Rockfel Stakes: Awaken from your overnight slumber for this 14/1 shot

This a flash article due to the brief window of opportunity, which will close at 0800 on Wednesday when 48-hour declarations for Friday start to come in.

The AntePoster doesn't know how many fillies will contest the G2 Rockfel Stakes over seven furlongs at Newmarket this Friday, but it look like it will be a great deal fewer than in the antepost market. No less than 16 are entered for the race, but only six have a jockey booked in, and there are doubts over all those at the top of the market:

Race favourite Touleen is on record as being a doubt (has the option of stepping up to the Fillies Mile two weeks later, and will do one or other). We imagine she will take this weaker option but she might not;

Second favourite Diamond Necklace is also in the Fillies Mile and has been very weak in the market today Wednesday (drifting from 5/2 to 5/1). This is usually indicative of a non-runner for Ballydoyle;

Meanwhile, fourth favourite The Prettiest Star is also in the Cheveley Park, and trainer Ed Walker has stated in The Weekender that he too is leaning towards that race. Finally, connections of fifth favourite Fitzella are leaning towards the Cheveley Park Stakes the day after the Rockfel.

This looks like a must-play antepost market, and we like the Highclere filly Awaken at 14/1 in this context as it sounds like she is one the most likely runners.

It's a pretty simple rationale:

• Ran a blinder to finisher 2nd in the Albany at Ascot behind Venetian Sun, who went on to beat Gstaad in the G1 Prix Morny.
  

• At the time, she didn't look overly impressive when winning her next start at Leicester at 1/12, but it now turns out the only horse who came near her (Catching The Moon) is a good 'un: She won both her next starts, including a Group 3 only this weekend just past.
  

• Ran poorly last time, but that was on soft ground at Salisbury, where she was given a strange, ground-wasting ride in the first two furlongs (race bears rewatching). This race is probably best ignored.

  
  

We suspect this filly has more to give and like the step up to seven furlongs on her preferred fast ground. She is close to top-rated (Timeform, RPRs) in a market in which multiple defections are assured, in all likelihood including some of the leading names.

There is a risk after a bad run that Awaken is not as good as she looked at Ascot, but we see this is more than built into the price: The standout 14/1 offered by William Hill is a very generous risk/reward profile in a market that looks like it might cut up dramatically.

The chance of placing looks simply huge if she runs to anything like her best, so we'll take the double risk of the each-way angle. We fully understand that many will prefer to play this win only.

Recommendation: Back Awaken each-way at 14/1 with William Hill to win the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket on 26 September. 12/1 (Unibet, BetMGM) would be a minimum play.