Pegasus World Cup: Lock this race up – though risk attached

The grandiosely titled “Pegasus World Cup” is something of a misnomer. The word “World” is the embarrassing one in the title, rather mindful of the “World Series” of another sport in the US that is essentially only contested by the locals. On the other hand, the Pegasus is without doubt one of the highest-quality horse races on the planet staged in January, and always contested by some good ‘uns. Hardly surprising given that the host nation is home to the deepest pool of racing talent on a dirt surface.

What’s interesting about this race from a betting perspective is that the bookmakers rarely take this race seriously before the year-end, and don’t scrutinize the books they put up on a regular basis. This is understandable to some extent, as much is hazy for some time after the Breeders Cup races are run, and the expectation is that things will remain that way for a while. So attention drifts elsewhere. 

But now – for perhaps 12 hours or so as this is penned on the evening of Sunday 8 December – is the time to catch the bookmakers napping for those prepared to take on the risk that goes with “haze”. Why? Because there is a huge opportunity here to take advantage of a false market, as The AntePoster does not expect the “Big Three” in the betting to run, particularly after the latest newsflow.

So what does this market look like? The key players in the betting (and their available best prices) at the time of writing are as follows:

Fierceness @ 9/4:  Will not run after news of ankle surgery as announced on 8 December.

Thorpedo Anna @ 7/2:  Resting for 60 days after Breeders Cup win. The AntePoster would be stunned if she were trained in time for this.

Sierra Leone @ 7/2:  No plans announced, but Middle Eastern targets have been mentioned (Saudi, Dubai in Feb/Mar) along with later 2025 targets. Doubtful runner.

Full Serrano @ 6/1: BC Dirt Mile winner clearly targeting this race with prep on 26 December.

Post Time @ 9/1: Possible after third place in Cigar Mile.

Newgate @ 9/1: This horse has by all accounts been retired to stud.

Locked @ 12/1: Winner of Cigar Mile is under strong consideration. Highly likely.

White Abarrio @ 12/1: 2023 BC Classic winner on comeback trail. Possible threat if back to his best, but that peak was achieved under a different trainer (Dutrow).

Senor Buscador @ 16/1: Second last year. Not in the same form since, but has excuses in last race. Probable but not definite runner.

What is striking and highly unusual here is that the first three in the market are either certain not to run or unlikely to do so (Fierceness ruled out, Thorpedo Anna almost certain to miss out, Sierra Leone doubtful).

With the above in mind, the most exciting play here by some margin is Locked, one of the most talented three-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby Trail earlier this year until sidelined through injury. Something of a forgotten horse until his powerful Cigar Mile win on 7 December, he is highly likely to contest this race and will surely start favourite if he does. At 12/1, Skybet are wildly underestimating his chance of notching his name on the trophy. If confirmed, it's not inconceivable that he starts in the region of 5/2 or even lower.

[This would be a wager with unquantifiable non-runner risk.]

Full Serrano is the new force on the US dirt scene at a mile plus, and has plenty going for him. This is his clear target, and he should start much shorter than 6/1 with Paddy Power or Skybet. A big win threat, likely to contest favouritism with Locked.

The other three serious contenders would be Post Time, White Abarrio, and Senor Buscador.  None are certain yet and all have question marks.

Recommendation: Back either or both Locked and Full Serrano as per the above, mindful of the additional non-runner risk for the former. Win only.