Saudi Cup Night: Time for Love and Roses

Earlier in the week we posted a flash article urging readers to engage with Cyclone State in the Saudi Derby on 22 February, as Paddy Power had failed to react to the newsflow that probable favourite Getaway Car would not be flying out to Saudi Arabia. With the updating of likely final fields by the JCSA, two other glaring mispricings for next weekend's racing in Riyadh stand out with the same bookmaker. Saudi Derby: In the last few days, two other horses who were prominent in the betting have been removed from this race: Antelope Canyon (Ireland/Aidan O'Brien) and Happy Man (Japan/Ryo Terashima). Once again, Paddy Power have failed to pick this up. This makes a play on Myriad Love, the leading Japanese contender for the race, look like a standout opportunity at 5/1 ( between 5-2 and 3-1 elsewhere). She is likely to be Cyclone State's main rival, and appeals as an each-way play. Cyclone State, as low as 15/8 with the bookmakers who have the field correctly listed, is still a decent price at 3/1 as the most likely winner, but followers of The AntePoster are sitting on 5/1 so no need to go back in. Golden Vekoma (5/1) appears to be the only other credible contender. 1351 Turf Sprint: While you have to admire/despair at (delete as appropriate) the naming of a race by the bizarre number of metres it is run over (6.71 furlongs for those interested), what sticks out about this year's edition of this G2 turf race is the eyebrow-raising decision by the same trading team to price up Japan's Ten Happy Rose at 16/1. This race is rarely contested by true Group 1 types, but this mare has run superbly in the last two G1s she has contested: She ran out the stunning winner of the Victorial Mile at Toyko racecourse last May, and was then a valiant fourth (beaten just 1.5 lengths) in the Breeders Cup Mile at Del Mar in November. In the latter race, she actually surged into the lead 1.5 furlongs out before being caught in the last 50 yards, so there's good reason to think she can handle this shorter trip. This is essentially a class drop, and she's just too classy to be such a huge price – Ladbrokes/ Coral go 5/1 and William Hill 6/1 for example – and cannot possibly start at anything close to the 16s offered by Paddy Power. That said, with a few clunkers on her CV she's much more appealing as a win only (back-and-lay) bet rather than an each-way play. Recommendation: Back Myriad Love each-way at 5/1 with Paddy Power to win the Saudi Derby on 22 February. Back Ten Happy Rose at 16/1 with Paddy Power to win the 1351 Turf Sprint on 22 February.