Saudi Cup 2025 - final field analysis
- The AntePoster (H)
- Feb 21
- 11 min read
Updated: Feb 22
For horse-by-horse analysis, scroll down. Summary and recommendation can be found right at the bottom of the page.
(bracketed figure before horse's name is post position)
(5) Forever Young (Yahagi / Sakai) | Last 5 runs: 13131 | Rating: 121
Profile Stellar performer in the world of dirt racing over the last year or so, with six wins from eight runs since his debut in November 2023, including wins in marquee races both here (Saudi Derby) and in Meydan (UAE Derby) last spring. Perhaps even more impressive in the context of this field are his two losses, which comprise a very close third in the Kentucky Derby last May (beaten a short head; he was most observers’ idea of the best horse in the race after a poor trip) and the same position in the Breeders Cup Classic at Del Mar in November, behind top US dirt horses Sierra Leone and Fierceness. Logical favourite who should have the measure of the other dirt horses, but he faces a serious challenge from the turf world here and has drawn horribly wide.
Betting observations The AntePoster loved him when he was 7/1 and recommended him as a bet accordingly six weeks ago. Still has a good chance, but 15/8 is short enough now he has drawn the widest gate.
(9) Romantic Warrior (Shum / McDonald) | Last 5 runs: 1111-1 | Rating: 125
Profile The highest-earning racehorse of all time. Unbeaten in last eight runs (sevens G1s and a Group 2), which include not just back-to-back Hong Kong Cups but also a Cox Plate in Australia against that country’s leading 10-furlong performers, a Yasuda Kinen in Japan against the local leading milers, and an impressive win last time out in Dubai’s Jebel Hatta, where he didn’t have much to beat but set a track record for the 9-furlong distance. Possessing class, pace, stamina, and a relentless desire to win, this complete racehorse would be heavily odds-on to win this race... if it were on turf. But instead this is his first start on dirt, a surface that he has yet to race on, unlike most of his rivals. True, Saudi dirt appears to play more friendly to turf horses – the likes of Mishriff and Panthalassa have taken two of the five runnings of this race, after all – but it’s still a question mark. But there are few other question marks, and he drew a good gate post.
Betting observations
Surface a slight question mark, but everything else suggests he has a big chance of maintaining his winning streak at the highest level. With Forever Young drawn widest of all, this horse should probably be favourite – but isn’t.
(8) Rattle N Roll (McPeek / Rosario) | Last 5 runs: 6431-1 | Rating: 115
Profile Sole US representative in this race, which catches the eye as the Americans have won two of the five runnings. This one has had 21 runs, winning nine, but other than a juvenile G1 victory (against a field that in hindsight looks desperately poor) he has been beaten on all three tries at Grade 1 level, heavily so in the stronger of those races. On the other hand, he has been in the form of his life recently – impressive when taking the G2 Clark stakes in November and a facile winner of the G3 qualifier for this race (Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup) over course and distance in late January. That was a slow time, but he’ll be coming late and if things heat up on the front end it’s not impossible he could “do an Emblem Road” (2022 winner). Drawn in mid-pack. Betting observations Not unappealing as a prospect here, but just too short: We would want mid-teen double figures to bet on this horse, who will have to come from way back to win this.
(4) Facteur Cheval (Reynier / Barzalona) | Last 5 runs: 1632-3 | Rating: 116
Profile
Poor win ratio since juvenile days (only two wins from last eleven starts) but there’s no doubting this one’s ability to run to a rarified level – on turf at least. Particularly eye-catching are his two runner-up placings in Ascot’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (October 2023 and 2024) and his last-gasp win in the Dubai Turf at Meydan last March. His first-ever start on dirt four weeks ago looks underwhelming on the face of it (third behind Walk of Stars in the G1 Al Maktoum challenge at Meydan), but he was stuck behind the wall of horses taking kickback for much of the race. The kickback here is nothing like as brutal, and he should strip fitter for that run. Intriguing contender, though has drawn wide so will need to work out a trip.
Betting observations
Ran well on his first try on dirt in Dubai last month, but was well beaten by Walk Of Stars. Has plenty of back class and could run well, but with his very wide draw he is only a neutral betting proposition.
