Prix Jacques Le Marois: Take a flyer on talented Ridari at 33/1

It would be difficult to imagine a more confusing market than the one currently priced up by Unibet, Paddy Power and Skybet for the big showpiece of the Deauville summer season, run over a mile in mid-August. For the last few decades, this race has been formally known (to include the longstanding sponsor) as the Prix du Haras de Fresnay-le-Buffard Jacques Le Marois. Quite the mouthful. We'll call it the JLM from here on (no disrespect intended to the honourable aristocrat Jacques Le Marois who presided over Deauville's rise to become a key French horse racing venue over a century ago).

The aforementioned three bookmakers list a good 50 or so horses for this year's edition of the JLM, which is just six days away. But the vast majority of these are not intended runners, and the field will be whittled down dramatically when the first batch of withdrawals (FR:"forfaits") become apparent at the first of this week's declaration stage tomorrow (Tuesday 11 August).

The bookmakers have already been caught napping with the mispricings of The Lion In Winter (opened at 20/1, now 4/1 second favourite) and Lead Artist (cut from 33/1 to 10/1). Among all the uncertainty over who might run and the corresponding certainty of numerous entries being withdrawn, The AntePoster believes a small each-way interest is called for on the late Aga Khan colours of Ridari, currently 33/1, who is an intended runner in the race.

Cards on the table: Ridari has no chance of winning this race on his last-time out third in the Prix Messidor (one mile, soft ground) when co-favourite with the winner Quddwah but almost three lengths adrift of that horse at the line. And probably not on his sixth place in the Prix du Jockey Club behind Camille Pissarro, although it should be noted he had a poor draw and was beaten less than two lengths in that race.

But Ridari was very eye-catching when fifth behind Henri Matisse in the French 2000 Guineas, snatched up shortly before the line having made up a large amount of ground. He was beaten 1.5 lengths, but a decent proportion of the deficit was lost as a result of that incident. Which makes him a seriously talented colt. This horse looks like a natural fast-ground miler, which explains why he was not seen to best advantage last time out on easier going (when he was also too keen and too far back in the field, a bad combination), and may well have been stretched for stamina in his otherwise decent Jockey Club run. Sunday's JLM will see Ridari run over a straight mile on fast ground for the first time in his life. We like this set-up. He has pleased connections in his recent work, and in training on Mikel Delzangles's gallops has been showing signs (!) of settling better than earlier in the season. All in all, there are reasons enough to think that he is primed to run another big race at Deauville on Sunday.

Of course, we might be wrong on all this. It's possible that this headstrong colt will not do himself justice and prove unable to return to the level of his French Guineas form – which he will need to do if he is to stand a chance of placing here. But we think 33/1 is a very fair price for the risk assumed, and are playing him each-way accordingly in a field that is likely to cut up hugely.

Recommendation: Back Ridari each-way at 33/1 to win the Prix Jacques Le Marois at Deauville with Paddy Power or Skybet.