Kentucky Oaks: ’Tis the season for Good Cheer…but also Muhimma

It’s quite unusual for a single trainer to have the three most likely winners of one of next season’s Classic flat races as the year draws to a close. Or rather, it is unusual in the US – The AntePoster presumes that one A P O’Brien has on various occasions held an awesome hand of this kind in both Britain and Ireland over the last few decades.

But as the last few shortening nights of the year tick down, few pundits would argue with the assertion that Kentucky-based Brad Cox looks to have a stranglehold over next year’s Kentucky Oaks with three outstanding juvenile fillies. Their names (and race records) are as follows: Immersive (1111), Good Cheer (1111), and Muhimma (111).

The latest newsflow from Cox’s barn is that all three will indeed be aimed at the "Lillies for the Fillies" race on the first Friday in May. No surprise there. In addition, Cox is looking to find different pathways for his distaff trio in order to avoid clashes before they are necessary. No surprise there either, and not just because they represent the same stable – two of these three fillies also run in the same colours of ownership (Godolphin).

So who are these fillies, how are they priced for victory in the Kentucky Oaks, and to what extent do those prices appeal?

Immersive: The reigning champ (6/1)

No one who follows top level racing in the US can fail to be unfamiliar with this daughter of Nyqist (Kentucky Derby winner) and a dam out of Bernadini (Preakness winner). Debut win (Saratoga), then straight into Grade 1 company to win the Spinaway (Saratoga), then a win in the G1 Alcibiades (Keeneland, as short-priced favourite), and finally a romp in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (Del Mar, again as short-priced favourite). Three consecutive G1 races, three wins. So is 6-1 not fair value for the Kentucky Oaks? After all, she towers above every filly she has competed against.

But therein lies the problem. Immersive has never faced the two other most exciting juvenile dirt fillies stateside – her stablemates. And one – possibly both – could prove superior come the first Friday in May, not least as they have both run faster on speed metrics (see below). More to the point, they are much more appealing wagers at the current prices. Tying down capital for five months at a short-ish price does not appeal, particularly as Breeders Cup winners have a dreadful record in the Oaks (just two proving successful in 40 years).

Good Cheer: Dominant with further upside potential (14/1)

Being a late foal and rather less advanced in her development (see below), Good Cheer didn’t make her debut until August. She was then deliberately kept away from the heat of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies in early November. But what Good Cheer has achieved over the last few months in truly impressive in its own right.

All victories apart from her debut win were earned at Churchill Downs, the venue that hosts the Kentucky Oaks in early May. And each of these races impressed on the clock as well as on the eye. Her most recent victory in the G2 Golden Rod Stakes on 30 November confirmed that this filly truly is one of the stars of the division. As in previous races, Good Cheer simply inhaled her rivals in the stretch, running right away from a field containing a number of decent types. Most notably, the runner-up was Quietside, who filled the same position behind Immersive in the G1 Alcibiades back in October. In addition to this collateral form stamp, the time of the race was arresting: Good Cheer ran the Golden Rod faster than any winner of that race since the great Rachel Alexandra took the prize some 15 years ago. This performance earned Cox’s filly a Beyer speed figure of 86 (the second occasion she had achieved this figure), which is a faster number than Immersive has ever notched up (top Beyer of 84).

But aside from the argument that Good Cheer already looks to have both the talent and the form to match the champion juvenile filly who resides just a couple of boxes away in the same barn, the progression argument is stronger for this less-garlanded daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of a Tapit mare (major stamina influence). In short, she is a lanky type who looks anything like the finished article. In the words of Michael Banahan, who looks after the racing side of Godolphin’s US operation, “she’s just a frame right now”. Trainer Brad Cox agrees and believes his stamina-laden charge will make an even better three-year-old, as well as being suited perfectly by the stretch-out to the nine-furlong Oaks trip in five months’ time. The 14/1 currently available on her proving successful in that race looks like a bad mispricing.

Muhimma: The fastest of the three? (25/1)

And then there’s Muhimma. The least experienced of the trio with three wins to her stablemates’ four apiece, this daughter of Munnings (again out of a Tapit mare) has no collateral form that can be used for comparative purposes. However, her recent stakes race (the G2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct on 7 December) at least provides a clue of how she stacks up in terms of speed: She was awarded a 90 Beyer, higher than either of her stablemates have achieved. What’s more, the Demoiselle was run over the Kentucky Oaks distance of nine furlongs, so she has no question marks to answer on that front.

The case for Muhimma rests not on what she has achieved on the form book, but the speed at which she has done it combined with the price at which she is quoted. For sure, one single speed figure on the dirt is a shaky foundation for backing a horse at a short price. In Muhimma’s case, however, the best available quote is 25/1 (as low as 12s elsewhere). And that's much too big a price for what she has achieved.

Summary

The AntePoster has been impressed with all three of these Cox fillies, but the track achievements of Good Cheer and Muhimma have been completely lost on two bookmakers (Unibet and Sky), who are now offering excessively generous prices on these two being garlanded with the "Lillies for the Fillies" on the first Friday in May. These prices look ripe for exploitation.

Recommendations:

Back Good Cheer to win the 2025 Kentucky Oaks @14/1 with Skybet or Unibet.

Back Muhimma to win the 2025 Kentucky Oaks @ 25/1 with Skybet or Unibet.

Both bets win only.