Arc de Triomphe - Antepost Guide

Date of race: 6 October 2024                   Date of analysis: 1 October 2024

This document is an antepost analysis of the horses set to contest the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp on Sunday 6 October. Please bear in mind the following points before reading this document.

• This market remains an antepost event, so non-runner risk is still important.

  
  

• Particular attention should be paid to the “Chance of Running” below each horse, whereby one star implies that the horse has very little chance of turning up, five means running is a nigh certainty (bar injury). Some horses have major doubts over their participation.

  
  

• The “Price Appeal” section works on the same principle of 1-5 stars, but the key point to understand here is that the number of stars given is not an absolute assessment of the horse’s chance of winning but a relative assessment of their appeal as an antepost wager in view of the price at time of writing.

  
  

• This guide has embedded obsolescence by its nature.  Over the final days of the antepost market, the participation probabilities and prices of the horses listed will have changed, and this will inevitably affect their appeal as a bet. Any wagering should therefore always take into account the latest information available.

Enjoy the read and make sure to check out our expert guides to the Prix de la Foret and Prix de l'Opera. If you would like a pdf download of this document, please use the following link:

ArcdeTriompheRaceGuideTheAntePoster.pdf

Download PDF • 191KB

The AntePoster 1 October 2024

SOSIE (Tr. A Fabre)  |  Last 5 runs: 2-1311

Has stamped himself as a leading middle-distance colt this year. Fine third in Prix du Jockey Club to Look de Vega. Since stepped up in trip to Arc distance: easy winner of G1 Grand Prix de Paris (form boosted), then well on top in Prix Niel, a key trial for this race, emphatically reversing Jockey Club form with the winner. Seems to tick most boxes, right favourite, but he is quite short.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
9/2	★★★★★	★★★

LOOK DE VEGA (Tr. C Y Lerner)  |  Last 5 runs: 1-113

Long-time favourite following Jockey Club win that was just as impressive as that of last year’s Arc winner Ace Impact. Usurped in market after mediocre effort in Prix Niel, but trainer had flagged up his potential lack of fitness in advance of that race, and he was last off the bridle. Has to prove definitively that he stays this far, but still a hugely exciting prospect.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
11/2	★★★★★	★★★

SHIN EMPEROR (Tr. Y Yahagi)  |  Last 5 runs: 2-2533

Full brother to previous winner Sottsass was fifth in Japanese Guineas and third in Japanese Derby before his sights were set on Europe. Shrewdies were backing him for this before his Irish Champion Stakes third, in which he was slightly outpaced and short of room. Ran an excellent trial there, and just could be the one to end Japanese heartbreak in this race.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
13/2	★★★★★	★★★

LOS ANGELES (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 13114

Also coming here from the Irish Champion Stakes, finishing just behind Shin Emperor. That was clearly a trip short of his best, and this son of Camelot will be suited by a longer trip in softer ground, although how soft the ground will be on Sunday is unclear. A tough horse who may yet have upside, but with his grinding style he comes with a class question mark.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
7/1	★★★★★	★★

 DELIUS (Tr. J C Rouget)  |  Last 5 runs: 11132

Lovely Frankel colt who has only run five times in his career, all as a three-year-old. After three wins, he was third in the Grand Prix de Paris then second in a high-class renewal of Prix Niel, both times finishing behind Sosie (2.25 lengths and 1.5 lengths respectively). No clear reasons why he should overturn the form, but each of his races has been an improvement on the previous one.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
11/1	★★★★★	★★

BLUESTOCKING (Tr. R Beckett)  |  Last 5 runs: 11241

Tough and consistent filly who has performed commendably this season. Ideal trip looked a bit of a question mark but her second in King George (G/F), fourth in International (G/F), and first in Prix Vermeille (S) illustrate her class and versatility. However, these were tough races, and her ability to go again and produce what would likely need to be a career best is open to doubt. What’s more, dry spell puts a question market over her supplementation.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
12/1	★★★	★★

AL RIFFA (Tr. J P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 2-4621

Strapping Wootton Bassett colt who has taken a while to fulfil the promise showcased as a two-year-old. Ran City of Troy to half a length in soft-ground Eclipse before winning a weak German G1 by five lengths, but many others have taken a similar path to Arc victory in recent years. Yutaka Take rides, so will definitely be short in the international pools. Intriguing, overpriced. 

