Coral Eclipse: French Derby winner to make best Impression at 13/2

The Coral Eclipse, one of the few races in the calendar where the sponsor's name is inextricably linked to the event in the minds of the racing public, is eagerly awaited as the flat season moves into July, as it provides the first opportunity to gauge the relative merits of the crop of three-year-old colts as they face their elders for the first time.

On the face of it, the current Classic generation (who comprise six of the 11-strong field) would appear to be up against it, because this year's crop of older horses appear to be a formidable bunch:

- Ombudsman, brilliant winner of the Prince of Wales at Ascot and now rated by some organizations as the world's best racehorse after being brought along gently by Gosden père et fils;

- Anmaat, runner-up to Ombudsman at Ascot three weeks ago and winner of the Champion Stakes at the same course last October for trainer Owen Burrows;

- Almaqam, conqueror of Ombudsman last time out with the potential for further improvement for in-form trainer Ed Walker;

- White Birch, who boasts a decent sprinkling of top-class form over the Eclipse trip for Irish handler John Joseph Murphy;

- and Sosie, on a Group 1 three-timer and managed by none other than legendary trainer Andre Fabre.

That's quite the quintet.

But actually, this theoretically strong challenge from the older brigade is likely to be nothing of the sort. With the southern UK experiencing the longest spell of warm and sunny weather in many a moon, and predictions of rain in the run-up to Sandown's most prestigious flat race having been hastily withdrawn as the high pressure inferno persists, the likes of Almaqam, Anmaat, and White Birch look to be unlikely runners and at a slight disadvantage at least if they do turn up. There are certainly plenty of negative noises along with desperate meteorological pleading coming from connections. Which suddenly means the older brigade are likely to be represented by just the charges of Gosden and Fabre. The AntePoster would not be surprised at all to see Ombudsman win. He's the right favourite, but as per our article on the Price of Wales (see here), we are not wholly sold on the notion that he is as good as he looked in that race. He also faces the prospect of rattling fast ground for the second successive race – it's interesting that Gosden snr. has previously observed that this horse doesn't want extremes of ground, and worth pointing out that some horses go just fine on fast ground the first time they encounter it but not necessarily when asked to act on it again. In short, we do not perceive Ombudsman to be what the Americans would call a "Lock" for this race: 13/8 does not appeal.

As for Sosie, the manner of his two Group 1 wins this season leaves a bit to be desired. He was "all out" (as per Racing Post analysis team) to beat Map of Stars – who has rather let the form down since – in the Prix Ganay in April. It was then striking how Sardinian Warrior pulled well clear of Sosie in the Prix d'Ispahan, and how hard the French horse had to be ridden by jockey Maxime Guyon before stamina and class kicked in and Sosie was able to reel in Gosden's talented miler in the shadow of the post. We think Sosie faces a much tougher test here (as does trainer Fabre), particularly with the ground riding fast, as his true calling is surely over the Arc trip of 12 furlongs. The current 9/2 looks better than the 7/2 available a few days ago but this horse is running here primarily for breeding reasons not racing logic, and he's a pass. Given the above, and particularly in view of the possibility of a much-reduced field, The AntePoster thinks this race is ripe for an each-way play against the older generation. Not with Ruling Court (16/1), who looks to have been well and truly messed about with since his excellent Guineas win. Trained for the Epsom Derby until the very eve of that race, but then suddenly withdrawn for ground reasons and sent back to racing over a mile at Ascot just ten days later. Which didn't work for him at all. Perhaps he can bounce back here over this intermediate trip, but equally he may – in hindsight – have been at an advantage at Newmarket as the only horse of that race to have had some Dubai sun on his back from earlier in the year.

Nor with Hotazhell (33/1), who was a decent two-year-old but has yet to prove he is a top-class three-year-old. Stablemate (and fellow three-year-old) Green Impact has not turned out to be the horse Jessica Harrington was hoping for and we wonder if she is in for disappointment for the second time in the space of a week, as Hotazhell's best performance as a two-year-old (by some margin) was achieved on soft ground, and the likelihood of fast summer ground here raises a big question mark.

There would be worse each-way bets than Stanhope Gardens in our view. Ralph Beckett's colt is the least exposed horse in the field, and was one of the very few horses in the Derby to catch the eye (positively!) of those who finished out of the places. He ran several impressive sectionals to loom up and press the leaders only to wilt in the final furlong, possibly on ground that was too slow. Back down at ten furlongs here, he's interesting to us at 25/1 at the time of writing.

But a better bet in our view is the French Derby winner Camille Pissarro for the all-conquering Aidan O'Brien and the Ballydoyle stable based in County Tipperary. He was a a good Group 1 winner at two (with the likes of Field of Gold and Henri Matisse well behind him) once he got his act together. Was then an outstanding close-up third in the French Guineas (Poule d'Essai des Poulains) from a hugely disadvantageous stall position: reverse the draw with Henri Matisse in that race and you surely reverse the result. The winner then ran an excellent race behind miling superstar Field of Gold in the St James's Palace Stakes. For his part, Camille Pissarro ran out a convincing winner of the French Derby (Prix du Jockey Club) last time, showing a high cruising speed and a proper turn of foot when asked to go and win his race. Fourth-placed horse Trinity College issued a serious form stamp at Royal Ascot, winning the Hampton Court Stakes pretty much as he liked.

With the peerless Ryan Moore likely to be aboard, who rides Sandown (as he does most other tracks) superbly, a run for the backer's money looks assured, and a first-three placing looks odds-on as we see it, hence we like the each-way angle on Pissarro. And with that 10lb allowance giving this colt a serious weight advantage, we think a win is quite feasible – at the very least more so than the one-in-seven(-ish) that 13/2 represents.

If there is fly in the ointment, it is the presence of stablemate Delacroix (8/1), who looks a talented sort in his own right and is clearly running on his merits (unlike Expanded at 66/1, who will presumably be assigned a pace-making role if declared at the 48-hour stage). Delacroix had a simply shocking Derby, but had previous given dual Derby winner Lambourn weight and a beating, so can hardly be ignored. That said, probably not too much should be read into that form line on the duel Derby hero's first run of the season.

The "ointment fly" aspect is the slight possibility that Ryan Moore might choose Delacroix for his mount in the race, which would be a clear negative on two counts (loss of best jockey, stable doubt over Pissarro's chances for this race). But in our view this possibility is clearly factored into the price: if the name "R. Moore" were already firmly inked in brackets beside Pissarro's name, he would surely be trading at a much shorter price. And we don't believe Moore will seriously entertain jumping ship to Delacroix, a son of Dubawi, on fast summer ground.

Recommendation: Back Camille Pissarro each-way at 13/2 with William Hill, 888, or Coral to win the Coral Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday 5 July. Each-way recommendation only applies before this race gets to the 48-hour declaration stage (possibility of less than 8 runners and therefore only two places being paid out for each-way bets).