(10) Ushba Tesoro (Takagi / Sugawara) | Last 5 runs: 22204- | Rating: 119
Profile
A “deep closer” and top-class operator at his best, never more so than when shipped to the Middle East, where his record looks truly stellar: winner of the 2023 Dubai World Cup at Meydan by almost three lengths, beaten just a head in this race last year by Senor Buscador, and runner-up again (albeit beat more than eight lengths) to the freakish Laurel River at the last year’s Dubai World Cup last March. Any one of those runs commands attention but the three together theoretically make him a one of the leading candidates in this field. However, he is now eight years old, and with no win on his CV since December 2023 (a G1 in his native Japan with no international competition) there are grounds for scepticism over his ability to recapture his (excellent) best. Drew the inside post, so will have to work his way through the field somehow.
Betting observations
Big threat if he repeats any of his Middle Eastern performances of 2023 and 2024, but we suspect he’s on the downgrade and don’t want him at this price.
(12) Walk Of Stars (Seemar / O’Shea) | Last 5 runs: 2221-1 | Rating: 117
Profile
Gorgeously bred but didn’t work out as a top-level prospect for Godolphin/Charlie Appleby in the UK and was duly sold in December 2023 to a Middle Eastern owner. Not for the first time, new trainer Bhupat Seemar has taken this horse to a new level: Blitzed the field in a listed race at Meydan in late December 2024 before then dominating the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge over 9.5 furlongs over the same course just four weeks ago. Different course here, and no guarantee that Meydan dirt form will transfer, but the defection of front-running Laurel River has opened up the possibility that this improver could lead this field for a very long way. Good draw, dangerous outsider for a trainer who is unfathomably good right now.
Betting observations
The withdrawal of Laurel River gives this front runner a clear chance of leading the field from gate to wire. Looks a good each-way bet at the prices.
(13) Wilson Tesoro (Takagi / Kawada) | Last 5 runs: 22122- | Rating: 117
Profile
One of Japan’s top dirt horses over the last few years with a win record of eight from 21. Has only won one of his last ten races, but has run some of his best-ever performances in that losing streak, including a narrow defeat to Ushba Tesoro in the 2023 Tokyo Daishoten at Ohi in December 2023, an even narrower defeat to the classy Lemon Pop in the Champions Cup at Chukyo racecourse a year later, and a 1.75-length second to Forever Young in the 2024 Tokyo Daishoten just eight weeks ago. That last piece of form makes him a player here, but it’s mildly concerning that he has only travelled abroad once and been soundly beaten (last March’s Dubai World Cup, finished fourth but a good five lengths behind third-placed Ushba Tesoro). Still, this is a different track and a different day, so he is far from impossible for a place, and appeals as one of the stronger outsiders. Drawn nicely in 4.
Betting observations
Followers of The AntePoster on X (former Twitter) will have availed themselves of the 40/1 (four places) available for a short period yesterday evening. Now considerably shorter, but still interesting.
(7) Ramjet (Sasaki / Miura) | Last 5 runs: 11143- | Rating: 116
Profile
Has had just six runs but caught the eye with a string of victories in the first half of 2024, which almost saw him qualify for a Kentucky Derby run. Rested over the summer and returned to be well beaten behind Forever Young in Japan Dirt Classic in early October, but then narrowed the gap to that rival to just two lengths in the Tokyo Daishoten at the end of the year. With his conqueror in those two races the 15/8 favourite for this contest, this newly-turned 4-year-old is not entirely ruled out for a place. Drawn fairly wide but not excessively so.
Betting observations
Doesn’t appeal as a likely winner, but fairly priced as an each-way prospect.
(3) El Kodigo (Meshref / Calvente) | Last 5 runs: 1112-1 | Rating: 117
Profile
Multiple G1 winner in his native Argentina, with his last six runs at that level reading 211121. However, there is good reason to doubt that this Argentinian form – recorded on both turf and dirt – will match up to that of the stellar field he encounters here. For good measure, his last four wins have been over 12 furlongs, a trip far longer than this test of speed over just nine. Closely matched with Intense For Me on form in the G1 Gran Premio Carlos Pellegrini Internacional in mid-December, but this test could well suit that rival better. Strong suspicion that this South American raider is tilting at windmills. Drew very wide.
Betting observations
The AntePoster believe both this horse and his Argentinian compatriot are overmatched in this field, as well as being too short in the betting. There are several more appealing outsiders.
