Nassau Stakes: Likeable mare to scratch itch at third time of asking

Today's Racing Post featurea an article on the upcoming race plans on some of the leading lights of the Andrew Balding stable. While both the headline and the article itself were focused mainly on the excellent Kalpana and her upcoming battle with some of the best middle-distance horses on the planet in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes this Saturday (for more or this, see our video preview due to be published this evening, i.e. Monday 20 June), the article also confirmed that See The Fire was in good shape ahead of her third attempt to win the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood on Thursday week.

We have backed her to scratch that itch at 6/1.

It should be pointed out that See The Fire ran poorly last time out in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Ascot. But she's underperformed before only to bounce right back, and those were very deep waters for a mare whose record has only ever really been stellar against her own sex. Indeed, in races open to males over her best distance range of between 9 and 10.5 furlongs, her form figures read 4-5-3-4-6. That's not embarrassing by any means (four of those were serious Group 1 races comprising two Prince of Wales Stakes, a Champion Stakes, and an Eclipse), but it shows her limitations in races open to the males.

By contrast, the Nassau Stakes is of course restricted to fillies and mares. And See The Fire's record against her own gender over the same distance range reads 2-1-1-3-2-1-1. Although her two previous attempts to win the Nassau have yielded only a second and a third (as per figures in bold above), we would argue strongly that these were two of her best performances to date.

In 2024 she was beaten just a neck by Opera Singer after a tardy start left her with too much of a deficit to make up ("dwelt start...headway from over 2f out, switched left over 1f out, soon challenging, kept on well, just failed" ). But note that this was in any case a stellar edition of the race, with the fillies she beat including Prix de Diane winner Sparkling Plenty, 1000 Guineas winner Elmalka, and the multiple G1 winner Emily Upjohn.

Meanwhile, last year's third place needs serious upgrading. Not because of the ground (although it's worth noting that was softer than she cares for) but because See The Fire was the big loser of a farcical flag start that was deemed to be necessary under the prevailing stormy conditions: winner Whirl was best-placed and immediately into stride, whereas Balding's filly was the big loser, left many lengths behind in last and wholly immobile when the flag fell. She ran a remarkable race under the circumstances, and we have no doubt at all that she would have been second at worst with a traditional gate start.

But while See The Fire's profile alone makes us sweet on her chances in the context of this race, there are also two other angles we find attractive.

Stable form: Park House Stables are having an outstanding season, and there is no sign of the Kingsclere-based operation losing any steam. Over the last fortnight Andrew Balding has maintained a strike rate of 20% (11 winners from 54 runners), while also sending out 14 second-placed horses as well as 7 thirds. This is clearly a string in vibrant health. That's worth contrasting in particular with the terrible form of the stable of Aidan O'Brien, trainer of market leader Diamond Necklace: from a similar sample size (48 runners in the last fortnight), O'Brien has had just 3 winners, 6 second places, and 7 thirds - despite fielding no less than 11 favourites (of which six were sent off at odds-on prices).

Field shrinkage: While See The Fire is committed to race, it is truly remarkable how few others are at this stage. We assume that the big three market rivals (Diamond Necklace, Estrange and Friendly Soul) will turn up, but it would hardly be surprising if at least one of them were to skip it. The former pair in particular would ideally prefer softer ground than is likely next week. Of the next clutch of contenders, the great majority will almost certainly not be running for one reason or other (Minnie Hauk, Blue Bolt, Thundering On, Johanna Walsh, Sparan Nua). This is a race that will cut up considerably.

In short, we think Andrew Balding's mare is one of the most likely winners of this race and make her an odds-on shot to the frame. All of which makes her an appealing each-way play for the Group 1 highlight of Day 3 on the Sussex Downs next Thursday.

Recommendation: Back See The Fire each-way at 6/1 to win the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood racecourse on Thurday 30 July. Price available with Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Skybet, BetMGM, Boylesports, Virginbet, Quinnbet, and Betway.