Royal Ascot: Japan to crash Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee party

Looking through the antepost field for the six-furlong Group 1 sprint on the Saturday of Royal Ascot – a race that has had an insane four name changes this century (we’ll just call it the “Jubilee” from here on in) – it’s difficult not to conclude that that this contest looks ripe for export.

Put simply, the English and Irish sprinters are not a great bunch and haven’t been for a while now. This perhaps explains why Khaadem (25/1) has won the last two runnings of the Jubilee at 80/1 and 14/1. He’s a big price to do it again, and there wouldn’t be worse outsiders at a price like that if it rides fast (prerequisite). Of the Brits at the top of the market, Believing (10/1) and Kind of Blue (8/1) could both have more upside and are already high-class types, but while the former would be a proper win threat she's not a certain runner (has the King Charles III on the Tuesday as alternative option, might not double up like last year), while the latter’s peak effort (a neck win over Swingalong over C&D on Champions Day last October) is not form to have rival trainers quailing.

The Sheikh Obaid pair Inisherin and Elite Status (both 12/1) are both interesting but come with questions marks; we will hopefully find out more about their wellbeing in the Duke of York Stakes next week. Inisherin looked special in the Commonwealth Cup – C&D box ticked, and it’s worth noting there were three subsequent G1 winners in behind – but was disappointing in the July Cup and simply dreadful in the Haydock Sprint Cup, both times as favourite. He might come back to his best, so there would be worse bets than a speculative win-only play on him. Elite Status has shone brightly on a couple of occasions and may yet emerge as a force at the top level, but the fact remains that he has only ever won in G3 company. 

It’s difficult to work up a great of enthusiasm for the longer-priced locals. Regional (14/1) is surely going to prioritize the Tuesday’s King Charles III in which he ran so well last year, while Montassib (16/1) is seven and reliant on dig in the ground to show his best (although surely it will rain at some point in this country). Meanwhile Night Raider (16/1) has looked like a monster on the all-weather but has form figures of 005 on the green stuff. Still, trainer retains the faith and he was very good indeed last time out at Newcastle. Flora of Bermuda is a likeable mare but is so far only a G3 winner whose career best was a close-up third on soft ground behind Kind of Blue on Champions Day, while the otherwise promising Jasour lost the plot badly in the latter half of last season.

Beware the French raiders

One possible source of victory could be the nearest neighbour of them all, as the French bring a number of intriguing entrants. Chief among these is Lazzat, who is your Jubilee antepost (co-)favourite at 6/1. Figure gurus and clockwatchers have been purring over his last time-out effort at Chantilly, where he broke 68 seconds for six furlongs and left overmatched rivals trailing in his wake. He could be up to this task, as that’s the second time he’s put in a huge effort in his two outings over less than seven furlongs (was a facile winner of a rather weak G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville over 6.5 furlongs last August). However, he looks short enough six weeks out from the race – he’s never faced a field of sprinters like this before, and this will be his first trip to Britain (has been beaten on both other foreign forays, though did run very well Down Under in the Everest).

Topgear (16/1) definitely shouldn’t be dismissed from calculations with his back-end form from last year. His thrashing of ten decent rivals in the G2 Challenge Stakes at Newmarket last October was one of the performances of the season at that level and puts him right in the mix. He wouldn’t be a cast-iron certainty to make this race, however (“we are potentially looking at the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, the main target is the Prix Maurice de Gheest”). This is a space to watch carefully: The AntePoster would definitely play if this kind of price were available following confirmation of his participation.

Beauvatier (20/1) is much less appealing. Perhaps his reinvention as a sprinter may reap dividends, but he has never lived up to his 2-year-old promise, and his form figures since his last victory as a juvenile in September 2023 read 3203334, which doesn’t exactly inspire. By contrast, Sajjir (33/1) could be quite the wild card for Andre Fabre. Strictly on the form book, he has no chance on his narrow last-time-out victory in the G3 Abernant from Grand Grey and Lethal Levi. But his last two victories point to an upward trajectory and Ascot’s stiff six furlongs looks a good fit for this four-year-old son of Make Believe, who may well have more upside.

Not Australia, but Hong Kong by proxy

Many a decent sprinter to have come over to Royal Ascot from Australia has proven to be different class. But that’s truer of the 5-furlong sprint on the opening day (King Charles III Stakes) than it is of the Jubilee on the closing day. In any case, this year’s sole sprint representative from Australia, Storm Boy (6/1 co-favourite), leaves The AntePoster cold. His form back home is hardly standout, he may opt for the King Charles III Stakes anyhow, and the transfer of a sprinter to Aidan O’Brien doesn’t really set the pulse racing.

Hong Kong, a global powerhouse of sprint racing on turf, has no entry in this race as per usual. They don’t do Royal Ascot. This is a real shame, as there is no doubt in most observers’ minds that Ka Ying Rising, who has started odds-on for his last ten races and delivered form figures of 1111111111, is the best turf horse on the planet right now (if you haven’t seen him do his stuff, get up those videos but put a cushion on the floor to avoid breaking your jaw). But that horse does provide the key to the value in this race, because his two-time victim Satono Reve from Japan has just landed on these shores in preparation for this very race. And he’s the clear pick at 10/1.

Satono Reve is one of those rare cases of significant improvement at the age of six. He emerged as a decent sprinter in his native Japan last year, winning three races in succession (a listed race and then two G3s). But he didn’t look good in September when managing only seventh in the G1 Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama, even allowing for a bad draw. Perhaps not up to that level?

His three runs since suggest otherwise. He travelled to Hong Kong for the first time in December to take on the mighty Ka Ying Rising in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint, where he was beaten just three quarters of a length in third. He then reappeared in the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen at Chukyo where he won cosily, reversing form with a host of rivals from the Nakayama sprint. And then back to Sha Tin take on Ka Ying Rising again in the G1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize in late April. He was well beaten by that superstar on this occasion, to the tune of 2.75 lengths, but finished powerfully to take second ahead of the classy Helios Express, the remainder well beaten. That form looks at least as strong as anything that can be mustered by his rivals here.

In short, Satono Reve is a sprinter at the top of his game who has been taking on a monster. With winning form over a mile, the stamina test of the Jubilee looks made for this closer. He is off the radar at the moment, as many Euro-centric punters and bookmakers are unfamiliar with the racing scene in the Far East, but that narrative will change as Royal Ascot approaches. Expect the Ka Ying Rising form to attract plenty of attention and his price to shorten accordingly.

Recommendation: Back Satono Reve at 10/1 with William Hill, 888, BetVictor or MGMBet. Win only.