Prix de la Foret: Why is this class operator ranked fifth in the betting?

It’s a funny old world when multiple winners of Group races who are in raging form – and housed in the stable of legendary French trainer André Fabre to boot – are neglected in the betting in the run-up to Arc weekend at Longchamp.

This phenomenon can be found in the market for the Arc de Triomphe market itself, where Mqse de Sevigne is still available at 25/1 in the betting (recommended at 33/1, see AntePoster article of September 8), despite having won her last five Group 1 races and being considered by Fabre to have a similar chance to stablemate Sosie – who just happens to be the 9/2 favourite for the same race. But that’s another story. More to the point, Paddy Power (and co-owned Betfair Sportsbook with the same trading team) are at it again in the Prix de la Foret, which will be run on the same day. Step forward Tribalist, Group 1 winner of the Prix du Moulin earlier this month, who is listed as fifth favourite in the betting at 8/1.

Quite aside from the fact that one of the horses ahead of him in the betting – Lazzat – will certainly not be running, and another (Audience) is a doubt on ground considerations, the main point to focus on here is Tribalist’s standout form, which shouldn’t be obscured by the controversy over his last race. The generally accepted view of the Moulin is that Tribalist “nicked it”, i.e. was given too much rope on an easy lead, thereby setting fractions that made it impossible for those behind to get to his hind quarters. Analysis of the sectionals bear out that theory to a certain extent. Some horses dawdled excessively, and this hugely compromised their chance of winning. But The AntePoster likes to consider two other factors when sectionals are brought into the argument: relative times to other races on the card, and the evidence of the naked eye (the latter being admittedly an unscientific metric).

On the former point, let’s be clear that the Moulin was run in a fast time, which is not possible in races run on a crawl-crawl-sprint basis (where leaders typically have a massive advantage). The two later races on the card over a mile (which were run in a far slower time) are not comparable due to deterioration of the ground (reclassified 45 minutes after the Moulin), but earlier races on the card at similar distances – including a high-class Group 3 – are comparable, and were run in a far slower relative time.  Meanwhile, on that oh-so-subjective “eye” test, it is apparent that between the three and two-furlong markers most of the horses trailing in Tribalist’s wake were in trouble, i.e. being pushed along – without making any inroads into the deficit – well before Mickael Barzalona went for the whip on the leader.

Now combine this with Tribalist’s record in his last ten races when omitting fast-ground experiences (including the disastrous experiment of a drop to six furlongs on turf that was in no way “good to soft” in July, as well as a fast-ground flop in Hong Kong), and one is left with the following figures: 121113111.  For good measure, the haul of victories in that cluster includes three Group 3s, two Group 2s, and of course the Group 1 Moulin. This is some horse when he gets his conditions.

There are reasons why Tribalist might not win the Moulin, aside from finding one better. The drop to seven furlongs in particular will be a red flag for many (for all that his running pattern is generally to lose momentum in the final furlong, suggesting a mile is as far as he wants). He might be harried for the lead, particularly if Audience runs.  Another negative would be fast going, but with the volume of rain falling on Paris over the next 72 hours, the ground will have an awful lot of drying out to do next week, for which the meteorological picture is in any case not yet clear.

The overarching point, however, is that the price of 8/1 does not do justice to the ability or chances of this top-class operator.  A particularly attractive angle for those of a trading persuasion is the current price on offer relative to the price he is likely to start:  Assuming Tribalist remains injury-free for the next 11 days, backers who play the exchanges should be able to lock in a profit before the horses enter the gates, as this fellow deserves to be – and in all likelihood will be – vying for co-favouritism with the admirable but ageing 7-furlong specialist Kinross.