King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes: Market has wrong favourite

This year's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, scheduled to be run on Saturday 26 July, is set to be a cracker. Not that there's much chance of a big field. Most (summer 12-furlong!) King Georges are reduced to a small number of runners, mainly because there simply aren't that many top-class horses nowadays who thrive over the distances of 12 furlongs, alas. And the big beasts of this domain tend to scare the lesser types away.

It's set to be a cracker because the race is likely be a head-to-head (OK, so there will be other horses, see below) between two of the most exciting 12-furlong horses in training, Jan Brueghel (currently 5/2) and Calandagan (10/3). The pair met at Epsom in the Coronation Cup on the eve of Derby Day, where the former proved best by half a length. But The Anteposter strongly fancies the latter to reverse the form in three weeks' time, and thinks he's a knocking bet at 10/3. Why?

The AntePoster bases this view on a fourfold argument:

Rating parity: Timeform rated Jan Brueghel's last race in the Coronation Cup at 129 (vs. 128 for Calandagan in the same race). The latter was awarded 128+ for his tour de force last Sunday in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. Racing Post Ratings now have Calandagan slightly higher at 132 to Jan Brueghel's 131. In other words, the pair are almost impossible to split according to handicapping experts, whereas the betting differentiates very clearly in Jan Brueghel's favour.

That Saint-Cloud run: Calandagan's win at Saint-Cloud last weekend was a jaw-dropper on multiple levels. He had a top-class field strung out like washing on a line: the very talented Aventure – who ran Bluestocking close in both the Prix Vermeille and the Arc de Triomphe last season – was beaten 3.5 lengths, G1 winner Junko was 2.5 lengths behind her, G1 winner Iresine a further 3 lengths behind that one, and G1 winner Goliath all but pulled up. The sectionals back up the visual impression: Calandagan's closing three furlongs were run in a stunning 33.67 seconds (the penultimate zipped through in a scarely believable 10.76 seconds), yet did not come off a traditional slow French pace: the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud was run the best part of four seconds faster than two 12f handicaps for older horses on the card. In the words of At The Races expert analyst Simon Rowlands, this race "witnessed one of the performances of the season so far, anywhere." We agree. It had oodles of the wow factor, and suggested Calandagan is only now at the very peak of his powers. By contrast, the Coronation Cup came after a break for the French gelding.

Course form: Calandagan produced a stunning win on his first trip to Ascot, the King Edward VII Stakes over 12 furlongs in June 2024 (6 lengths clear of the runner-up). He was then second to Anmaat in the G1 Champion Stakes last October on soft ground that wouldn't have been ideal, having missed the break and been short of room in the final furlong for good measure. But it was still another top-class run by the French gelding. Jan Brueghel, by contrast, has never laid eyes on Ascot. That's not to say he won't handle it just fine, but tracks don't come much more different than Epsom and Ascot, and Calandagan has been there and done it, twice.

Planning clarity: Connections of Calandagan have circled the 26 July in their diaries and are looking forward to the potential rematch. Jan Brueghel is highly likely to go to Ascot. But he's not a certain runner – Ballydoyle don't do newsflow certainty with any of their horses. And they have mooted the possibility of dual Derby hero Lambourn entering this race, which slightly muddies the waters.

There will of course be other horses to beat on the day. But the betting is stuffed with horses who are grossly improbable participants for one reason or another (Sosie, Ombudsman, Almaqam, Los Angeles, Map of Stars, Merchant, Illinois). And of those horses whose connections are known to be eyeing up a possible King George tilt (Rebel's Romance, Kalpana, Lambourn, Amiloc), the point has to be made that no race these horses have ever run has been good enough – according to Timeform ratings – to match any of Calandangan's last six performances, with the exception of Lambourn's Epsom Derby win off which he regressed last time out. In short, they have mountain to climb.

The doubtful Lambourn aside, and assuming Charlie Appleby doesn't bring Ascot flop Ruling Court to the party, only two horses have a Timeform figure on their CV (interestingly, just the one in each case) with a realistic chance to beat Calandagan in the King George: Goliath, last year's brilliant winner of the race, who was beaten half a furlong by Calandagan last time out and is surely a massive doubt to defend his crown after that flop, and Jan Brueghel, courtesy of his Coronation Cup victory over the selection. In summary, we believe the King George comes down to a two-horse race, and make Calandagan the favourite over Jan Brueghel in this contest for the combination of reasons provided above. But instead it is the latter who heads up the market. We think the 10/3 on the French gelding is very good value: expect him to be 2/1 or shorter on the day...and win.

Recommendation: Back Calandagan at 10/3 with Bet365 to win the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on 26 July. Win only.