

Price appeal: ⭐

Comments: Raced over sprint trips first five starts, winning two. Didn’t do badly when stretched out to 8.5 furlongs in the Fountain of Youth in January (third behind Sovereignty, beaten 2.75 lengths); matched that placing when stretched out to 9 furlongs in the Florida Derby (fourth to Tappan Street, faded late to be beaten 4 lengths). Will probably be part of the pace in this race, but all the signs point to the Derby trip being too far for a colt who is not good enough in any case.

Stall 3

Final Gambit 20/1

Form: 3-211 Top Beyer: 90

Trainer/jockey: Cox / Machado

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Made debut on turf at Churchill Downs, finishing third; all three subsequent starts on the all-weather surface at Turfway Parx; quality of first two races there not much to shout about, but very much caught the eye when coming from last to first to win the Jeff Ruby Stakes easily at 15/1 when stepped up to 9 furlongs. There are obvious negative here: His top speed figure is very modest in the context of this field, this will be his first start on dirt, and the Jeff Ruby can hardly be viewed as a convincing pathway to Derby glory. That said, it’s not clear where this one’s ceiling lies, and the proven ability to win coming from the back of a large field has obvious appeal in this race. One of the more interesting outsiders, not dismissed from a good draw.

Stall 4

Rodriguez 16/1

Form: 21-231 Top Beyer: 101

Trainer/jockey: Baffert / Smith

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Stunning maiden winner with huge speed figure; disappointed next two races behind Citizen Bull (Robert B Lewis) and Journalism (Santa Anita Derby) but stable had ordered jockey to sit back both times, whereas this fellow much prefers to lead; proved as much in Wood Memorial, winning gate to wire with another big speed figure. Repeating those tactics over ten furlongs here in a field containing plenty of other speed horses will be quite the task, but he’s a very good colt with a trainer who knows exactly what it takes to win this race. Dangerous.

Stall 5

American Promise 33/1

Form: 41-751 Top Beyer 95

Trainer/jockey: Lukas / Juarez

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Very experienced colt (nine runs) who took a while to warm to the game; finally gained his maiden win on sixth start; well beaten in the Southwest Stakes and Risen Star, but somehow took a quantum leap forward in his next start, running away with the Virginia Derby by almost 8 lengths and breaking the track record for good measure. Slight headscratcher in terms of where that huge improvement came from and Colonial Downs form often doesn't translate to other venues, but this son of Justify (out of a Tapit mare) has been training well and is worth his place in this field.

Stall 6

Admire Daytona 40/1

Form: 22-141 Top Beyer: 90*

Trainer/jockey: Kato / Lemaire

Price appeal: ⭐⭐

Comments: No wins in first three starts, but did run Luxor Café to a nose in a fast time on the last of those runs; easy winner of fourth maiden race at odds of 1/10; modest fourth to Luxor Café in Hyacinth Stakes in February; surprise winner of UAE Derby (qualifier for this race) last time out, but the first three big dirt races on that card were all won by front runners so it's perhaps not form to buy into. In far deeper waters here with so much other early pace signed on and faces a gargantuan task. Draw is at least a positive.

Stall 7

Luxor Café 10/1

Form: 21-111 Top Beyer: 98*

Trainer/jockey: Hori / Moreira

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Has proved unbeatable in Japan since winning his maiden; Hyacinth Stakes win in February validated when fourth-place Admire Daytona took UAE Derby; Fukuryu Stakes win in March visually spectacular though it's doubtful how much quality was in behind. On Japanese speed figures he wouldn’t be dissimilar to Forever Young who went so close last year, and he is one of the very few in this line-up who has plenty of experience navigating big fields, but Hori does not have Yahagi’s shipping prowess, and with his temperament issues he’s a reluctant pass at this price. Has drawn well though.

Stall 8

Journalism 3/1

Form: 311-11 Top Beyer: 108

Trainer/jockey: McCarthy / Rispoli

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Beaten on sprint debut but meteoric improvement going longer; powered past Barnes in San Felipe (earning by some way the highest Beyer speed figure of any horse in this field); easily best in Santa Anita Derby (earned the joint next-highest speed figure in this field, despite being trapped on the rail and having to wait for a run). Big chance of winning this so his cramped odds actually look fair enough, and a troubled trip is probably the biggest threat to this horse given his lack of experience of big fields. Draw looks ideal (main betting rivals have drawn very wide).

Stall 9

Burnham Square 12/1

Form: 31-141 Top Beyer: 96

Trainer/jockey: Wilkes / B Hernandez

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Only gelding in field; runaway maiden winner at Gulfstream in late December, parlayed that into Holy Bull win five weeks later; not so good in Fountain of Youth (traffic issues) but rebounded to take Blue Grass at Keeneland; that didn't look a strong race, but he was forced to take a very wide path and closed well from a part of the track that few horses were winning from during that meet. Another closer who need to get faster, and while that’s not impossible his price has shortened too much now for wagering appeal.

