Stayers Hurdle: Side with this Strong Leader at a nonsensical 14/1

Even before the Hatton’s Grace hurdle on 1 December (today at the time of writing), the improving Strong Leader looked like a serious candidate for the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. Indeed, following his G1 Liverpool Hurdle win at Aintree last April and his impressive reappearance win in the G2 Coral Long Distance Cup at Newbury, Olly Murphy’s stayer already looked like the most credible threat to reigning champion Teahupoo at Prestbury Park in March, for all that Gordon Elliot’s charge looked to tower over this market.

But the latter’s grip on the market looks a little less firm now. The top-rated stayer in England or Ireland was simply swatted aside by star mare Lossiemouth at Fairyhouse. True, the trip was several furlongs short of Teahupoo’s optimum, at least on ground that was faster than ideal. And Lossiemouth is a top-drawer mare who could well be on the cusp of superstardom.  But the Fairyhouse performance was still disappointing, and with no guarantee that Teahupoo will get the soft ground he thrives on at next spring’s Cheltenham Festival, he has to be taken on with the logical second favourite, who is still a double-figure price.

Teahupoo and Strong Leader aside, the top of the betting for the Stayers Hurdle is a dubious-looking list, as the main threats to the big two on paper are horses who are most unlikely to turn up. Lossiemouth shortened across the board in the aftermath of Sunday’s win, but a Champion Hurdle bid over the much shorter trip is a nigh-certainty now – the slow time of the Hatton’s Grace makes it clear this was a race one with speed rather than stamina. Impaire et Passe and Slade Steel have embarked on chasing careers, and Dancing City is about to do so. Bob Olinger’s flirtations with three miles have not gone well, and he was beaten on his reappearance by Home By The Lee, who hasn’t been up to the Stayers for the last three years (finishing figures: 653).  The horses further down the betting look inferior to Strong Leader, heavily exposed or both.

Given the paucity of credible competitors, The AntePoster thinks it overwhelmingly likely that Strong Leader will start in low single-digit figures if he continues to perform at his current level, let alone improve. To be clear, Teahupoo remains the one to beat for now. But his dominance of this division is not looking as fearsome as it was, and with his strong preference for soft ground potentially raising another question mark for Cheltenham, there’s a short time window to get a wager on the obvious alternative at a proper price. Win only.

Recommendation: Back Strong Leader to win the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham on 13 March 2025. Win only, 14/1 with William Hill and 888.