Murray speedster to set fire to Commonwealth Cup at 16/1

Adrian Murray's Arizona Blaze danced pretty much every dance as a two-year-old last season. He ran nine times in total between March and November, running with credit on every single occasion. After finishing second to Whistlejacket over his second start (Curragh, soft), he beat Camille Pissarro in the G3 Marble Hill next time out (Curragh, good) before then racking up three consecutive third-placed finishes in top company: the G2 Norfolk at Royal Ascot in mid-June, the G2 Railway Stakes at the Curragh just ten days later, and the G1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh in mid-August.

Time for a mid-season break surely? Not a bit of it. Arizona Blaze was turned out again 12 days after his Phoenix run to just miss out to Diligently in a valuable sales race at York's Ebor Meeting (gave half a stone to the winner), before recording his "worst" finishing position as a juvenile in a listed race at Dundalk in October, where he came fourth but was beaten less than a length at the finish, again giving weight away to every rival in the field. He rounded off the season by flying out to California for the Breeders Cup meeting at Del Mar in November, where he made huge odds of 27/1 look farcical as he finished strongly to claim the runner-up spot in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, passing the winning post just half a length behind Magnum Force.

This son of leading first-season sire Sergei Prokofiev has been out three times already this season, with each run confirming that he has trained on and then some. His debut in a low-key listed race at Dundalk on 14 March – yet again giving weight away to every horse in the field – was impressive, as he won by more than four lengths over six furlongs, recording by far the quickest relative time on the card (almost a second faster than a high-quality handicap for older horses over the same distance). Two weeks later he finished a close third to Henry Matisse (beaten a length in total) when upped to seven furlongs for the first time, leading until the final furlong and having the field well strung out but fading in the last 100 yards and losing two places.

That race screamed of a sprinter who wanted dropping back in trip, which is precisely what his trainer did by sending him to Chantilly for a race over 5.5 furlongs on April 14. Here he not only won the G3 Prix Sigy but did so with ease, surging clear by two-and-a-half lengths and holding that advantage all the way to the line. The evidence of the visual impression was corroborated by the clock: Arizona Blaze scorched through three successive sub-11-second furlongs in the latter half of that race, which was run in a strikingly fast time when compared to the other comparable sprints on the card. Of course, the Commonwealth Cup is a fair way off and some of the horses he will face there haven't yet been seen on a racecourse this season. So there is plenty of water to flow under this bridge before the overall field picture becomes even vaguely clear. But what is clear is that most of those at the top of the betting won't be running. Quite aside from some who are not eligible to even enter (such as Storm Boy, who is a 4-year-old), many of the top ten in the betting are targeting big prizes over a mile and most will surely stay at that trip. With a wager on Arizona Blaze the punter is getting a speedster who has clearly trained on, who is targeting the race, and who has already been as impressive on the clock as he has on the eye in every race this year.

He looks a cracking bet to kickstart the Royal Ascot antepost portfolio at 16/1. Recommendation: Back Arizona Blaze at 16/1 (generally available) to win the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot on 20 June. Win only.