Stall 10

Grande 25/1

Form: 112 Top Beyer: 97

Trainer/jockey: Pletcher / Velazquez

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Unraced as a two-year-old, which is a statistical negative though a recently bucked trend; easy winner of minor races at Gulfstream on his first two starts; ran very well in the Wood Memorial behind Rodriguez last time out, earning a handsome speed figure after a less-than-ideal trip. A 20-horse Kentucky Derby will ask a great deal more of a horse so inexperienced, but no doubting his talent and if this race is to be won by an outsider he’s one of the likeliest candidates.

Stall 11

Flying Mohawk 66/1

Form: 251-12 Top Beyer: 85

Trainer/jockey: Beckman / Ramos

Price appeal: ⭐

Comments: Five of six starts on turf; failed to win on first three outings; won his maiden at Churchill Downs in October, then won an allowance race on 3-yr-old debut at Fair Grounds; owes his place in the field to a runner-up placing on Turfway Parx’s all-weather track in the Jeff Ruby Stakes in March (well behind Final Gambit). All this form is way off what he needs to be competitive here, easy to discard from calculations.

Stall 12

East Avenue 33/1

Form: 11-902 Top Beyer: 96

Trainer/jockey: Walsh / Franco

Price appeal: ⭐⭐

Comments: Good winner on debut; stunning winner on second start (G1 Keeneland Futurity, fast time); sent off 9/5 for Breeders Cup Juvenile on back of that performance but blew the start and never figured; broke better in Risen Star and settled in third, but faded tamely away; sent straight to the lead in the Blue Grass and these tactics seemed to do the trick, as he led until the shadow of the post when overhauled by Burnham Square. Very unlikely that he can lead this field gate to wire over a longer trip with lots of pace competition, but there's no question he’s more talented than most of these. Just the slightest squeak.

Stall 13

Publisher 40/1

Form: 32-643 Top Beyer: 95

Trainer/jockey: Asmussen / I Ortiz

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Seven starts but no wins; beaten eight lengths into 6th in Southwest Stakes; improved to finish 4th in Rebel Stakes (4 lengths behind Sandman); improved again to finish runner-up (beaten 2.5 lengths) by Sandman in Arkansas Derby. These were all incremental steps in the right direction and he clearly outworked stablemate Tiztastic in a recent racecourse gallop, so this maiden isn’t completely out of this. Not uninteresting outsider, mildly off-putting that neither big-name trainer nor big-name jockey have ever won this race.

Stall 14

Tiztastic 20/1

Form: 23-351 Top Beyer: 95

Trainer/jockey: Asmussen / Rosario

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Another highly experienced colt (eight starts); was beaten in four consecutive graded stakes over the last six months (including Southwest and Rebel Stakes); finally landed a big one in the form of the Louisiana Derby last time out over the furthest trip he has tried (9.5 furlongs). That bodes well for step up to this 10-furlong trip, as does the likely strong pace, but there are many closers in this race and several of them look better than this one. Trainer is 0 for 26 in this race, which also tempers enthusiasm.

Stall 15

Render Judgment 150/1

Form: 53-825 Top Beyer: 90

Trainer/jockey: McPeek / Leparoux

Price appeal: ⭐

Comments: Hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since his second start (when he beat American Promise in a maiden special weight); fourth in the Risen Star was OK; second in the Virginia Derby wasn’t dreadful but he was almost 8 lengths behind winner American Promise there; fourth in the Blue Grass just another so-so effort that showed no evidence of progress at the top level. This no-hoper is simply too slow to play any part in this much stronger race, and his presence in the race is owner-driven (trainer wanted to pull him out late last week but was overruled).

Stall 16

Coal Battle 33/1

Form: 11-113 Top Beyer: 91

Trainer/jockey: Briley / Vargas

Price appeal: ⭐⭐

Comments: Won debut on dirt; next two starts saw him tried on turf with no success; embarked on a four-race winning streak when returned to dirt that included the Smarty Jones and the Rebel Stakes; beaten for the first time on dirt in the stronger Arkansas Derby. Great story for a small stable, but relatively slow on speed figures so difficult to see him rebounding to be competitive in this, particularly with this poor draw.

