Prince of Wales analysis: Anatomy of a pace-making shipwreck

The AntePoster has been mulling over the exceptionally high-quality (and free!) sectional timings provided by Ascot racecourse (click here) for all races run at the Royal meet last week. They make for interesting reading generally, and none more so than in the data for the Prince of Wales Stakes, won handsomely by John and Thady Gosden's Omsbudman.

Indeed, so impressed were Timeform that they allocated this four-year-old entire – who was only fifth in the betting – a mark of 130, which makes him the highest-rated older horse in Europe on this scale. The accompanying comments are worth quoting, specifically those of Timeform handicapper Rory King:

"Having had to weave around looking for room for at least a furlong in the straight, he produced a superb turn of foot to run down and then shoot past Anmaat inside the final furlong, and the form looks well up to scratch for the race considering the runner-up – who'd been an impressive winner of the Champion Stakes at Ascot in the autumn – was readily on top of the rest."

And for good measure:

"By our reckoning it was a top-class performance from Ombudsman when factoring in how he was value for extra on top of the bare result."

Omsbudsman is evidently a very high-class horse, and The AntePoster has no idea how high this still lightly-raced son of Night of Thunder might fly. Clearly ground-versatile, he is likely to be a serious player in all the ten-furlong G1 contest for the rest of the season, and just possibly – although it would be rather doubtful on breeding – an interesting player in the Arc de Triomphe in Paris on the first Sunday in October. And yet....

Sectionals paint a tale of woe for favourite...and a golden scenario for the winner

And yet what? Well, what if we were to tell you that Ombudsman was demonstrably the slowest horse in the Prince of Wales Stakes last week? Not, obviously, on the crude metric of speed from Point A (the starting gates) to Point B (the winning post), the only one that matters where the betting outcome of a race is concerned. By that metric, he was self-evidently the fastest. But when one looks at an equally crude measure, the fastest single furlong speed notched up by each participant at any point, things look rather different.

Specifically (favourite Los Angeles and winner Ombudsman highlighted): Continuous 42.7 mph Los Angeles 41.7 mph

Royal Champion 41.1 mph

Facteur Cheval 40.7 mph

See The Fire 40.5 mph

Anmaat 40.2 mph

Map of Stars 39.9 mph

Ombudsman 39.7 mph

Combined with the sectional figures for each horse this is vital data, because it shows what kind of race the Prince of Wales Stakes was from a pace perspective. And here the data needs to be combined with race-watching: Following a relatively level break, only two horses are being furiously ridden by their riders while the others are settled into an easy rhythm: Continuous (Wayne Lordan) and Los Angeles (Ryan Moore). Both are executing the stable strategy decided for the race, namely to make it a searching pace so that stable no. 1 Los Angeles – almost certainly better over two furlongs further – might draw the sting out of the true 10-furlong types.

The problem with this kind of strategy is that the fractions have to be got just right. Too slow and the strategic purpose will not be achieved. Too fast and the horse you're setting it up for will simply (to give the technical term for such things) run out of puff. And that latter scenario is precisely what happened here. Los Angeles, dancing to an insanely fast tune dictated by stablemate Continuous, overdid things considerably and duly fell in a hole. To have finished fifth was a creditable result under such circumstances.

In hindsight, it would have been vastly preferable for Ryan Moore – a superb judge of pace and a front-running maestro, particularly around Ascot's round course – to have adopted that pace-making role himself on Los Angeles, just as he did to such good effect over the same course and distance just two days later on Trinity College in the Hampton Court. Instead, Continuous and Los Angeles set the fastest fractions for not just the first, but also for the second and third furlongs of the race. When the pace is slow, being at the forefront of affairs is smart. But when the pace is furious, with the front runner breaking 42 mph over a ten-furlong trip...that's just stoopid, as the Americans would say. With less than a third of the race having elapsed, the field was strung out like washing... with the patiently ridden Ombudsman (William Buick) and Anmaat (Jim Crowley) settled right out the back. And that pair would duly go on to finish first and second.

Does the perfect race set-up exaggerate the winner's merits?

In short, the race was set up for this pair, and Ombudsman in particular – played last of all, ironically because he was short of room rather than based on any cool-as-a-cucumber jockey decision – could hardly have had a more perfect set-up. So despite running the slowest top-speed furlong of all (and being one of only two horses not to break the 40-mph mark), he won the race. For sure, his last furlong was the fastest of any horse at that point by quite some margin. But was that reflective of his superior quality in an absolutely sense, or was it – at least in part – because he he was one of the most conservatively-ridden horses in a race that featured very fast early fractions? There is an argument to be made that Ombudsman won the Prince of Wales at least in part because he was ridden the most efficiently given the pace scenario of the race in question.

Los Angeles' second furlong was far quicker than Ombudsman's final one, which was set when most of the field was tiring. Visual impressions can deceive when a field is slowing off a furious pace. So while Ombudsman is clearly a very good horse, it's just possible that he is not quite a good as he was made to look on the Wednesday of Royal Ascot. Something to ponder when he is a very short-priced favourite for his next race, possibly as soon as Saturday week in the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown.

Give Los Angeles a pass on this occasion

Coming back to Los Angeles, The AntePoster is of the view that his 5th-place finish is in no way reflective of this horse's merits. Connections, aware of his potential limitations over the ten-furlong trip on fast ground, adopted an aggressive strategy with a view to giving him the best chance of winning, but the execution of that strategy proved little short of a disaster. Without a suicidal pace-maker (and here Wayne Lordan has to shoulder a fair portion of blame), there is a strong case for suggesting that Los Angeles would have finished much closer to the winner.

In summary, we would argue that Los Angeles should not be judged too harshly on this Prince of Wales Stakes run. Indeed, he is likely to shine brightly again in more favourable (or even neutral) circumstances. With this in mind, quotes of 20/1 for the Arc de Triomphe later in the year looks perfectly fair for this relentless galloper who would probably prefer a bit of cut underfoot. Don't write him off. Thoughts on the other runners:

Anmaat (2nd): Like Ombudsman, was given a patient, energy-saving ride that was absolutely ideal under the pace circumstances. He can clearly operate at the highest level on fast ground too, for all that he looks to be a superior horse with dig in the ground. Has a huge chance of retaining his Champion Stakes crown this October if he stays fit.

See The Fire (3rd): Ran a relatively efficient race to take a podium place, justifying her supplement fee and proving that she is not just a York horse. Given the strength of this performance against the colts, she ought to be a massive player back against her own sex. The Nassau Stakes at Goodwood in late July is the main summer aim.

Map Of Stars (4th): Based purely on the pace scenario, the Wathnan gelding proved the disappointment of the race. He was kept right out the back, which was very much the place to be under the circumstances. But he could only grind on into fourth place and finished not much more than a length ahead of Los Angeles, who endured far less favourable fractions.

Facteur Cheval (6th): Along with Los Angeles, the performance of this Ascot stalwart should be hugely upgraded. Settled not far from the leaders, he was ridden wide and hustled into the lead off the final bend by Flavien Prat, a US-based jockey with almost no Ascot experience. It was a disastrously premature move, to the evident (and very vocal) disgust of trainer Jerome Reynier. Is likely to be overpriced when the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – a race in which he habitually runs admirably – is priced up for Champions Day in October.

Royal Champion (7th): Ridden relatively foward (i.e. expended too much energy early) and like Facteur Cheval went for broke on the final bend before fading rapidly. Shouldn't be judged too harshly and would be very interesting dropped down in grade.

Continuous (8th): Faded right out of contention in the straight after overdoing the pacemaking role. Los Angeles would have been a whole lot better off without him in the race.