Arc de Triomphe trials: What did we learn at Longchamp on Sunday?

Prix Foy

On paper, the Group 2 prize for older males looked by far the weakest of the three trials staged at Longchamp on Sunday, in keeping with its decline as a race of meaningful quality in recent years. The Foy duly delivered on that (lack of) promise as a pointer to the Arc de Triomphe, as this five-strong race was won by the gelding Iresine, chased home by another gelding in the form of Zarir. By virtue of what they now lack in their nether regions, neither is eligible for the big race in Paris three weeks hence.

Of the three “entires” in the race, little was expected of outsider Sacred Spirit and he was duly beaten 15 lengths. Feed the Flame, by contrast, is a Group 1 winner and much more was anticipated. Wearing blinkers for the first time, he faded out of contention completely and was pulled up. Possibly he hated the headgear experiment, but something else was presumably amiss too. Either way, he has never quite lived up to the reputation forged in the early days of his three-year-old season and must now be considered a very unlikely runner – not to mention an impossible winner – come 6 October.

Also disappointing, but not so drastically, was odds-on favourite Continuous, who entered the race as a dark horse for both the Arc and the Breeders Cup Turf in November, but ultimately only darkened his own reputation somewhat by fading into third place, beaten almost three lengths, having cut out the running in the absence of any of his rivals feeling inclined to do so. Not what you want to see in an odds-on favourite with ambitions at the very highest level.

As flagged up on this website last week, Continuous doesn’t lack a turn of foot, so to fade out of contention so rapidly in a race not run at a frenetic pace was concerning. Perhaps making the running was not to his liking. Perhaps he was not tuned to full fitness for this trial with bigger targets in mind. Or perhaps he did not care for the sticky, gluey ground that resulted from two days of sunshine on the soft Longchamp turf. Whatever the case, having failed to win the weakest of the three trials, he now recedes to the status of rank outsider for the Arc itself.

If Continuous does run in three weeks’ time, however, and the general steer was that he will, The Anteposter advises bettors not to dismiss his chances completely. Every horse has its price, and O’Brien’s horse clearly has some proper back class from his three-year-old season. For sure, things haven’t really sparked into life this year, but 50-1 with William Hill for an Arc victory in three weeks is eye-catching. On the evidence available, there is no superstar in this year’s field, and this prize has gone to horses with less on their CV than this St Leger winner. If he bounces back to top form – and he is in very good hands to do just that – he has a squeak.

Prix Niel

Look de Vega caught the eye. No, that’s not an error or authorial sarcasm. Having expressed grave doubts last week about the short-priced favourite being value to win this trial for three-year-old colts at a short price [see article], The Anteposter was not particularly surprised to see him finish third in the Prix Niel.  But there were things to be impressed about. He was last off the bridle for starters. Cutting out the running was evidently not what he wanted to do, and it was equally clear – from comments by the trainer as well as observations by third parties – that this colt was entering this particular boxing ring carrying more than an extra few pounds. Unsurprising therefore that he should hit a wall in the latter stages of the race and blow heavily afterwards. He will surely return to Longchamp a fitter horse in three weeks, when it would be no surprise to see him reverse the form with the two that finished ahead of him, particularly on softer ground. As a result of this defeat, Look de Vega has been pushed out from 7/2 to 13/2 (Hills) by the bookmakers, which looks something of an overreaction, for all that he still has to conclusively prove he stays twelve furlongs.

And what of winner Sosie? Well, he ran impressively enough. Fabre’s (male) stable star has clearly continued to improve since finishing third in the Prix du Jockey Club, some of which may be natural progression, some of which may be attributable to the step up to 12 furlongs. A player in the Arc? No question about it. But outright favouritism looks a bit far-fetched to The Anteposter at this point. The momentum behind the eye-catching Arc prospects from the Irish Champion Stakes [see article] is building. Add in a renewed challenge from his undercooked Prix Niel rivals and a strong crop of fillies and mares, and the generally available 9/2 top price at the time of writing looks skinny.

As for Delius, this colt was flagged up by The Anteposter as a delightfully appealing each-way play in the antepost market (Paddy Power offered 9/2 on him, with three places guaranteed, on a race that was bound to cut up and duly did). He had to give second best to Sosie, but seeing off the previous Arc favourite was none too shabby, not least because according to connections Delius too was not yet at peak fitness.  This colt is very much still in the mix (10-1 generally) for the Arc, as a dispassionate view of his evolving RPRs shows that every race he has run (five in total) has been better than the last. Does he have one more big step forward?

Few column inches need be wasted on the other two. Wintertraum probably outperformed as the outsider of the quintet, but equally he had good reason to finish relatively close up in what was the slowest of the three trials. No fanciful Arc entry. Ambiente Friendly has become his own worst enemy and simply won’t settle, though he may also have hated the ground. It’s very difficult to see what connections do next with this tricky customer, but the Arc dream is surely shattered now.

Prix Vermeille

This looked in advance to be a deep and competitive field, reflecting the fact that this fillies and mares “trial” is actually a Group 1, so a coveted prize in its own right (in stark contrast to the Foy and the Niel). And it also looks strong in hindsight: The pace set by one of the Wertheimer outsiders was deliberately brisk and the cream rose to the top – the first six home in this 12-horse field included the first five in the betting.

Bluestocking has now racked up an impressive sequence of Group 1 performances at the highest level and will almost certainly be supplemented for the Arc. She appears to handle any conditions, and backers will surely get a run for their money (best: 12/1 with Betfred) if she is not “over the top” after a busy summer. That is one slight question mark, however.

Bluestocking, with Rossa Ryan as the jockey, clinches victory in the Middleton Fillies' Stakes at York.

The second and third past the post, Aventure and Emily Upjohn, need viewing with caution as antepost prospects for the big race in three weeks’ time for different reasons. The former has two other options that weekend, the Prix de l’Opera over shorter and the Prix du Royallieu over further. This rather tempers enthusiasm, as does the fact that the owners already have the favourite in Sosie, which might prompt them to choose another race for her. However, Aventure (16/1 generally) would be very interesting if declared on soft ground, in which case The Anteposter would give her a good chance of reversing the form with the more aggressively campaigned Bluestocking. By contrast, Emily Upjohn will only be declared if the ground is decent, so here a meteorological waiting game of a different kind is called for. Just don’t expect 50/1 (B365) to last if the Indian Summer continues.

Of the next three to pass the post in the Vermeille, outsider Stay Alert ran a blinder on ground that was soft enough, while Opera Singer and Sparkling Plenty were mildly disappointing in fifth and sixth respectively. The latter pair look set to be dropped in trip now.

Finally, one note of caution for bettors thinking of backing any of the first three home in the Prix Vermeille for the big race on 6 October. While the fast time in which this race was run may reasonably be viewed as a strong indicator of its validity as a strong trial, there is also a flipside to that coin – the front three had quite the battle royal up the Longchamp straight. It is far from beyond the bounds of possibility that one or more of this trio may still be feeling these exertions in their legs in three weeks’ time. In particular, the colts contesting the Niel had an easier time of it.

Published 15:37 17/09/2024