UAE Derby - beware the Flood Zone

This article is the fourth of our series dedicated to the undercard on Dubai World Cup night on 5 April. We would remind readers again that this field is not yet set in stone. While the horses discussed below are those comprising the “likely” final field for the UAE Derby as issued by the Dubai Racing Club, some of the horses below may end up being withdrawn, and it is still possible that others will be added. As with any antepost bet, therefore, any wagering at this stage comes with the risk of total loss even before the gates open. The numbers in brackets after each horse’s name are the best odds available at the time of writing.

UAE Derby – 9.5 furlongs on dirt, Meydan, 5 April

Last year’s UAE Derby turned out to contain a true superstar (albeit not much else), as Forever Young is now one of the world’s top dirt horses and a short-priced favourite for the Dubai World Cup itself this time around. Japan has flown over a cohort of four to retain this prize, while the US is represented by the favourite and the UK has a lively contender with strong dirt breeding who has been competing at this track for most of the Carnival season. What angles do we see at the prices? 

Flood Zone (5/2, Unibet): US-based colt who started out under trainer Victor Barboza, finishing second over 6 furlongs on his debut in December before then winning a maiden over half a furlong further in early January. Bought by Wathnan Racing and transferred to top US trainer Brad Cox in February, he was then put straight into the G3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct over a mile, where his starting price of 18/1 gives some indication of the leap in class he was considered to be making. Made a mockery of those odds, however, surging to the lead in the straight and never stronger than at the finish, winning by more than 3 lengths. What’s more, he earned a very high speed figure for that run (98 Beyer), putting him in the upper echelons of 3-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby trail. The trip out here comes as no surprise given his Middle Eastern connections, and the stamina-laden pedigree of this son of Frosted (out of a Curlin mare) means he could well improve for this step up in distance. Huge player.

Shin Forever (7/2 generally): Highly experienced for a young 3-year-old, having run six times in Japan prior to shipping to the Middle East. All those runs in his native country were on turf, predominantly over a mile (one race at 7 furlongs), but his sole win came in his debut race back in October. The switch to dirt for the Saudi Derby brought about a sea-change in his form, however: Led all the way (in keeping with his preferred running style) and was only overhauled by Golden Vekoma in the last furlong. On the face of it that form line justifies his place in the betting, but there have to be doubts over this son of Complexity’s ability to sustain his run over this extra furlong and a half, not least as he has faded and lost position(s) in the late stages of every race he has contested since his debut. We'll pass.

Heart of Honor (6-1, Unibet): Made his debut at Southwell in the UK in October last year (good closing second after tardy start) and was then flown out to Meydan for the Carnival season. Facile winner of a conditions race in December, equally impressive winner of a stronger conditions race in January where he comfortably saw off Royal Favour (impressive winner since, recently withdrawn from this race), with Undefeated a further six lengths back. Beaten 1.5 lengths by Golden Vekoma in the UAE 2000 Guineas next time but was closing strongly at the finish and that form looks strong now (conqueror subsequently won UAE Derby). He then started odds-on for the listed Al Bastakiya over this trip in late February, but – not for the first time – a slow start left him with a mountain to climb and he failed to reel in Galactic Star by a head. Headgear now enlisted to help him focus him early, and he looks the most obvious threat to the favourite for a savvy trainer who knows a quality dirt horse when he sees one. All eyes will be on how Heart of Honor handles the start and the first half furlong, but the much smaller field here than in the Al Bastakiya is very much in this closer’s favour.

Admire Daytona (12/1 generally): Has raced five times in his native Japan, in each case over a mile at Tokyo racecourse. Made his debut in October, but did not register maiden win until fourth attempt in early February. Was then wheeled back into action off a two-week break for the listed Hyacinth Stakes, where he came from far back to finish fourth, beaten 3.25 lengths (Don In The Moon 2 lengths ahead in third, Dragon 2 lengths behind in fifth). That Hyacinth form doesn’t look strong at this point –  the winner is due to run in Japan on Sunday 30 March –  but on visual impressions from that race the step up to 9.5 furlongs could possibly bring about improvement (mixed messages from pedigree).

