Prix de l’Abbaye: Makarova and Kerdos make no sense at 16/1 and 25/1 respectively

If one were to compile a list of the most difficult Group 1 markets in which to have an antepost bet in Europe, the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp on Arc weekend would be right at the top of the list. For one thing there is a perceived draw bias, part of which is very real, although more complex than most observers think (see below).  But it’s true that the field congregates toward the near rail, which is where the horses drawn low start off.  Being extremely high – particularly in a “high teen” stall – is statistically not a good place to be. And as with all races, the draw is not known until a few days before the start.  Not a great basis for antepost betting.

But Unibet have taken quite a risk with their bizarre-looking early book, in which the first five in the betting are either uncertain participants or in two cases almost certain non-runners (Asfoora and Big Evs). Unibet market leaders Bradsell and Believing have the Abbaye only as a “possible” on their agenda, with the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint in California (where fast ground is more or less guaranteed and the purse is much greater) also on their radar. Meanwhile, Regional was withdrawn from the July Cup on ground designated good due to the trainer’s concerns about too much give. Paris in October therefore looks an unlikely target.

All of which makes Unibet’s pricing of Makarova (16/1) very attractive. This race will be her final outing before the breeding shed beckons, but she is in the form of her life, quite literally: Her third place in the Group 1 Flying Five at The Curragh last time was the best form figure she has recorded. Moreover, she was beaten just two lengths in fifth in the Abbaye last year from the very worst of the draw (stall 17 out of 17) and is a better horse now. Crucially, soft ground is just fine. And the icing on the cake is Ed Walker’s confirmation in The Weekender two days ago that this is her target.

Makarova / Copyright Ed Walker Racing Limited

Also worth a wager in Unibet’s book given his lack of soft ground concerns is Kerdos (25/1). Fourth in the Flying Five this year, in keeping with his improved profile as an older sprinter, he too is a better horse than this time last year when he was eighth in the Abbaye, with a compromised trip from the rail, yet ultimately beaten just over two lengths.

True, the Abbaye can be a race of compromised trips and ill luck in running. But the much-cited argument that a low draw is essential other than with a front runner is not borne out by the data: Analysis of the last ten runnings (discounting the two editions at Chantilly during the Longchamp revamp) reveals that winners can come from high single figures as well as low double-digits (stall 12 has launched the victor in two of the last ten runnings, for example, with neither horse being a front-running type, and 13 and 14 have both been successful). For sure, to be hung out wide in the high teens (average field size in last ten years is 16.7, half of the runnings have had 18 runners) is a clear negative. But these two high-quality sprinters are quoted at 16/1 and 25/1 respectively.  At these prices, draw risk is worth courting.

Published 15:21 20/09/2024