Saudi Cup 2025: Secret of eternal youth lost on Paddy Power

There seems little doubt that this year’s Breeders Cup Classic, run on 2 November, was the deepest middle-distance race on dirt run anywhere in the world in 2024. It brought together the best horses from the two dirt superpowers, the US and Japan, and the first three home – Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Forever Young – can reasonably be considered among the best middle-distance dirt horses on the planet. Of the leading global players on this surface, only Dubai World Cup winner Laurel River was missing.

The next big “route” dirt race (as the Americans refer to middle-distance races) will be the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream on 25 January. That won’t be a strong field, with all of the horses cited above set to skip it. The next big prize is the squillion-dollar Saudi Cup in Riyadh, scheduled for 22 February, which will inevitably attract a full international field. And with Classic runner-up Fierceness certain to skip this race and Sierra Leone and Laurel River only “maybes”, there’s a cracking bet to be had here.

Japan’s Forever Young has raced eight times and been beaten only twice, He was third in the Kentucky Derby, beaten just a nose and a short head, after an extraordinarily troubled trip (dwelt at start, bumped and pushed back, very wide into home straight, crowded and bumped again by winner in final two furlongs). He was then third again in the Classic behind Sierra Leone, where Del Mar's short straight did not play to his strengths. That rival may or may not turn up in Riyadh. But this time around – if Sierra Leone turns up – he will be playing away, having never travelled outside of the US. Trainer Chad Brown doesn’t have a track record worthy of note when it comes to raids on foreign shores. By contrast, Yoshito Yahagi has a stunning strike rate when sending horses abroad, most notably in the Middle East. And for good measure, Forever Young has already been to Saudi and won.

The other obvious threat, if he turns up, would be Laurel River, brilliant winner of last year’s Dubai World Cup. But that performance came after two prep runs, and Bhupat Seemar’s six-year-old has not been seen on a racetrack since. He might turn up, and might turn in another monster performance. But that’s a “double might”, so there’s good reason to be sceptical. A final “wild card” in this race is the potential appearance of Hong Kong’s Romantic Warrior, whose connections have a Middle Eastern campaign in mind that could take in this race. But that horse has never even raced on a synthetic surface, let alone dirt.  And his prep run in the Middle East – the Jebel Hatta in Dubai – will be on turf. It won’t answer the surface doubts.

Of the big dirt beasts, Forever Young is the only one firmly pointed to Riyadh for the last Saturday in February. What’s more, Yahagi admitted to his horse being “only 80% fit” for his prep-race victory in Japan last week, yet on official figures it ranked right up there with his best efforts. There is a persuasive logic behind connections’ belief that the best is yet to come.

But as always, the single most important reason to back Forever Young is the price.  He is now chalked up at between 5/2 and 4/1 with most of the bookmakers that are pricing this race up, which looks a fair sort of range six weeks out. By contrast, the (related) bookmakers Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook have yet to react to the Japanese star’s latest race and other newsflow regarding possible competitors. For example, they still have Fierceness listed in their book, despite that horse having just undergone surgery. The 7/1 they currently offer on Forever Young will not last long.

Recommendation: Back Forever Young to win the Saudi Cup @7/1 with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook. Win and lay off the preferred strategy, but an each-way play is another possible angle as the chances of him not placing look extremely remote as long as he avoids injury.