(1) Al Musmak (Aldaihani / Aldaham) | Last 5 runs: 7716-1 | Rating: 112
Profile
Decent sort for Roger Varian in the UK and look destined for higher things after his second to high-class Ghostwriter in the Royal Lodge as a 2-year-old in September 2023. However, his 3-year-old season didn’t really work out, with his only impressive performance being a victory in a listed race at Newmarket over good to soft ground last summer. Was entrusted to a new trainer and switched to the Middle East at the end of 2024, and ran out an easy winner (by almost five lengths) of a 20-horse conditions race in early January at Jebel Ali. That told us he was capable of acting on dirt, but hardly burnished his credentials for a test like this. Something of a wild card here, not least as the trainer has come across in media events as wildly bullish (“The race will be between Romantic Warrior and Al Musmak, I’m sure”). Drawn fairly wide in post 10.
Betting observations
On paper this horse has little chance, but there’s a sneaking suspicion he might be better than he was able to show in his three-year-old season. A career-best just could be enough to grab a podium place, but we don’t quite see it.
(11) Wait To Excel (Aldaihani / Alfouraidi) | Last 5 runs: 141-32 | Rating: 108
Profile
Started life under the care of James Tate in Britain, where he developed into a decent handicapper in 2022. Off the track for a year with injuries, before then returning to the racetrack for a single run (flopped) in July 2023. Was then absent for another 17 months before reappearing in the Middle East under the stewardship of Thamer Aldaihani. Three runs in quick succession recently, so at least he appears to be sound now, but the pick of those (runner-up but beaten almost five lengths by Rattle n Roll in the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup) suggests he has an awful lot more to find in this company. Drawn mid-pack.
Betting observations
Makes no appeal as a betting proposition. We cannot see how he can reverse form with Rattle N Roll, and there are many other rivals here who are as good as or indeed better than that one.
(2) Defunded (Meshref / Fresu) | Last 5 runs: 2-775-1 | Rating: 110
Profile
Formerly a high-class type for leading Californian trainer Bob Baffert, winning two Grade 1s (including over this trip against Country Grammer, who won the Dubai World Cup in March 2022 and was only narrowly beaten in this race in January 2023) and finishing a good second in the 2023 Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream. However, his form tailed off under Baffert later that year, and there was little sign of a revival following his move to the stable of Abdulaziz Mishref in the Middle East in January 2024. Did easily win a conditions race over this course and distance in his most recent start just over a month ago, but given the (poor) quality of the opposition he faced there it would be fanciful to interpret that as a return to peak form. On his best runs of old he’d threaten for a podium place, but it’s highly doubtful he can recapture that. Wide draw no help.
Betting observations
There are a number of races on this horse’s CV that would see him competitive for a podium place here. Unfortunately, they are all some way back in the rear-view mirror. We would throw a few pennies at him each-way if he were to drift to 3 figures.
(6) Intense For Me (Meshref / Ospina) | Last 5 runs: 12331- | Rating: 117
Profile
Another raider to parachute in from Argentina. Looks closely matched with El Kodigo, who had his measure (by 1.75 lengths) over 12 furlongs in early November, before that form was reversed (Intense For Me winning by a head) in the G1 Gran Premio Carlos Pellegrini Internacional over the same trip in late December. Doubtful if the cut back to nine furlongs does either of these horses a favour, and surely this one has to run a career-best by quite some way to threaten the podium places, but does have a potentially good draw in 2 if he can make use of it.
Betting observations
See comments for El Kodigo. No betting appeal.
(14) Wootton’sun (Al Kahtani / Ferreira) | Last 5 runs: 1921-3 | Rating: 108
Profile
Almost identical profile to Wait to Excel but without the injuries: Developed into a decent handicapper under Richard Fahey in 2022 and 2023 before being sold to the Middle East just over a year ago. Has run three times in Saudi since the local season began, picking up a listed race in mid-December before then finishing third in the “Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup” four weeks ago, where he was five lengths behind Rattle n Roll but just a neck behind Wait to Excel. Very difficult to see how he can be competitive in this field, though at least he has a good draw in 5.
Betting observations
Like Wait to Excel, with whom he is closely matched on form, this horse holds no betting appeal.
(NON-RUNNER)
Scotland Yard
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATION
Two horses dominate this fascinating contest, and at the prices it's Romantic Warrior (11/4, Skybet) that appeals more of the big two. However, the suggested play on this race is WALK OF STARS to take them gate to wire at 18/1 (William Hill, three-place terms, 14/1 best price for four-place terms). Wilson Tesoro has a decent each-way shout at 25/1 (Bet365, four place terms).
Comments