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
12/1	★★★★★	★★★★★

AVENTURE (Tr. C Ferland)  |  Last 5 runs: 21412

Three-year old filly and therefore in receipt of all the weight allowances, an advantage that has been exploited to good effect by many an Arc winner. Second in Vermeille on most recent start, a race in which the pace clearly held up despite the relatively quick time. Particularly impressive on deep ground, so dry forecast not ideal and connections apparently have slight preference for the Prix de l’Opera earlier on the card.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
20/1	★★	★★

MQSE DE SEVIGNE (Tr. A Fabre)  |  Last 5 runs: 2-1111

Winning machine of a mare who has been restricted to between a mile and ten furlongs for the last two seasons, racking up a remarkable tally of G1 victories. The Arc will be her first try at 12 furlongs, but on pedigree she is bred for it, and her record-holding Arc trainer has described her as having as good a chance as the favourite Sosie. Lots to like at a decent price, with drying ground a positive on the stamina front.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
20/1	★★★★★	★★★★★

AUGUSTE RODIN (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 02152

Sublime at his best, dreadful at his worst, but was on form in his last outing in the Irish Champion Stakes, beaten a neck after a titanic battle with new kid on the block Economics. Prefers faster ground, and the dry forecast up to Sunday at the time of writing makes that increasingly possible: would surely start at less than 10-1 if he runs, for all that there is non-runner risk here.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
25/1	★★★	★★★★

FANTASTIC MOON (Tr. S Steinberg)  |  Last 5 runs: 29121

Danedream and Torquator Tasso have shown recently that Germany can bring live ones to this race. That said, this raider was only 11th of 15 in this race last year after winning the Prix Foy, and on fast-ish ground that was favourable to him. Comes in with a different prep this time around (German G1 win in front of Dubai Honour) and just could be sitting on a big effort.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
33/1	★★★★★	★★★★

SPARKLING PLENTY (Tr. P Cottier)  |  Last 5 runs: 61136

Kingman filly who has stamped herself as one of the best of her generation. Good winner of the French Oaks and has twice caught the eye since as fast-finishing runner-up in both the 10-furlong Nassau at Goodwood and the 12-furlong Prix Vermeille where she was set an impossible task. Far from out of this if she runs, but all the narrative has her pointing towards the Prix d’Opera for fillies and mares.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
33/1	★	★

CONTINUOUS (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 15-513

2023 St Leger winner went off 14/1 for this race last year and caught the eye after unlucky-in running sixth. Bizarrely campaigned since, with this year’s performances well short of stellar three-year-old form, but it’s possible he wasn’t fully primed for any of them. No chance on recent form, but better ground may see him back to his best, and last year’s promise is very difficult to forget.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
33/1	★★★★★	★★★★

OPERA SINGER (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 1-3215

Standout prospect for leading honours in the big races in 2024 after her demolition job in Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend last year. Solid progression after injury this year, impressive Coronation Cup second followed by victory in the Nassau at Goodwood. Disappointed when fifth in Vermeille, however, and she’s now second favourite for the Prix de l’Opera, which looks a more likely destination and fit.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
33/1	★★	★★

SEVENNAS KNIGHT (Tr. A Fabre)  |  Last 5 runs: 61161

Classy stayer whose best form has been recorded over distances of around two miles. On a strict reading of his twelve-furlong form he has no hope whatsoever, but in the event of hock-deep ground this son of Camelot could conceivably stay on for a place. Forecast drying a weather therefore a negative, rain needed by the bucketload.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
50/1	★★★	★

SURVIE (Tr. N Clement)  |  Last 5 runs: 33217

Promising first two runs this season were followed by an excellent second in the Prix de Diane and a G2 win in the Prix du Malleret at Longchamp when stepped up to 12 furlongs. Disappointing when well beaten in the Vermeille, but that came after two-month break and she has a right to come on for it. Would need to step on Diane form, but still in Prix de l’Opera so uncertain runner in any case.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
50/1	★★	★★

SUNWAY (Tr. D Menuisier)  |  Last 5 runs: 27243

Group 1 winner at two, recently placed in both the Irish Derby and the St Leger. The former was particularly impressive, as he was beaten less than a length by Los Angeles, who is trading at a fraction of his price for this. Must answer serious class questions in the stiffest task he’s been set, but not impossible for a place at a huge price.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
50/1	★★★★★	★★★

ZARAKEM (Tr. J Reynier)  |  Last 5 runs: 6-1820

Ground-versatile and has run to an extremely high level having been second to Auguste Rodin in the Prince of Wales. Was well beaten in the Juddmonte International, the second of two poor runnings this year. Trainer believes he can produce another high-class performance if ridden differently, but he’ll have to run right back to his best and then some.  On the other hand, at 50-1 the doubts look to be heavily factored into his price.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
50/1	★★★★★	★★★★

LUXEMBOURG (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 40166

Stalwart of the O’Brien yard, dancing many a dance and recording a Group 1 victory in each of his four racing seasons. Strong suspicion that ten furlongs suits him best, however, as his only victory over the longer trip (this year’s Coronation Cup at Epsom) was won from the front against an incomparably weaker field. Uncertain runner in any case.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
66/1	★★	★

HAYA ZARK (Tr. A Fouassier)  |  Last 5 runs: 0-1132

Better than ever this season, winning the G1 Prix Ganay and running Mqse de Sevigne to less than a length in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan. Ran in keeping with his starting price of 107/1 last year, finishing second last, but that performance was on fairly quick ground and this fellow would ideally want it hock deep. Way overpriced if heavy rain materializes, but little sign of that five days out.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
66/1	★★★★★	★★★