Ascot Champions Day: Timing right for a two-pronged French assault on the QEII Stakes

Of the five marquee races scheduled for Champions Day on 19 October, one race in particular – the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes run over Ascot’s straight mile – stands out from an antepost perspective, simply because most of the top ten in the betting look doubtful participants to a greater or lesser degree.

Charyn, who tops the betting at a best price of 15/8, appears a certainty to turn up bar injury.  He has become the standout older European miler, as well as being a model of consistency, as figures this season of 112112 indicate. Now seemingly happy on both soft and fast ground, he is the rightful favourite and deserves to be the price he is. No quibbles there. That said, Charyn would be a bad antepost bet, as backing horses at 15/8 a month prior to a race is a strategy that can only impoverish in the long run. But he is by some margin the most likely winner.

Scroll further down the betting and things start to get interesting. Opera Singer is now a winner over ten furlongs, and while the step up to twelve didn’t appear to work for her in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last Sunday, a return to ten at the same venue for the Prix d’Opera on Arc weekend is just one of many options available, with Ascot’s Champion Stakes another race in which she holds an entry. Fallen Angel is headed to the Opera as per latest newsflow, so reappearing 13 days later looks doubtful. Facteur Cheval is being trained (rather ambitiously, it must be said) up to the Breeders Cup Classic at Del Mar just two weeks after Champions Day. He won’t take in the QEII a fortnight earlier.

The list goes on: Henry Longfellow is badly out of form and his future targets are unknown. Fast-ground-loving Notable Speech is the favourite for the Breeders Cup Mile and will not go anywhere near Ascot before challenging for that huge pot. Haatem is out for the season. Inspiral returns for the Sun Chariot in early October, which (according to connections) may well be her swansong: If there is to be another run, the sunshine of California looks more appealing as a final target for this fast-ground mare, as her one trip to Champions Day was not a success. Nashwa has been absent for almost half a year, and while Ascot is on her radar, she is doubly entered that day (QEII and Champion Stakes) and also has other options. And the list of doubtful contenders doesn’t stop there (but this non-exhaustive description will).

Three horses should be on the antepost bettor’s radar. Tamfana runs next in the Sun Chariot (G1 mile race for fillies and mares at Newmarket on Arc weekend), for which she has been backed into 5/2, having been a bizarre 7/1 [see article here] even after Porta Fortuna’s defection had been clearly signposted by her trainer. Were she to win that, a quick return in the QEII would be a logical next step to consolidate her position as a top miler, but it should be noted that, like Nashwa, she is also in the Champion Stakes on the same day. An antepost bet at this point would therefore carry a high degree of risk.

But what really piques the interest are the prices of two French challengers.  The switch of trainer for Big Rock (20/1) has been little short of a disaster for the most part, but the case for the trainer’s defence would no doubt rest heavily on the argument that this four-year-old has not had his ground this season. His demolition of last year’s QEII field in the mud is impossible to forget, as he won by six lengths from subsequent Dubai Turf winner Facteur Cheval and multiple G1-winning filly Tahiyra, with a further nine lengths back to the fourth horse home.

Intriguingly, Big Rock now looks to be on his way back, having run his best race by some way this year on unsuitably firm ground in Canada last weekend. Indeed, on the ratings he ran to the same level as he did in his final race before heading to Ascot last year.  Should he get his ground on Champion’s Day – and it is odds-on that there will at least be G/S somewhere in the going description – the chance of a repeat victory for Maurizio Guarnieri’s charge is nothing like as remote as 20/1. A win-only bet with the few bookmakers quoting this price (including B365) is therefore recommended.

Another highly appealing and less speculative proposition is another French challenger. There has been no newsflow in the British or Irish press about Metropolitan recently, which perhaps explains why he is still available at a double-figure price (12/1 generally). But we do know the plan for him: In the run-up to the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp (won by Tribalist from Charyn on 10 September), leading French racing newspaper Paris Turf featured an article in which trainer Mario Baratti stated clearly that his star colt would sit out the Moulin and be rested until Ascot’s QEII to keep him fresh for that prize.

Metropolitan has raced twice since his victory in the Poule d’Essai de Poulains (French 2000 Guineas). Both of these runs were in Group 1 races, and he performed to a high level on both occasions. In the St James’s Palace Stakes at Ascot, he failed to get a clear run but still finished a good third behind the top-drawer Rosallion (now finished for the season). In the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville in August he finished second behind Charyn, albeit beaten a hefty three lengths. But what is notable about these two races is that they were both run on fast or at least fast-ish ground (don’t get The AntePoster started on the topic of French going descriptions). The ground at Ascot is almost certain to be softer come late October, which gives Metropolitan a good chance of being seen to even better effect in his next Group 1 start.

All in all, Metropolitan now looks to be the next key player in the race after Charyn, with his price likely to fall into mid-single-digit figures when the final field takes shape. Taking the 12/1 is therefore recommended, either each-way or (more efficiently) playing win-only with a view to laying part of the bet on the exchanges nearer to the day. But some sort of hedging approach looks logical.  After all, if Charyn turns up firing on all cylinders, even Metropolitan’s best race might not be enough to land the spoils.

Published at 21:45 18/09/2024