Dragon (12/1 generally): The last of these to make his debut on 28 December over 10 furlongs at Nakayama, where he finished second. Duly got off the mark three weeks later in a maiden race over nine furlongs at Chukyo, where he ran out a nine-length winner. On the strength of that run he was upped to listed class in the 9-furlong Hyacinth Stakes where he finished a non-threatening fifth, behind Admire Daytona and Dragon, both of whom reoppose here. On the face of that performance there seems no reason for him to finish ahead of that pair, let alone win this race, but he is the least experienced of that trio and may have more upside.

Queen Azteca (12/1 generally): Showed enough on her only two-year-old start (4-length winner) in Sweden last September for connections to send her out to Dubai for a Carnival campaign. Only second on her first Meydan start in December but stepped up on that emphatically when running out a nine-length winner of a conditions race on her next start in January. Then captured the G3 UAE Oaks in late February, but that looks an extremely weak race (her starting prices was 1/5) and she only narrowly got the job done from a filly she had beaten easily the time before. What’s more, the UAE Oaks was run more than a second slower than the Al Bastikiya on the same card, which was contested by a various colts who oppose here. Looks to have lots on her plate.

Don In The Mood (14/1, Bet365 and BetVictor): Won on debut in October but well held in an allowance race on second start (sole race on soft ground). This duly resulted in him going off at 55/1 in his third start in January (allowance race) but he produced quite the betting shock by getting up to win. Was also dismissed in the betting (47/1) in the listed Hyacinth Stakes in February but belied his odds again, running well despite a wide trip to finish third, ahead of the reopposing Admire Daytona and Dragon. Has reasonable claims of finishing ahead of those two again in this race so quite odd that he's the biggest price of the three, but doubtful if that form is good enough to challenge for the major honours.

Galactic Star (16/1 generally): Won first start at Jebel Ali in January over six furlongs, then contested the Azizi Mina (conditions race) over a mile here at Meydan in early February. Only third – beaten five lengths – in that contest, which perhaps explains why this gelding was sent off at 18/1 for the listed Al Bastikiya later that month (in which Heart of Honor started at 4/5). In keeping with his breeding he improved markedly for the step up in trip and belied his lofty odds by surging clear in the final furlong and holding off the charge of the fast-finishing favourite. Did have a dream trip in that race compared to Heart of Honor, however, and looks unlikely to confirm those placings. That said, he is priced up as an outsider for this contest over the same course and distance, which might be overly dismissive. No forlorn hope.

Rafid (40/1 generally): Ran four times as a two-year-old in the US under the care of Antonio Sano, but without winning. Performed promisingly on Dubai debut in the UAE 2000 Guineas on 24 January, taking the lead 2 furlongs out before fading to 5th behind Golden Vekoma and Heart of Honor, ultimately being beaten seven lengths. The step up to this longer trip in the Al Bastakiya a month later saw him regress considerably – was always in a poor position and faded right out of it to be beaten 40 lengths. Did win well on 16 March in a conditions race at Jebel Ali, but that looks a very weak race that involved a drop back in trip to 7 furlongs, so hard to consider it a promising springboard for this contest. Has it all to do.

Undefeated (NON-RUNNER)

Summary: Despite strength in numbers, the Japanese contingent doesn’t really convince this year. Three of the quartet flown over here finished third, fourth and fifth in the same race in Japan last time (Hyacinth Stakes), and unless the winner of that race (Luxor Cafe) does something special in the Fukuryu Stakes this coming Sunday it’s difficult to rate that form highly. The other Japanese horse Shin Emperor – who carries the same Susumu Fujita colours as Forever Young – improved hugely for the switch to dirt last time in Riyadh, but wouldn’t necessarily be an improver for this step up in trip. Talented US colt Flood Zone should really have their measure, as he won the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct with a very fast speed figure, and 5/2 looks a fair price for him to outclass the field and march on to the Kentucky Derby. His biggest threat may well come from Heart of Honor, closely matched with Shin Emperor on a line through (absent) Golden Vekoma but almost double the price and a more convincing proposition over this distance. He looks a decent each-way bet. Of the outsiders, Galactic Star looks a tad overpriced.