Stall 17

Sandman 11/1

Form: 31-231 Top Beyer: 99

Trainer/jockey: Casse / J Ortiz

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Huge, good-looking colt with loads of experience (nine runs already) but hardly the most straightforward; lost many lengths at start of Southwest Stakes but still finished second despite looking awkward in home stretch; came from well back to finish a close third in Rebel Stakes, but again goofy; put it altogether in Arkansas Derby, partly thanks to very fast pace, but yet again failed to run in a straight line in the final couple of furlongs. His immaturity is definitely a concern and drawing the cursed 17 stall (has never produced a winner) can hardly be viewed as a positive, but he has a huge engine and the likely hot pace may well play into his hands. A big player.

Stall 18

Sovereignty 7/1

Form: 421-12 Top Beyer: 95

Trainer/jockey: Mott / Alvarado

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Powerful closer, eye-catching when demolishing good 8-furlong field over this racetrack in November. Relentless again when mowing down opposition in 8.5-f Fountain of Youth; couldn’t quite get to Tappan Street (injured just before draw for this race) in 9-f Florida Derby; stretch-out to this trip may help. Will be coming hard and late to give Godolphin the prize they crave but others have faster figs so there’s a suspicion a couple of birds may have flown by then. Very bad draw and cramped price also detract from wagering appeal, but he's absolutely respected as a win threat.

Stall 19

Chunk of Gold 50/1

Form: 1-222 Top Beyer: 92

Trainer/jockey: West / Loveberry

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Comments: Winning debut on all-weather surface at Turfway Parx in December then second in a listed race there in January; decent second in Risen Start in February (though thrashed by Magnitude); another step forward when second to Tiztastic in Louisiana Derby. While neither of those performances makes him a serious player in this field, he’s bred for stamina and yet to get the speed setup that his closing style craves, so a likely type to outrun his odds. No throw-out despite his dreadful draw, as he was always going to be dropped in.

Stall 20

Owen Almighty 50/1

Form: 25-216 Top Beyer: 92

Trainer/jockey: Lynch / Castellano

Price appeal: ⭐

Comments: Promising juvenile but form tailed off; dull on return in January; better in Sam F Davis (runner-up); better again when winning the Tampa Bay Derby by multiple lengths having led from the start, though that looks a weak Derby trial now; faded badly when stepped up to 9 furlongs in the Blue Grass, prompting trainer to state that this colt was no longer under consideration for this race, but owners have demanded their day in the sun so he runs. He was one of the better candidates to finish last even before the racing gods hammered another nail into his coffin by assigning him stall 20 of 20.

Stall: AE**

Baeza 25/1

Form: 92-12 Top Beyer: 101

Trainer/jockey: Shirrefs / Berrios

Price appeal: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Comments: No-show on debut; put in a big run behind Rodriguez on second start; ran a fast time breaking his maiden on third outing; delivered a monster effort in the Santa Anita Derby, overhauled by the top-class Journalism in the last half furlong but still got a huge speed figure (second-best in this field). A bit light on experience and will have to cope with the widest draw of all but not ruled out if he makes the final field (needs one horse to drop out).

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* The Beyer figures given for the Japanese horses Luxor Café and Admire Daytona are a rough conversion of Netkeiba speed figures, and should not be taken as gospel.

* Also-eligible, the US term for reserve. As long as one horse drops out between now and Friday evening he will make the field, but will be assigned the outermost stall.

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Summary: betting angles

Journalism has a big chance of winning this, and 3/1 is fair. But The AntePoster believes there's much more value in backing him to win the Triple Crown (Derby, Preakness, Belmont) at 25/1 with Bet365. He really does look good enough to pull it off, and if he wins this well he will start a lot shorter for the Preakness and potentially odds-on for the Belmont, so it would be an exciting betting slip to have.

Sandman looks a decent each-way bet at 10/1 with William Hill to hit the frame (four places, non-runner money back), despite his wide draw. He's very talented, and the hot likely pace should see this closer to best effect.

Outsiders to consider closer to the race when favourable each-way terms are offered (five places possible) if their prices hold up are Rodriguez, Final Gambit, Grande and Chunk of Gold. Any of these would be very appealing if they drift from their current odds.

Finally, we are quite excited by Baeza at 25/1 with Paddy Power, who have now gone non-runner-no-bet on this race (i.e. no antepost risk involved). This very talented colt just needs one horse to scratch to get into the main field, but there are five days for that to happen and it's very likely that one rival will encounter some sort of a problem. On talent he looks very much like one of the top four or five horses in this field, and his odds will adjust accordingly if he makes it in. Rich Strike won the Derby by drawing in to the outside post a couple of years ago, and this horse is far more appealing on paper. If he doesn't draw in you get your money back, so no harm done.

This is a very appealing trading play (for those who back-to-lay using the exchanges), as there is no chance of him starting anywhere near 25/1 if he draws in. By contrast, Paddy Power are still offering just three-place terms, so given a 20-horse field and a poor draw the each-way angle just isn't there.