Lennox Stakes: Two outsider plays in a Goodwood betting market full of holes

The Lennox stakes, the middle leg of a trio of Group 2 races staged consecutively on the first afternoon of Glorious Goodwood, is typically one of the most competitive 7-furlong stakes races run in Europe. The five-day declaration stage is set for tomorrow morning, and The AntePoster has been analysing the prospective field with a view to identifying potential betting angles before the field inevitably slims down.

Current antepost market has more holes than an Emmental cheese

What is particularly striking about this year’s edition of the Lennox is the lack of betting appeal at the top of the market. The top six horses in the betting all come with considerable "holes" in their profiles, be it age, form, reliability or probability of running. Specifically:

Kinross: Admirable servant to connections and a standing dish in this fixture since time immemorial. But that's the problem. This lovable gelding is no less than eight years of age now, and after finishing 1st, 2nd, and 1st in the 2021, 2022, and 2023 editions, he was only 3rd last year to a winner who was giving away a 5lb weight penalty (see below, Audience). Highly likely to run well, but short enough at 4/1.

Never So Brave: Exciting newcomer to pattern class racing, having bolted up in the Buckingham Palace handicap at Royal Ascot before shining at graded stakes level by winning the G2 Summer Mile at Ascot. But a 0.75-length beating of Point Lynas wouldn’t give him a second favourite’s chance of taking this race, and more to the point connections have already indicated that they will give him time and wait for the City of York Stakes in a month's time. A resounding antepost "no" at 11/2.

Jonquil: Was simply dreadful last time out when tried over 6 furlongs in the Commonwealth Cup (9/2 second favourite, finished 13th). His claims rest on his excellent 2nd in the French 2000 Guineas back in May, but that was over a mile and these are altogether deeper waters at seven furlongs than those in which he flourished in the G3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury. Makes little appeal now he's at the front of the betting market again at 6/1.

Audience: The equine incarnation of Jekyll & Hyde – top drawer when on song, but nigh-on guaranteed to throw in the towel when he doesn't fancy it. Last of six in 2023, but won by an astonishing four lengths last year despite giving away a 5lb penalty for his earlier G1 Lockinge win. Four poor runs since (two possibly excusable given the drop to six furlongs) but he could bounce back as long as the going is good or faster. The most appealing of the top of the market at 7/1, but blowouts are his M.O. so don’t contemplate backing him each-way.

Lake Forest: Unreliable type, but was an eyecatching winner of a huge pot Down Under last autumn (Lazzat among his victims), albeit had the perfect setup there in a race that fell apart. Has disappointed on all three runs since, however, and we suspect he needs further than Goodwood’s relatively easy seven furlongs now. A wild card with possibilities at 8/1 if he gets a pace collapse to run into, but at a similar price we’d much rather play that other rogue Audience.

Noble Champion: Took a huge step forward on all previous form when waltzing way with the G3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot at 25/1. However, trainer Ed Walker is mindful that this colt disappointed on his only previous run at Goodwood and has indicated that he will be saved for the City of York in a month's time. No antepost appeal at all at 10/1 on that basis, but not out of this if connections change their mind.

A pair of outsiders catch the eye

All in all, and particularly given the nigh certainty of the size of the field being slashed at the 5-day declaration stage tomorrow, The AntePoster is keen have a swing at a couple of outsiders at big prices. The pair that stand out each-way to us at the prices are as follows:

Spy Chief: One of the least exposed horses in the field, having had just five runs. Only 7th in the July Cup over six furlongs at Newmarket last time, but beaten less than three lengths. Clearly not a six-furlong horse per John Gosden, who believes seven furlongs here will be "right up his alley". Gosden even used the phrase "we'd hope he'd have a huge chance" about this colt's Lennox bid, the words "huge chance" being very un-Gosdenesque language. As Spy Chief has improved his rating on each of his four starts since debut he could easily take another step forward back up in trip, and we expect him to run much better than his 20/1 price suggests. Intended starter per stable.

Iberian: High-class two-year-old who lost his way and had wind surgery. In-and-out since – occasionally not helping himself with tardy starts – but was impressive when doing a lot wrong in the Cammidge Trophy, and was most recently an eyecatching 5th behind Lazzat in the QEII Stakes at Royal Ascot in a race that didn't really set up for him (isolated on the wing, got a hefty bump from Flora of Bermuda when making his challenge). The AntePoster suspects there's a big race in this lightly-raced four-year-old trained by Charlie Hills, and 40/1 is a fair price to find out if it's next Tuesday. Ran very well on his only trip to Goodwood (close second in G2 Vintage Stakes, despite giving the field a 5-length start). Intended starter per stable.

Betting recommendation: In the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood on Tuesday 29 July, back the following horses each-way:

Spy Chief at 20/1 with MGMBet or Virginbet (16/1 with Coral/Ladbrokes also OK)

Iberian at 40/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Unibet or 888